Morning Sales notes (12-Feb-2013)
Dow bergerak mixed sepanjang perdagangan dan ditutup melemah tipis -0.2% di
level 13,97. Harga minyak pagi ini rebound dan diperdagangkan di level USD96.9
per barrel (nymex). Bursa regional bergerak menguat pagi ini. Bursa Jepang
menguat +2.3%. Sedangkan Bursa Australia (S&PASX) menguat +0.12%.
Analis teknikal kami memperkirakan, Indeks akan bergerak mixed di daerah
resistance dengan range terbatas setelah tidak ada buyer maupuan seller yang
mengendalikan perdagangan. Resistance hari ini berada di 4,523. Support di
4,495. Dalam jangka pendek indeks berada dalam pola ending diagonal yang
merupakan reversal pattern. Rekomendasi saham secara teknikal untuk hari ini:
Ticker Action Target
SMRA Buy On Weakness 2,100
EXCL Buy 5,900
UNTR Buy 21,000
RANC Buy On Weakness 810
INDF Sell 6,300
United Tractors: Headwind from Mining Contracting business
(UNTR, Rp19,950, SELL, TP: Rp16,700)
* We think ADRO (one of PAMA’s biggest clients) announcement about its
target to decrease stripping ratio from 7.0x in FY12 to 5.7x in FY13F is
another convincing evidence that PAMA’s FY13F OB volume would decrease, which
would lead to lower PAMA’s earning and translate into lower FY13F UNTR
earnings. Therefore, we reiterate our SELL with TP: Rp16,700.
* Headwind for PAMA: ADRO to reduce actual strip ratio from 7.0x to
5.7x. After several times ago ITMG announced it would reduce its stripping
ratio from 12.5x in FY12F to 11.5x in FY13F, ADRO has just announced to cut
actual stripping ratio from 7.0x in FY12 to 5.7x in FY13F. This would bring
sizable impact to PAMA’s operational volume because the combination of ITMG and
ADRO contributes around 43% to PAMA’s total overburden and 40% to PAMA’s coal
production. Lower strip ratio would lead to lower overburden and lower PAMA’s
earning, translating into lower UNTR’s net income.
* Higher crude oil than coal price in FY13 should keep lower strip
ratio in FY13F.
* Is 96% mom increase in Jan13 Komatsu sales sign of recovery or
seasonality? Newspapers reported that UNTR indicated Jan’13 Komatsu sales of
around 410 units (+96.2% mom, -33.5% yoy). We think 96% mom increase in Jan13
Komatsu is just seasonality. Based on historical pattern mom growth in January
(Exhibit 5), 96% mom growth is just seasonality. Based on our channel check
with our sources, demand from coal mining sector will still be weak in FY13F.
Market Recap February 11th 2013; JCI: 4,503.247 (+0.27%); USD/IDR: 9,620; Total
Value: Rp2.8Tn
* JCI edged up +0.27% to close at another record high 4,503.247 while
some regional bourses were still close on Chinese New Year holidays. Today’s
index leaders were big caps: UNTR (+3.64% to 19,950), BBRI (+1.24% to 8,150),
INDF (+1.52% to 6,700 – posted new high), SMGR (+1.55% to 16,400 – posted new
high), PGAS (+0.55% to 4,600) and BBCA (+2.01% to 10,150 – posted new high).
Other notable gainers were: MPPA (+6.78% to 1,890), MLPL (+2.67% to 385), ASRI
(+2.50% to 820), AKRA (+1.88% to 4,075),BMTR (+1.09% to 2,325) and BSDE (+0.75%
to 1,350). Regular market transaction was recorded at Rp2.3tn (USD239.09mn) and
foreign booked a net buy of Rp157.34bn (USD16.36mn).
* Meanwhile, today’s index laggards were: ASII (-0.65% to 7,700), BMRI
(-1.13% to 8,750), LPKR (-0.97% to 1,020), UNVR (-0.23% to 21,950), BBTN
(-1.91% to 1,540), ADHI (-2.22% to 2,200), SMRA (-1.52% to 1,950) and ICBP
(-0.63% to 7,950).
* The yield of 10-year government bond increased by 0.095% to 5.251%
and Rupiah remains strengthened by 0.383% to 9,620.
FROM THE PRESS
Modernland gain Rp3tn in land sale to ASRI
MDLN sold 150ha of its land in Tangerang at Rp3tn or equivalent to Rp2m/sqm to
PT Tangerang Matra Real Estate which is a affliated company of ASRI’s. The
agreement has been signed and the payment will progress for 30 months from
February 2013 to 2016.MDLN will use the proceeds to acquire land east of
Jakarta which will be used to build a new industrial estate which will have
residential clusters as well. MDLN is allocating Rp1.9tn of CAPEX this year
which will be financed using the Rp500bn bond from last year, marketing sales,
and internal cash. After the transaction, MDLN will have a total landbank of
651ha. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Government may impose excise tax on handsets and telco vouchers
The government may impose excise tax on the sales of handsets and telco
vouchers in a move to increase the country’s tax revenue, on top of the already
imposed 10% tax (PPN). Tariff classes may also be considered, differentiating
imported and locally produced handsets. (Kontan)
Comment: Depending on the percentage magnitude, charging excise tax on handsets
and telco vouchers, to some extent, would give additional burdens to the
consumers. Given the necessity of usage in these product categories, however,
we think that the impact should not be substantial also considering the strong
minimum wage hikes this year.
BI : Confidence remains firm in Jan13
Domestic consumers’ remain confidence about the economy entering this year as
BI’s consumer confidence index (CCI) hit 116.2 in Jan13 which is way above
optimistic threshold at 100. Despite it slightly declined from Dec12 level at
116.4, interestingly; consumers are more optimist about the economy for the
next 6 month than Dec12 amid the effective implementation of electricity tariff
increase. This is mainly because positive perception among consumers about job
availability and business climate going forward (Bank Indonesia).
Express Transindo Utama seeks Rp250bn bank loan for expansion
Express Transindo Utama (TAXI) seeks Rp250bn loan from Bank Central Asia (BBCA)
to partially finance 2013 capex budget of Rp500bn. Using a combination of loans
and cash, TAXI would purchase around 2,000 new taxi fleets, renew about 500
existing fleets, and strengthen the electronic platform by offering unicablink
mobile apps on Android, BlackBerry, iOS, and Windows Phone. Unicablink is
developed through a cooperation with Sunlight, a Malaysian taxi operator, which
will enable users to order taxi both in Indonesia (using Express Taxi) and
Malaysia (using Sunlight Taxi). TAXI aims Rp662bn of sales this year, up 40%yoy
from Rp473bn last year. (Kontan)
