The Hill The Hill's Senate ratings: Democrats likely to retain Senate control By Cameron Joseph and Alexandra Jaffe - 10/26/12 06:38 PM ET
Democrats are looking increasingly likely to keep control of the upper chamber with less than a month to go until Election Day as Republican attacks have failed to take hold in a number of close races. CONNECTICUT: Move from Tossup to Lean Democratic Despite a barrage of negative ads and a monumental funding disparity, Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has managed to keep a consistent lead in most polls of the race, and Connecticut's blue lean may be too much for Republican Linda McMahon to overcome. Though McMahon worked hard to define Murphy early on, outside groups came in to pick up the slack caused by her self-funding advantage, and have been able to drive her negatives up in recent weeks, indicating McMahon may be seeing a repeat of her failed 2010 run. There's still time and funds left, however, for the former WWE CEO to bring out heavy artillery in the final weeks -- but it remains unclear what would move the needle in her favor at this point. MAINE: Move from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic Republican hopes for their candidate, Charlie Summers, to eke out a win over independent Angus King have waned in recent weeks, as it seems increasingly unlikely that Democrat Cynthia Dill can draw enough support away from King to create an opening for Summers. That was the hope all along, but Dill seems to have hit her polling ceiling, and King's held a steady double-digit lead in recent polls. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, formerly bullish enough to launch a buy in the state, has since withdrawn their money. MASSACHUSETTS: Move from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic President Obama's coattails are long and growing in this deep-blue state, and they may ultimately simply be too long for Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) to overcome. Though he's based his entire campaign, and much of his term in the Senate, on his independent appeal to Massachusetts voters, Democrat Elizabeth Warren's effort to tie him to a potential Republican takeover of the Senate may be taking hold, as there've been no signs that Warren's lead -- however slight -- is fluctuating. HAWAII: Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic Every public poll since Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) won her August primary has shown her with a double-digit lead over former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R), and few outside groups are spending on the race, a sign they've written Lingle off. MICHIGAN: Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) has had a number of missteps in his campaign, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) has a big cash advantage, and Mitt Romney's decision not to make a play for the state has hurt Hoekstra's chances. National Republicans admit this seat is likely off the table. PENNSYLVANIA: Move from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has been slow out of the blocks and businessman Tom Smith (R) has already spent millions of his own money accusing Casey of supporting President Obama's "war on coal." A Friday poll from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Casey with a 12-point lead but recent public polling has shown his lead to be much narrower, and the Democratic outside group Majority PAC's decision to start spending there this week shows at least some Democrats feel they need to shore him up. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
