This piece is fair.
http://www.boston.com/sports/touching_all_the_bases/2011/09/the_postmortem.html


Just how unbelievable was the collapse?

...  the Sox were the best team in the American League through much of the
summer, going 81-42 from the conclusion of the 2-10 start until September 1.
On that date, they were on cruise control toward October, nine games up on
the Rays in the wild card race. Two days later, Baseball Prospectus gave
them a 99.6 chance of making the postseason.

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