Nick Bostrom >From Wikipedia Nick Bostrom (born Niklas Boström on 10 March 1973_[1]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-1) ) is a _Swedish_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden) _philosopher_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy) at _St. Cross College_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Cross_College) , _University of Oxford_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxford) known for his work on _existential risk_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk) , the _anthropic principle_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle) , _human enhancement_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_enhancement) ethics, the _reversal test_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversal_test) , and _consequentialism_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequentialism) . He holds a _PhD_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PhD) from the _London School of Economics_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_School_of_Economics) (2000). He is the founding director of both The _Future of Humanity Institute_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) and the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology as part of the _Oxford Martin School_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Martin_21st_Century_School) at Oxford University._[2]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note -2) He is the author of over 200 publications,_[3]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-3) including _Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies) and Anthropic Bias. He has been awarded the _Eugene R. Gannon Award_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gannon_Award) and has been listed in _Foreign Policy's_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Policy_(magazine)) _Top 100 Global Thinkers_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FP_Top_100_Global_Thinkers) list. Early life and education Bostrom was born in 1973 in _Helsingborg_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsingborg) , _Sweden_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden) ._[4]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-4) He pursued postgraduate studies in theoretical physics and philosophy at Stockholm University, and computational neuroscience at King’s College in London. He got his PhD from the London School of Economics in 2000. He held a teaching position at Yale University (2000-2002), and he was a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oxford (2002-2005)._[5]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-5) Philosophy Existential risk An important strand of Bostrom’s research concerns the future of humanity and long-term outcomes._[6]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-6) _[7]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-7) He introduced the concept of an _existential risk_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk) , which he defines as one in which an "adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential." In the 2008 volume "Global Catastrophic Risks", editors Bostrom and Cirkovic characterize the relation between existential risk and the broader class of global catastrophic risks, and link existential risk to _observer selection effects_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias#Observer_selection) _[8]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-8) and the _Fermi paradox_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) ._[9]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-9) In In a 2013-paper in the journal Global Policy, Bostrom offers a taxonomy of existential risk and proposes a reconceptualization of sustainability in dynamic terms, as a developmental trajectory that minimizes existential risk._[10]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-10) Bostrom has argued that, from a consequentialist perspective, even small reductions in the cumulative amount of existential risk that humanity will face is extremely valuable, to the point where the traditional utilitarian imperative—to maximize expected utility—can be simplified to the Maxipok principle: maximize the probability of an OK outcome (where an OK outcome is any that avoids existential catastrophe)._[11]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-11) _[12]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-12) He has suggested that technology policy aimed at reducing existential risk should seek to influence the order in which various technological capabilities are attained, proposing the Principle of _Differential Technological Development_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Differential_Technological_Development) , which states that we ought to retard the development of dangerous technologies, particularly ones that raise the level of existential risk, and accelerate the development of beneficial technologies, particularly those that protect against the existential risks posed by nature or by other technologies. Anthropic reasoning Bostrom has published numerous articles on _anthropic reasoning_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle) , as well as the book Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy. In the book, he criticizes previous formulations of the anthropic principle, including those of _Brandon Carter_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandon_Carter) , _John Leslie_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_A._Leslie) , _John Barrow_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Barrow) , and _Frank Tipler_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Tipler) ._[13]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-13) Bostrom showed how there are problems in various different areas of inquiry (including in cosmology, philosophy, evolution theory, game theory, and quantum physics) that involve a common set of issues related to the handling of indexical information. He argued that a theory of anthropics is needed to deal with these. He introduced the _Self-Sampling Assumption_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Sampling_Assumption) (SSA) and the _Self-Indication Assumption_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-Indication_Assumption) (SIA) and showed how they lead to different conclusions in a number of cases. He pointed out that each is affected by paradoxes or counterintuitive implications in certain thought experiments (the SSA in e.g. the Doomsday argument; the SIA in the Presumptuous Philosopher thought experiment). He suggested that a way forward may involve extending SSA into the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA), which replaces "observers" in the SSA definition by "observer-moments". This could allow for the reference class to be relativized (and he derived an expression for this in the “observation equation”). In later work, he has described the phenomenon of anthropic shadow, an observation selection effect that prevent observers from observing certain kinds of catastrophes in their recent geological and evolutionary past._[14]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_not e-14) Catastrophe types that lie in the anthropic shadow are apt to be underestimated unless statistical corrections are made. Ethics of human enhancement Bostrom is favorable towards "human enhancement", or "self-improvement and human perfectibility through the ethical application of science",_[15]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note- Guardian2006-15) _[16]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-16) as well as a critic of bio-conservative views._[17]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-17) He has proposed the _reversal test_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversal_test) for reducing status quo bias in bioethical discussions of human enhancement._[18]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-18) In 1998, Bostrom co-founded (with _David Pearce_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Pearce_(philosopher)) ) the World Transhumanist Association_[15]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_n ote-Guardian2006-15) (which has since changed its name to _Humanity+_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanity+) ). In 2004, he co-founded (with _James Hughes_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hughes_(sociologist)) ) the _Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institute_for_Ethics_and_Emerging_Technologies) . In 2005 he was appointed Director of the newly created _Future of Humanity Institute_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) in Oxford. Bostrom is the 2009 recipient of the _Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_R._Gannon_Award_for_the_Continued_Pursuit_of_Human_Advancement) _[19]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-19) _[20]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-20) and was named in _Foreign Policy's_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Policy) 2009 list of top global thinkers "for accepting no limits on human potential." _[21]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-21) Simulation argument Bostrom argues that at least one of the following statements is very likely to be true: 1. The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; 2. The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; 3. The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one. To estimate the probability of at least one of those propositions holding, he offers the following equation:_[22]_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nick_Bostrom&printable=yes#cite_note-22) where: is the fraction of all human civilizations that will reach a technological capability to program reality simulators. is the average number of ancestor-simulations run by the civilizations mentioned by . is the average number of individuals who have lived in a civilization before it was able to perform reality simulation. is the fraction of all humans who live in virtual realities. N can be calculated by multiplying the number of civilizations interested in performing such simulations () by the number of simulations run by such civilizations (): Thus the formula becomes: Because post-human computing power will be such a large value, at least one of the following three approximations will be true: ≈ 0 ≈ 0 ≈ 1 Books * _Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies) , _ISBN 978-0-19-967811-2_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780199678112) * Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy, _ISBN 0-415-93858-9_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0415938589) * Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom, _ISBN 978-0-19-857050-9_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780198570509) * Human Enhancement, edited by _Julian Savulescu_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Savulescu) and Nick Bostrom, _ISBN 0-19-929972-2_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0199299722) Television Bostrom appeared a 2003 episode of _Horizon_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_(BBC_TV_series)) . More recently, he's appeared in two episodes of _Closer to Truth_ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closer_to_Truth) hosted by Robert Lawrence Kuhn, once to discuss the universe and once to discuss his agnosticism. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
[RC] [ RC ] Nick Bostrom & Transhumanism
BILROJ via Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community Mon, 29 Sep 2014 09:05:08 -0700
