Seems mostly plausible. Of course, he doesn't factor in the globe-shattering revival I'm planning to foment 20 years from now…
On Dec 18, 2012, at 12:41 PM, [email protected] wrote: > > > from the site : silouan > > What will American Christianity look like in 50 years? > > > I was asked this in an online forum, and my answer got too long to manage. > Here’s my infallible prediction. How did I do? > > Orthodoxy: Little visible change, zero substantive change. Increasing numbers > and cultural impact. Progress toward a single American Archdiocese, but still > not there yet. > Catholicism: Neither women priests nor married priests will happen. > Increasing disaffection among liberal American Catholics leading to a > significant decrease in attendance. Identification as Catholic will be > increasingly cultural rather than creedal. This trend, combined with > decreasing numbers of men seeking the priesthood, will force additional > parish churches to close. This will be slightly offset by conversions from > Protestantism, resulting in American Catholic liturgy and pastoral care > becoming effectively more traditional. In northern Europe, Catholicism may > fade into a cultural memory, but in North America, a leaner, more boldly > traditional Catholicism will recover its equilibrium and continue to be a > voice of conscience and stability. > Reformed Christians: Continuing personality issues, but overall the hardcore > Reformed will still look and act a lot like they do today, because (almost > uniquely among Protestants) Reformed folks know and value their tradition. > The edgy/emergey segment will contribute a few cultural differences. > Lutherans, Episcopalians, Presbyterians, UCC: Increasing convergence so that > they resemble each other almost interchangeably, while de-emphasizing > troublesome doctrinal issues until their emphasis on social issues rather > than personal salvation turns them into Christian-branded social service > agencies. In each movement the conservative outliers will continue to peel > off in schisms embodying a previous generation’s norm. Many of these etremely > conservative daughter groups will identify strongly with the little-o > orthodox “Great Tradition” (cf. Tom Oden) > Anglicanism outside the US and UK: Few significant or visible changes, except > increasing numbers, especially in Africa and Latin America, where Anglicanism > is conservative in liturgy and ethos. > Conservative Anglicans, Lutherans, Methodists in North America: I foresee > growth and prosperity for individual parishes and dioceses, but overall a > continuing fragmentation. Fifty years ago, these groups were culturally > relevant and could provide nostalgia for returning Christians; now, in > increasingly-unchurched America, they’re culturally unfamiliar but not yet > old enough to make a virtue of ancient weirdness the way Eastern Orthodox do. > Non-charismatic nondenominations will find their kids growing up effectively > charismatic nondenoms, with more affinity for styles of contemporary music > than for their parents’ doctrinal self-definition. The trend of people > choosing congregations based on music and childcare will continue to grow. > In-depth teaching of historical doctrine will continue to be a novelty. > Baptist will continue to be a useless word for describing a set of beliefs or > practices, as practically every form of Christian belief and worship can be > found among self-described Baptists. > Charismatic nondenominations: Same story. In the absence of doctrinal > accountability, these will continue to generate new approaches and practices > every decade or two. > Old-school Pentecostals (e.g. Foursquare, Assemblies of God, Church of God in > Christ, Church of God of Prophecy) in suburbs and wealthy areas will continue > to develop in unpredictable ways, ensuring that every generation is nostalgic > for a lost experience and baffled by what their churches have become. In the > 90s and 00s, the Toronto Blessing, Brownsville Revival, Kansas City Prophets, > and new prosperity teachings revisited mid-20th-century phenomena such as the > Latter Rain, Manifest Sons of God, and the earlier health-and-prosperity > movement springing from EW Kenyon. But the more recent iteration was > characterized by a new cultural ignorance of Christian belief or history, > which freed it to become crazier, faster. By contrast, change in urban, > inner-city contexts and in rural areas will be minimal: Urban churches will > continue to be matriarchal and rural churches patriarchal. > TL;DR: in 50 years you’ll see recognizable Orthodox, Catholics and Reformed… > and a vast spectrum of Everybody Else, many of them changing in significant > ways and seeing that as a virtue. > > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
