Hi Billy,

On Sep 19, 2013, at 1:36 PM, [email protected] wrote:

> The four-year campus experience is simply vanishing. At the California State 
> University system, the largest university complex in the world, well under 20 
> percent of students graduate in four years despite massive student aid. Fewer 
> than half graduate in six years.

I'm as bearish on university as anybody, but it is silly to say the four-year 
university will "vanish."

Of course we will have massive contraction, but mostly in the middle.  Top-tier 
universities will continue to do fine, as will many small liberal arts colleges.

It is everything in the middle that will be massively squeezed.  A few will 
adapt brilliantly (my money is in San Jose State making the transition).  
Others will resist and fight the change until they go belly up.   Most of the 
rest will probably get slowly assimilated into whatever the new norm is, albeit 
with a very different financial and personnel structure than they have now…

-- Ernie P.

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