Hi Billy, On Jan 21, 2013, at 8:59 AM, [email protected] wrote: > Yet Morgan Stanley stands resolutely behind its 2010 prediction that India > will be growing faster than China by the middle of this decade. > > It isn’t going to happen, India’s better demographics notwithstanding. > > Depends on how you define middle. I agree 2015 seems likely. But I'd take an even-money bet that by 2018, India will be surging and China will be in crisis.
-- Ernie P. > For one thing, many of India’s youths are unskilled and work as peddlers or > not at all. For another, despite all the reforms instituted by India since > its move away from socialism in 1991, much more would have to change. > Corruption, inefficiency, restrictive trade practices and labor laws have to > be addressed. > > Democratic it may be, but India’s ability to govern is compromised by > suffocating bureaucracy, regular arm-wrestling with states over prerogatives > like taxation and deeply embedded property rights that make implementing > China-scale development projects impossible. Unable to modernize its horribly > congested cities, India’s population has remained more rural than China’s, > further depressing growth. > > “China” and “corruption” may be almost synonymous to many, but India was > ranked even worse in corruption in Transparency International’s > annualCorruption Perceptions Index. At its best, the Indian justice system — > a British legacy — grinds exceptionally slowly. > > To be sure, summary executions don’t occur in India, and its legal system is > more transparent and rule-based than China’s. But a recent visit coincided > with the tragic gang rape of a young Indian woman that led to her death; the > government’s ham-handed initial response was to ban protesters from > assembling and impound vans with tinted windows like the one in which she was > abducted. > > India’s rigid social structure limits intergenerational economic mobility and > fosters acceptance of vast wealth disparities. In Mumbai, where more than > half the population lives in slums often devoid of electricity or running > water, Mukesh Ambani spent a reported $1 billion to construct a 27-story home > in a residential neighborhood. > Don’t get me wrong — I am hardly advocating totalitarian government. But we > need to recognize that success for developing countries is about more than > free elections. > > While India may not have the same “eye on the prize” so evident in China, it > should finish a respectable second in the developing world sweepstakes. It > just won’t beat China. > > > -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
