It is incredibly shallow of me, but as a radical centrist I'm really enjoying this spectacle. I'm particularly embarrassed by how much fun I have watching hard-core evangelical Republicans consider voting for Hillary...
E Sent from my iPhone > On Mar 17, 2016, at 07:49, BILROJ via Centroids: The Center of the Radical > Centrist Community <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Cook Political Report > > > National Politics | By Amy Walter, March 16, 2016 > > The Trump Train Rolls Forward > > Despite a concerted effort by many in the GOP to derail him, Donald Trump > remains on track to capture the nomination. That’s not to say that the track > is entirely clear. Kasich’s success in Ohio was a blow to Trump’s > “inevitability” storyline. And, despite his wins, he’s failed to carry any > state with a majority of the vote. That’s important to remember given that > he’ll need to win at least 53 percent of the remaining delegates to hit magic > number of 1,237 delegates. That said Trump remains helped by a divided field > and the upcoming primary calendar that features that features lots of > winner-take-all and winner-take-most contests, northeastern states where he > should do well and few caucus contests where he’s struggled. > > Here are the key issues ahead for this next phase of the GOP nomination > contest: > > 1. Let’s dispel with the fiction that's there's a unifying GOP candidate. > There are plenty of Republicans who don’t like Donald Trump. He is the most > polarizing of the candidates in either party. And yet, the reality is that no > single non-Trump candidate has been able to mobilize the majority of > Republicans to their side. With both John Kasich and Ted Cruz staying in the > race, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a consensus anti-Trump emerge. The more > the field is divided, the better for Trump. > > There’s perhaps no better indicator of the difficulty ahead for the non-Trump > candidates than Illinois. This is the kind of state where a more traditional, > “establishment” candidate does well. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state > with 47 percent. This year, Trump carried Illinois with a smaller 39 percent > plurality. But, Cruz took just 30 percent (five points below Rick Santorum’s > showing in 2012), while the traditional, establishment GOPers Marco Rubio and > John Kasich took a combined 29 percent. As long as that pattern continues in > the upcoming states, it’s hard to see how Trump gets seriously derailed. > > 2. The upcoming calendar is favorable to Trump. The south and Midwest have > all pretty much weighed in at this point. Cruz didn’t do as well in the south > as he should have. Kasich didn’t do as well in the Midwest as he should have. > Now, it’s now time for the west and northeast to have their say. On the one > hand, the blue states up in mid-April (New York, Connecticut, Delaware, > Maryland, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania) should favor the more establishment > candidacy of Kasich. In 2012, Romney easily defeated Rick Santorum in these > states. However, Trump has a regional appeal that makes him uniquely > positioned for these states. And, despite early predictions that closed > primaries, as most of these northeastern states will be, would hinder Trump, > he’s managed to win in both open and closed contests. It’s easy to see how > Trump carries not just New York, but also Rhode Island, Delaware, and even > Connecticut. > > Moreover, Trump continues to win among ‘somewhat conservative’ Republicans, > the group of voters that have proven to be the most predictive of winning the > nomination. Of the 20 states that have voted – and have exit poll data - > Trump has carried the ‘somewhat conservative vote in 16 of them, including > wins last night in Illinois, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri. > > Trump’s immigration stance will help him in Arizona on March 22, a winner > take all state with 58 delegates. And, we should expect him to do well in > blue-collar areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Washington state. > > Moreover, the map isn’t all that favorable to Cruz. Not only are the > northeastern states a cultural mismatch for Cruz, there are also few > remaining caucuses left on the calendar. Caucuses, with their more socially > conservative constituency and emphasis on grassroots organizing, have been > great for the Cruz campaign. Of the 21 states that vote between now and June > 7, however, only four hold caucuses. Cruz is the only candidate with the > money and the expertise to compete in the arcane congressional level delegate > fights in delegate rich states like California and New York. That may be > enough to fracture the vote enough to prevent Trump from getting the total > number of delegates he needs, though it might not prevent a Trump “win” in > the state. > > 3. A contested convention? Is there a possibility that the GOP nomination is > decided in a floor fight in Cleveland? Absolutely. Is it believable that > there’s a candidate out there – whether one who’s been in the race or who > hasn’t – who can unify the party? I am highly skeptical. A floor fight only > serves to further divide and depress this already fractured party. Moreover, > the idea that an outsider, one who has not been in the trenches during this > long, bloody fight for the GOP nomination, would be allowed to swoop in and > capture the nomination just strikes me as impossible. > > There’s also a big difference between Donald Trump coming into Cleveland 20 > delegates short and getting to the convention 200 delegates short. The former > looks like a technicality fight. The latter looks like a real fight over the > wishes of the GOP. Moreover, when all is said and done, the top two vote > getters – by a large margin – will be Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. To this > point, they have captured more than 65 percent of the overall vote. For the > GOP to pick someone other than either of these two candidates would be going > against the explicit desire of a large majority of the party. > > 4. Be careful what you wish for. Talking with Democratic and GOP elites has > been a mind-bending experience this year. Those on the GOP side are deeply > disdainful and fearful of a Trump nomination. Not only does he hurt their > prospects to win the White House, they say, but he assures a down-ballot > sweep by the Democrats. Moreover, they fear that Trump will redefine the > party and conservatism. Republican establishment types personally dislike > Cruz, but they are coming to see him as the least-bad option. > > Meanwhile, talk to Democratic elites – especially those in the business of > campaign organizing – and they fear Trump more than Cruz. Trump’s > unpredictability and his appeal to downscale white voters, has them very > worried. Cruz, meanwhile, is a more predictable and candidate for whom the > Democrats have proven they have the playbook to defeat. The data, however, > doesn’t bear out this thinking. The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal > polling found that Cruz outperforms Trump among key demographic groups like > women (Hillary wins women by 14 points against Cruz, but by 27 points against > Trump); white voters (Cruz carries them by 15 points, Trump wins them by just > 4 points); and older voters (Cruz loses those 65 and older by 4 points to > Clinton while Trump loses them by 13 points). However, there is still a great > deal of anxiety among the Democratic DC class that Clinton will both fail to > motivate the Obama coalition and lose by an even wider margin among white > voters against Trump. > > Bottom Line > > In a race that has had more twist and turns than anyone could have imagined, > we may be in for many more of them in the coming weeks. For now, however, the > Trump train is still rolling along and showing no signs of losing steam > > -- > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. 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