Thanks for your replies. I plan to simulate the bag + weight as mentioned. 
We just got a couple of inches of snow here today in Minneapolis. I hope to 
test the idea in a few days after a brief. Then, like other hard cores in 
the area, will go through the ritual of installing studded tires on our 
bikes for the next several months. A Berthoud bag wouldn't be subjected to 
such slop riding, of course. I'm just feeding my perfectionism and this is 
a problem I can't seem to solve.

For the record, I love the ride of my Hilsen with medium saddlebag or rear 
pannier loads and anticipate it to handle the front weight just fine. 
Mike's wise comment comments just gave me pause.

I owned a Surly LHT that I thought rode like a brick with, or without 
weight. Ugh. My former Salsa Casseroll was better but not worth keeping. I 
have a sweet riding Merlin ti/carbon fork road bike that's awaiting a new 
owner. I'll happily ride my AHH over it most days of the week though, it's 
that good of a ride. 

Happy Thankgiving!

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