The Sydney Morning Herald [print edition]
April 24, 1999

Social cost of the GST just too high

by Adele Horin

THE Government�s boast that no Australian shall be a loser under the GST is
about as sound as Bob Hawke�s infamous promise on child poverty. With every
passing day, it is becoming clearer that the big losers, as things stand, will
be all of us.

Experts may quibble over whether pensioners will be 37 cents a week better off
or $2 a week worse off. But there is no argument that Australia will be a much
more unequal and divided country post-GST, unless the proposal is significantly
changed.

The GST measures will widen the gap between the top earners and everyone else.
The rich will get richer, thanks to generous tax cuts. And even if most other
Australians don�t get poorer, the result is a wider-than-ever chasm between the
well-off and the rest.

According to the Australian Council of Social Service, the top 20 per cent of
households with annual incomes of $60,000 and above will get generous benefits �
$70, $80, $90 a week in tax cuts, much more than they need to offset the costs
of a GST, To this relatively privileged group flows about 50 per cent of the tax
cuts, or $7 billion a year, with the greatest benefits going to households on
incomes of $70,000 to $100,000.

To the bottom 20 per cent flows a measly $2 billion to $3 billion in
compensation, about half of which will be ripped off in higher food bills alone.
Many low-income people will pay in higher prices more than they get in
compensation.
Put another way, individuals on $75,000 will get tax cuts of $86 a week But a
million pensioners will be only a few cents better off - or possibly worse off,
depending on which model the economists use.

And it�s not that the well-off need such generous compensation, given their
spending patterns. These are the folk who save 20 per cent of their income now,
and who are more likely to buy new cars, and other items that will be cheaper
under a GST.

As well, 1 to 2 million Australians - self-employed on very low incomes, low
wage earners without children, retir-ees, new migrants, unemployed people aged
17-20, and retrenched workers 55 and over - are also likely to be worse off.
They earn too little to gain from tax cuts. But they are outside the social
security system.

There is, I venture, a consensus among Australians that the widening gap between
rich and poor is a great concern. Even more than the Prime Minister's cherished
�mateship�, Australians� belief in egalitarianism is part of our national
identity.

But too few connect what's happening in Canberra with the growing inequalities
besetting the nation. There is a lack of understanding that the GST proposal
represents a huge redistribution of income from poor to rich.

One reason is that the main beneficiaries of the proposed new 30 per cent and 40
per cent tax rates are high earners on incomes around $75,000, well above the
average full-time wage of $38,000. Just through the reductions in the 34 per
cent and 43 per cent rates to the new levels, a person on $100,000 gains $37 a
week, while someone on $30,000 gains only $8.

Even if most ordinary Australians are not worse off overall under a GST, they
will gain much less than higher earners.

Some argue that growing inequality matters little as long as most people are not
poorer for the changes. But as affluent Australians lose touch with the rest of
the community, and retreat into lifestyles quite different from the average,
inequality becomes a self-reinforcing phenomenon. When the affluent can avoid
contact with the downwardly mobile through avoiding public transport, public
schools, public hospitals, and so on, they also withdraw their willingness to
fund these services.

At a time when global economic forces have exacerbated inequalities, governments
should not be aiding and abetting the trend. In the area of tax, governments are
not powerless. But the Australian Government is redistributing income in the
wrong way.

At the very least the compensation package needs to be revised, and not just for
pen-sioners. Any Harradine-inspired generosity from the Government must be
extended to the unemployed and the other less politically powerful groups in
particular danger of being screwed under a GST.


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