My first substack post! Feedback welcome…
Begin forwarded message: Saving the Villain: Why Iran Needs the IRGC <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=7000841&post_id=184543958&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=17pb5&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMDM5MDA5LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxODQ1NDM5NTgsImlhdCI6MTc2ODM5Nzg4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzcwOTg5ODg1LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNzAwMDg0MSIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.upb4zZShh-Kks5OtNS32Qv0CNeBEs_FLONmqPcfR1xE> THE EARNEST REDEEMER <https://substack.com/@theearnestredeemer> JAN 14 <https://substack.com/@theearnestredeemer> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=7000841&post_id=184543958&utm_source=substack&isFreemail=false&submitLike=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMDM5MDA5LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxODQ1NDM5NTgsInJlYWN0aW9uIjoi4p2kIiwiaWF0IjoxNzY4Mzk3ODg1LCJleHAiOjE3NzA5ODk4ODUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi03MDAwODQxIiwic3ViIjoicmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.41CzUBg52fQiecRq3ROR8yFv0RC1GlmAYUc8k3Niblo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-reaction&r=17pb5> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=7000841&post_id=184543958&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&isFreemail=false&comments=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMDM5MDA5LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxODQ1NDM5NTgsImlhdCI6MTc2ODM5Nzg4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzcwOTg5ODg1LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNzAwMDg0MSIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.upb4zZShh-Kks5OtNS32Qv0CNeBEs_FLONmqPcfR1xE&r=17pb5&utm_campaign=email-half-magic-comments&action=post-comment&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> <https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=7000841&post_id=184543958&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&action=share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=17pb5&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMDM5MDA5LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxODQ1NDM5NTgsImlhdCI6MTc2ODM5Nzg4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzcwOTg5ODg1LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItNzAwMDg0MSIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.upb4zZShh-Kks5OtNS32Qv0CNeBEs_FLONmqPcfR1xE> <https://substack.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.2Zc--6MgOth_l9ZtxVjsiDsMkBKQ4g3J53cw6PwqGpM?&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email> READ IN APP <https://open.substack.com/pub/theearnestredeemer/p/saving-the-villain-why-iran-needs?utm_source=email&redirect=app-store&utm_campaign=email-read-in-app> Jan 14, 2026. I'm calling it: Iran's regime is done. This sounds controversial (or naive) now, but I doubt it will in a week. Shutting down the Internet and shooting civilians is slow motion economic and political suicide. All it is doing is turning protesters into revolutionaries, because they have nothing left to lose -- so the regime has nothing credible left to bargain with. Game over. That's not the win. That's the problem. Regime change is impossible, until it becomes easy. Then it becomes dangerous. How do you keep from collapsing into chaos, civil war, or continuous terrorism? The answer to all three: saving the Iran Revolutionary Guard Council. I know this seems counterintuitive, as they are the regime's main engine of physical and ideological oppression. I hate pretty much everything they stand for. But they also control enormous economic and military resources. And if they also believe they have nothing to lose, they will fight to the death, one way or the other. So instead: give them something to live for. Offer them a seat at the table in a transitional government. I know it sounds insane -- and it would have to be done very, very carefully -- but what's the alternative? De-Baathification? Mass executions? Mob rule? The model here is not East Germany (where West Germany ensured order) but South Africa. The ugly truth is that you need people who were complicit in the old regime to help you build the new one. The beautiful truth is that there is a moral way to do that: make amnesty conditional on confession. Specifically: 1. Top IRGC leadership needs to be arrested and held for trial, and perhaps crimes against humanity. 2. The remaining IRGC is allowed -- perhaps even required! -- to participate in a transitional government. 3. Artesh (as the only credible authority) has to guarantee the safety of IRGC members and their families 3. The long-term plan is for IRGC to "drop the G" (demilitarize) and split into separate economic and political entities. 4. IRGC officials who wish to hold authority in the new system would have to go through a version of South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission. 5. Individual IRGC members who committed voluntary atrocities would have to be dealt with justly (I'm not sure how). This is ugly, messy, and unfair. But it is the only way I can think of to avoid something far, far, worse. Do you have a better idea? 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