[RC] Cook Political Report -view of GOP nomination prospects

[BILROJ via Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community]

Cook Political Report
 
 
 
National Politics | By Amy Walter, March 16, 2016 
 
The Trump Train  Rolls Forward
 
 


 
Despite a concerted effort by many in the GOP to derail him, Donald Trump  
remains on track to capture the nomination. That’s not to say that the track 
is  entirely clear. Kasich’s success in Ohio was a blow to Trump’s “
inevitability”  storyline. And, despite his wins, he’s failed to carry any 
state 
with a majority  of the vote. That’s important to remember given that he’ll 
need to win at least  53 percent of the remaining delegates to hit magic 
number of 1,237 delegates.  That said Trump remains helped by a divided field 
and the upcoming primary  calendar that features that features lots of 
winner-take-all and  winner-take-most contests, northeastern states where he 
should do well and few  caucus contests where he’s struggled.

Here are the key issues ahead for  this next phase of the GOP nomination 
contest:

1. Let’s dispel  with the fiction that's there's a unifying GOP candidate. 
There are  plenty of Republicans who don’t like Donald Trump. He is the most 
polarizing of  the candidates in either party. And yet, the reality is that 
no single non-Trump  candidate has been able to mobilize the majority of 
Republicans to their side.  With both John Kasich and Ted Cruz staying in the 
race, it’s unlikely that we’ll  see a consensus anti-Trump emerge. The more 
the field is divided, the better for  Trump. 

There’s perhaps no better indicator of the difficulty ahead for  the 
non-Trump candidates than Illinois. This is the kind of state where a more  
traditional, “establishment” candidate does well. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried  
the state with 47 percent. This year, Trump carried Illinois with a smaller 
39  percent plurality. But, Cruz took just 30 percent (five points below Rick 
 Santorum’s showing in 2012), while the traditional, establishment GOPers 
Marco  Rubio and John Kasich took a combined 29 percent. As long as that 
pattern  continues in the upcoming states, it’s hard to see how Trump gets 
seriously  derailed. 

2. The upcoming calendar is favorable to Trump. The  south and Midwest have 
all pretty much weighed in at this point. Cruz didn’t do  as well in the 
south as he should have. Kasich didn’t do as well in the Midwest  as he should 
have. Now, it’s now time for the west and northeast to have their  say. On 
the one hand, the blue states up in mid-April (New York, Connecticut,  
Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania) should favor the more  
establishment candidacy of Kasich. In 2012, Romney easily defeated Rick 
Santorum  
in these states. However, Trump has a regional appeal that makes him 
uniquely  positioned for these states. And, despite early predictions that 
closed  
primaries, as most of these northeastern states will be, would hinder Trump, 
 he’s managed to win in both open and closed contests. It’s easy to see 
how Trump  carries not just New York, but also Rhode Island, Delaware, and 
even  Connecticut. 

Moreover, Trump continues to win among ‘somewhat  conservative’ 
Republicans, the group of voters that _have proven to be the most  predictive_ 
(http://cookpolitical.com/story/9366)  of winning the nomination. Of the 20 
states 
that have voted – and  have exit poll data - Trump has carried the ‘
somewhat conservative vote in 16 of  them, including wins last night in 
Illinois, 
Florida, North Carolina and  Missouri. 

Trump’s immigration stance will help him in Arizona on March  22, a winner 
take all state with 58 delegates. And, we should expect him to do  well in 
blue-collar areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Washington state.  

Moreover, the map isn’t all that favorable to Cruz. Not only are the  
northeastern states a cultural mismatch for Cruz, there are also few remaining  
caucuses left on the calendar. Caucuses, with their more socially 
conservative  constituency and emphasis on grassroots organizing, have been 
great for 
the Cruz  campaign. Of the 21 states that vote between now and June 7, 
however, only four  hold caucuses. Cruz is the only candidate with the money 
and 
the expertise to  compete in the arcane congressional level delegate fights 
in delegate rich  states like California and New York. That may be enough to 
fracture the vote  enough to prevent Trump from getting the total number of 
delegates he needs,  though it might not prevent a Trump “win” in the 
state. 

3. A  contested convention? Is there a possibility that the GOP nomination 
is  decided in a floor fight in Cleveland? Absolutely. Is it believable that 
there’s  a candidate out there – whether one who’s been in the race or who 
hasn’t – who  can unify the party? I am highly skeptical. A floor fight 
only serves to further  divide and depress this already fractured party. 
Moreover, the idea that an  outsider, one who has not been in the trenches 
during 
this long, bloody fight  for the GOP nomination, would be allowed to swoop 
in and capture the nomination  just strikes me as impossible. 
There’s also a big difference between Donald Trump coming into Cleveland 20 
 delegates short and getting to the convention 200 delegates short. The 
former  looks like a technicality fight. The latter looks like a real fight 
over the  wishes of the GOP. Moreover, when all is said and done, the top two 
vote getters  – by a large margin – will be Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. To 
this point, they  have captured more than 65 percent of the overall vote. For 
the GOP to pick  someone other than either of these two candidates would be 
going against the  explicit desire of a large majority of the party. 

4. Be careful  what you wish for. Talking with Democratic and GOP elites 
has been a  mind-bending experience this year. Those on the GOP side are 
deeply disdainful  and fearful of a Trump nomination. Not only does he hurt 
their 
prospects to win  the White House, they say, but he assures a down-ballot 
sweep by the Democrats.  Moreover, they fear that Trump will redefine the 
party and conservatism.  Republican establishment types personally dislike 
Cruz, but they are coming to  see him as the least-bad option. 

Meanwhile, talk to Democratic elites –  especially those in the business of 
campaign organizing – and they fear Trump  more than Cruz. Trump’s 
unpredictability and his appeal to downscale white  voters, has them very 
worried. 
Cruz, meanwhile, is a more predictable and  candidate for whom the Democrats 
have proven they have the playbook to defeat.  The data, however, doesn’t 
bear out this thinking. The most recent NBC  News/Wall Street Journal polling 
found that Cruz outperforms Trump among  key demographic groups like women 
(Hillary wins women by 14 points against Cruz,  but by 27 points against 
Trump); white voters (Cruz carries them by 15 points,  Trump wins them by just 
4 points); and older voters (Cruz loses those 65 and  older by 4 points to 
Clinton while Trump loses them by 13 points). However,  there is still a 
great deal of anxiety among the Democratic DC class that  Clinton will both 
fail 
to motivate the Obama coalition and lose by an even wider  margin among 
white voters against Trump. 

Bottom Line 

In a  race that has had more twist and turns than anyone could have 
imagined, we may  be in for many more of them in the coming weeks. For now, 
however, the Trump  train is still rolling along and showing no signs of losing 
 
steam

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