Note:
Some of these numbers seem suspect to me; the drop-offs are too precipitous
for the period of time in question. However, in all probability there are
drop-offs and the article may well be valid enough even if its projections
for this year might not come about for another 4 years or so.
Billy
Southern Evangelicals: Dwindling
—and Taking the GOP Edge With Them
Robert P. Jones ("The Atlantic," October 17, 2014)
Midterm elections are all about turning out base constituencies. Over the
last few decades, there have been few more reliable voters for Republicans
than white evangelical Protestants. This year, however, GOP candidates may
be getting less help from this group—not because white evangelical
Protestants are becoming less supportive or less motivated, but simply because
they
are declining as a proportion of the population, even in Southern states.
White evangelical Protestants have remained a steadfast Republican
constituency in both presidential and midterm congressional elections ever
since
the Reagan presidency, which marked what political scientists Merle and Earl
Black dubbed “the great white switch.” In 2008 and 2012, roughly
three-quarters of white born-again Christians supported GOP nominees John
McCain (73
percent) and Mitt Romney (78 percent). In the 2010 midterm election,
similar numbers of white born-again Christians (77 percent) supported the GOP
House candidate in their districts.
During the heady days of evangelical prominence in the 1980s and 1990s,
white evangelical Protestant leaders frequently noted the decline of their
more liberal mainline Protestant cousins, but now white evangelicals are
seeing their own populations shrink. In recent years, for example, the
Southern
Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical denomination in the country,
has reported steady declines in membership and new baptisms. Since 2007, the
number of white evangelical Protestants nationwide has slipped from 22
percent in 2007 to 18 percent today.
A look at generational differences demonstrates that this is only the
beginnings of a major shift away from a robust white evangelical presence and
influence in the country. While white evangelical Protestants constitute
roughly three in 10 (29 percent) seniors (age 65 and older), they account for
only one in 10 (10 percent) members of the Millennial generation (age
18-29). In the last few national elections, however, because of high levels of
voter turnout, white evangelical Protestants have managed to maintain an
outsized presence at the ballot box according to national exit polls,
representing roughly one-quarter of voters.
But the fact that there are currently five Southern states—Arkansas,
Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina— where polling shows that the
Senate race margins are less than five percentage points indicates that 2014
may be the year that the underlying demographic trends finally exert enough
force to make themselves felt. These changes are evident in analysis based
on the American Values Atlas, a massive interactive online map of
demographic and religious diversity in America based on 45,000 interviews
conducted
throughout 2013, created by the Public Religion Research Institute in
partnership with Social Science Research Solutions.
Compared to 2007, just after the 2006 midterm elections, the five southern
states where there are tight Senate races have one thing in common: the
proportion of white evangelical Protestants has dropped significantly.
In Arkansas, where Republican and freshman Representative Tom Cotton is
locked in a tight race with two-term Democratic Senator Mark Pryor, the white
evangelical Protestant proportion of the population has dropped from 43
percent to 36 percent.
In Georgia, where Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn is battling Republican
candidate David Perdue for retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss’s seat, white
evangelical Protestants made up 30 percent of the population in 2007 but
that number is currently down to 24 percent.
The proportion of white evangelicals in Kentucky has plunged 11 points,
from 43 percent to 32 percent; here Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
faces the Democratic Alison Grimes, the secretary of state.
In Louisiana, where Republican Representative Bill Cassidy is up against
three-term Democrat Mary Landrieu, white evangelicals have slipped from being
24 percent of the population to 19 percent.
Likewise, North Carolina has seen a dip in the white evangelical proportion
of its population, from 37 percent to 30 percent; here incumbent Democrat
Kay Hagan battles Republican Speaker of the North Carolina House Thom
Tillis.
Arkansas and Georgia have also witnessed significant declines in the
numbers of white mainline Protestants, who also lean toward supporting
Republican
candidates in the South.
Two forces account for the declining proportions of white evangelical and
mainline Protestants: the growth of non-black ethnic minorities and, perhaps
surprisingly, the growth of the religiously unaffiliated across the South.
Notably, each of these growing constituencies leans decidedly toward
Democratic candidates. For example, in 2007, the religiously unaffiliated
constituted 12 percent each of the populations of Kentucky and North Carolina.
By
2013, the percentage of unaffiliated Kentuckians had jumped nine points to
21 percent, and the percentage of unaffiliated North Carolinians had
jumped to 17 percent. While increases in the proportions of the religiously
unaffiliated in Arkansas, Georgia, and Louisiana fall short of statistical
significance, the patterns all point in the same direction.
So what does this mean for the 2014 elections? Certainly, events on the
ground are still paramount; the campaign machines and peculiarities of
candidates matter. And in low-turnout elections such as the midterms, the real
weight of these demographic and religious shifts will not yet be fully felt at
the ballot box. White evangelical Protestants have a strong turnout
record, while non-black ethnic minorities and particularly the religiously
unaffiliated are much less likely to vote. PRRI’s pre-election American Values
Survey found that while two-thirds (65 percent) of white evangelical
Protestants report that they were absolutely certain to vote in the November
elections, less than half (45 percent) of the religiously unaffiliated report
this kind of certainty. But the underlying trends indicate that at least one
reason why there are a number of close elections across the South is the
declining dominance of white evangelical Protestants, the most stalwart of GOP
supporters.
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