Radical Centrism and the Future Ernie: Helpful comments, some of them, anyway. You, personally, have done enough. That is, it would be far better for me to see what I can come up with on my own, see if it flies, and if it doesn't, there are several other airplanes in the hangar that maybe will. Some of what I said, that you interpreted, assumed what you seem to think was not taken for granted. When Tom Sawyer gets his million $$ check, for instance, if the purpose is developing a pilot, that money not only pays him is pays for carpenters to build sets, hairdressers for actresses, dollies for studio cameras, lawyers, talent scouts to line up and sign up actors, and you name it. I don't know what his cut is, but maybe 5% of the total; he writes the script, consults with the director, etc, and makes sure the whole thing is done right. If the pilot looks good, then comes the 50 million $$ part of the project, shooting multiple episodes for broadcast TV, advertising, writing and re-writing and everything else you can think of. But first the pilot has to be damned good. And the pilot can be judged from a number of different angles. I'm assuming this process. Anyway, to get anything done requires, first and foremost, commitment. After that comes, in order, talent (plus knowledge to make talent possible), and resources to get the job done. Depending on the project / product there may be a need for teamwork and in all those cases without it there is no possibility of success. I look at RC as a noble cause, the political equivalent of a religion. Well, OK, the analogy is imperfect, but to make a point. If a political or philosophical cause is not as important as a religion it sometimes is, and at times it may be more important. This being the case, and for me it is -whatever it may be for you or anyone else- it deserves commitment and the action that follows from commitment. And maximum feasible investment. All that I have to give is time but I'm not sure what else is more valuable. This cannot mean 100% of my time but I'd guess that, all things added up, it certainly comes in at 55% or so. You have seen only a fraction of what I have done -partly because a good deal of it still is incomplete, 2/3rd of project A completed, 1/4th of project B, half of project C, and so forth. You'll have to take me at my word, but there is a lot of stuff and all of it, at least when it survives final edits, is first rate material. New America has some good stuff too, and in some areas (think of Fallows' work) I cannot compete at all. But what is more relevant, Lind and Halstead, I don't see where they compete at all with my work. That's the magnitude of what is going on. "Magnitude." The word has meaning even if the $25 million or so New America budget is a drop in the bucket compared with Apple. But you look at RC as a minor factor in the grand scheme of things. You've never said any such thing but I cannot conclude something else. Unfortunately, the way it seems to me, you are working with a concept whereby RC -our "West Coast" version- is no better than a hobby horse. Strictly a side show, not all that important, easy to defer for 10 years. As if, to use the religion analogy, my religion is so "important" (said sarcastically) that if I defer it for 10 years, so what? To use another metaphor, the Right is career obsessed, the Left is Cause obsessed. On that scale I am utterly Cause obsessed and there is no other way for me to look at RC. I look ahead and, politically, I see Important Issue #1 in 2014 as RC and the same for 2015, 2016, 2017, etc, as far ahead as you can take it. For you -my perception, but based on things you've actually said- whatever is number uno for this year or next, RC doesn't really kick in until 2025 or thereabouts. This, it seems to me is where we have a serious difference. I cannot really disentangle my religious views from my understanding of RC, one reinforces the other, each are essential. So I cannot imagine saying -or even thinking- my religious views will only become important to me in 2025. Its a package, in other words. I don't see where -which may be a function of not knowing some things which maybe simply you have not said- RC is much of a Cause in your mind, something worth time commitment -until, in one scenario anyway, there may be time for it, in 2025 or thereabouts. Anyway, there is no point in belaboring any of this. The effort is totally useless. You have already made a different kind of commitment -and in one sense it is as smart as anything gets- that the future is Apple and the corporate world. My commitment is to creating a philosophy that might, some day, change the entire society, starting with its political system, in dramatic ways, toward a very different future than anyone in corporate America is remotely thinking. I know very well who has 90% of political power. Basically, I am seeking to eventually deny all political power to those who now have it. The way I look at it, this is fundamental to RC. We are governed by amoral incompetents and this cannot be allowed to stand. For all I know it may take until 2025 to bring this about but it is as clear as anything gets that if I don't take this deadly seriously each and every year between now and 2025 there is no chance at all that there could possibly be significant changes in 2025. Simple as that. I know what I have to do, as much as I can do it. I know what I could do with professional level resources but since they are not available at this time, I will need to do what I can, regardless. But I'll tell you one thing, the minute there are professional-level resources is the minute I will do my damnedest to organize a movement. That is, to do everything possible to create a team of talented and dedicated people to make RC happen. RC isn't some kind of "hobby" for me. It is superior to all other political philosophies now in existence. I wish I could give it more than 55% but physically that is impossible, but it has that 55%. If you prefer to call this "whining" that it up to you. I prefer to think of it as being prophetic. Billy ======================================== 2/5/2014 4:56:22 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, [email protected] writes:
HI Billy, On Feb 4, 2014, at 3:21 PM, [email protected] wrote: > Ernie: > Somewhere along the way I came across some sage wisdom to the effect > that the best way to kill creativity is by reflexive nay-saying. > This can be annoying when the premise of the nay-saying is factually incorrect. I feel like you want to get credit for *having* an idea. I only give people credit for *developing* an idea. >> (1)Ideas are almost worthless. (2)Execution is everything. > > (1) Not literally true, but I get the point > (2) Well, yeah. However, you yourself made it a point to me a year ago > how the high-rollers in the computer biz do things, ie, > no real business plans, essentially kick ideas around and those > that pass the smell test are green-lighted I think you may be misunderstanding what ‘green light’ means > Thinking about it, while I am aghast, I believe I understand how this is possible. > > Hot Idea #4, say, gets the go-ahead. Why? Joe Blow has certain talents > and X amount of 'bankable' knowledge -everyone know this. > Similar to what Tom Sawyer has said about the TV/Movie biz > A studio knows what Tom can do, all he needs are some rough ideas > and if studio execs see a market then it is "run with it, here's a million $$" > Only then, check in hand, does Tom develop a pilot or write a script. The full statement is: “Ideas are worthless APART from a development process AND a deployment mechanism.” If you *know* what the process is for developing and deploying an idea, THEN the idea can be extremely valuable. The reason large companies can make bets like that is that they KNOW the process that will be used to develop the idea and deploy it to the market. They almost NEVER write a blank check for the full amount. They create various intermediate milestones, and release funds each step of the way as the idea is proved out. > Actually I think I do need some capital so that I can get some damned > good ideas off the ground. But, so I take it, since the ideas are > not relevant to Apple they are, by definition, meaningless. > Not about everything, to be sure, but as a rule of thumb. > I have long ago figured that much out. Ernie says it is a bad idea. > Does it fit in with the Apple universe? If not, therefore it is a bad idea > no matter how good it actually is. Not fair. Some of your ideas really are bad, but most of them are good ideas. But they’re *just* ideas. > I don't need money ??? > > Oh, yeah? Of course you WILL need money. But first you need to *prove out* you idea to the point where it is worth investing in. http://www.quora.com/Startup-Advice-and-Strategy/As-first-time-entrepreneurs -what-part-of-the-process-are-people-often-completely-blind-to/answer/Mike-S ellers > An idea is not a design > A design is not a prototype > A prototype is not a program > A program is not a product > A product is not a business > A business is not profits > Profits are not an exit > And an exit is not happiness. The reason I get annoyed is that you whine about nobody giving you money to build a Product when all you have is an Idea. You do NOT need money to turn an idea into an actual design. That just takes time and effort. And I know you’re fully capable of doing the research. But the critical factor in a good design is *making the right tradeoffs*. Which requires understanding where previous attempts made the *wrong* tradeoffs, and ruthlessly cutting anything that isn’t essential for the survival of the product. Show me a solid *Design* that demonstrates you understand and are willing to make the necessary tradeoffs, and I WILL work with you to get the money to build a Prototype. — Ernie P. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
