Democrats are looking increasingly likely to keep control
of the upper chamber with less than a month to go until
Election Day as Republican attacks have failed to take
hold in a number of close races.
CONNECTICUT: Move from Tossup to Lean Democratic
Despite a barrage of negative ads and a monumental funding
disparity, Rep. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) has managed to keep
a consistent lead in most polls of the race, and
Connecticut's blue lean may be too much for Republican
Linda McMahon to overcome. Though McMahon worked hard to
define Murphy early on, outside groups came in to pick up
the slack caused by her self-funding advantage, and have
been able to drive her negatives up in recent weeks,
indicating McMahon may be seeing a repeat of her failed
2010 run. There's still time and funds left, however, for
the former WWE CEO to bring out heavy artillery in the
final weeks -- but it remains unclear what would move the
needle in her favor at this point.
MAINE: Move from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic
Republican hopes for their candidate, Charlie Summers, to
eke out a win over independent Angus King have waned in
recent weeks, as it seems increasingly unlikely that
Democrat Cynthia Dill can draw enough support away from
King to create an opening for Summers. That was the hope
all along, but Dill seems to have hit her polling ceiling,
and King's held a steady double-digit lead in recent
polls. The National Republican Senatorial Committee,
formerly bullish enough to launch a buy in the state, has
since withdrawn their money.
MASSACHUSETTS: Move from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic
President Obama's coattails are long and growing in this
deep-blue state, and they may ultimately simply be too
long for Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) to overcome. Though
he's based his entire campaign, and much of his term in
the Senate, on his independent appeal to Massachusetts
voters, Democrat Elizabeth Warren's effort to tie him to a
potential Republican takeover of the Senate may be taking
hold, as there've been no signs that Warren's lead --
however slight -- is fluctuating.
HAWAII: Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Every public poll since Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) won
her August primary has shown her with a double-digit lead
over former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R), and few outside
groups are spending on the race, a sign they've written
Lingle off.
MICHIGAN: Move from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) has had a number of missteps
in his campaign, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) has a big
cash advantage, and Mitt Romney's decision not to make a
play for the state has hurt Hoekstra's chances. National
Republicans admit this seat is likely off the table.
PENNSYLVANIA: Move from Likely Democratic to Lean
Democratic
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has been slow out of the blocks and
businessman Tom Smith (R) has already spent millions of
his own money accusing Casey of supporting President
Obama's "war on coal." A Friday poll from the Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee showed Casey with a 12-point
lead but recent public polling has shown his lead to be
much narrower, and the Democratic outside group Majority
PAC's decision to start spending there this week shows at
least some Democrats feel they need to shore him up.
