Rod Hagen wrote:
> At 09:59 AM 28/10/99, Laurie Forde wrote:
> >Howard can lose,Trudy.----He loses if, despite his best efforts to weaken
> >the Republic case,and divide Republican supporters, the YES vote still gets
> >up on Nov.6.
> >
> >He loses because there is one less major division in Australian
> >society ---Republicans v Monarchists---and division is the lifesblood of
> >unwanted politicians like Howard.
> >
> >Laurie.
> >
> >Laurie and Desley Forde [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> I think Howard has played this issue very carefully and effectively. Unless
> there is a real turn around in the last week then the "No" case will win
> the referendum. Without the nonsense about the "people's republic" etc the
> monarchists (and Howard - who I suspect really sees this issue in purely
> cynical, political terms rather than being the simplistic Menzies accolyte
> that he pretends to be) would have been down the gurglar at the end of week
> one.
>
> If the "NO" case wins, then Howard goes along saying "see, I told you so. I
> offered the referendum as I promised I would and you didn't really want it
> did you."
>
> Anyone who really believes that this whole issue will be easy to revisit in
> the near future is kidding themselves. It certainly won't occur while the
> Libs are in power and even after a change of government it would take a
> brave Labor leader indeed to risk the schism between the "direct election"
> and "parliamentary election" factions within his or her own party. Nobody
> with any sense would even try to run such a debate. All it would do would
> exacerbate divisions that would be hard to heal. The labor party have had
> enough trouble in the past with internal divisions over matters such as
> state aid, pragmatism versus idealism etc etc. Only a fool would stir the
> hornets nest. I'm sure Howard is well aware of this and is doing his
> damndest to engineer a situation where the Labor party would split over the
> issue when it is next in government.
>
> This is it folks. You either want a republic or you don't. Those who
> suggest that you vote "no" to get what you want further down the track are
> being either naive or mendacious in my opinion. I suspect that the latter
> is true of the Reiths and others of their ilk. Some, like Phil Cleary, seem
> to simply be on a jaundiced ego trip. Others probably simply haven't really
> thought it through.
>
> If you want a republic, vote yes. If you don't, vote no. As I said in an
> earlier post, I don't think it is really an issue of critical importance
> any more. But don't delude yourself that voting "no" is a clever way of
> getting some kind of "people's republic". You won't get it.
>
> Cheers
>
> Rod
>
Rod,
I can't let this go by without a few comments. I have said that I want a direct
election model but I have
always been willing to listen to reason and be convinced that another model is better.
Unfortunately, I
feel that anyone who wasn't thrilled with the ARM model wasn't listened to.
The reason the 'yes' faction will lose, I believe, is because they haven't come up
with anything that will
convince the direct electionists to see it their way. They also have shown no interest
in listening to the
Australian people.
The whole thing has degenerated into sloganeering and is now descending into the farce
of making the dead
vote. The 'yes' faction is using a very strange method of persuading direct
electionists in my view. They
ridicule, threaten and attack and I, for one, don't find that very convincing.
The problem with the whole exercise is that it was directed by Howard all the way. He
stacked the ConCon. He
dropped hints all the way through as to what was "acceptable" to him. He changed the
rules when it appeared
to his advantage. Like puppets they danced to his strings.
The model to be put to the people was the one with a clear majority, according to
Howard. So the ARM faction
beat everyone else into submission and squeaked through. No clear majority but Howard
realised how unpopular
it was and changed his own rules in order to put it up.
Any poll taken shows the overwhelming majority of Australians want a republic but they
don't want this
model. The way this has been conducted has guaranteed it will lose because Australians
have been treated
like mushrooms. Many people don't understand the details and instead of educating them
the ads on TV and the
slogans have treated them like simpletons - playing on nationalistic emotions.
Its not as simple as 'if you want a republic you will vote yes'.
I believe that the Federation of Australia took over 10 years to reach a concensus.
Different models were
put up and discussed throughout the country before one was found that most were happy
with. I think a
republic should get at least that much care and consideration. We haven't gone about
this the right way
because Howard has been the puppet master.
We should have a plebiscite first and when the real number of Australians for a
republic is known, then
different models should be put up for discussion until one is found that most people
will trust. If this
takes some time, so be it. There is no rush and it ridiculous to take such an
important step to beat a
deadline.
In the meantime, I will not vote for a republic because it is the only one on offer
thanks to a
megalomaniaciacal PM. We can do much better and I think we should set about starting
on it.
Trudy
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