Trims inpo nya Bang Lukman. Saya tambahin juga nih dari riset tetangga Jumat kmarin. Basisnya coal China. Baca 2 poin penting paling bawah. Ngeri kali aku dibuatnya Bang.
● Our industry contact suggested that major coal producers have proposed to the NDRC to potentially restrict low-quality thermal coal imports to China. We estimate the potential impact could be 20-30% of the total non-coking coal imports, equivalent to 3-4% of the China coastal market demand. Should it become effective, it is likely to be mildly positive to domestic coal market. ● The detailed proposal may restrict import thermal coal with heat content lower than ~4,500 kCal, ash content higher than 25%, and sulphur content higher than 1%. Among all the major importers this could partly affect imports from Indonesia (43% of imports in 3M13) and North America (6% of imports in 3M13), as well as brown coal imports (20% imports in 3M13), in our view Weak demand to stay YTD 4M12 thermal power generation growth was 5.4%, versus total power generation up by 5.0% and hydropower at 17% YoY. For coastal region, power demand growth was 1% lower than national average (for March). Our recent channel check on demand suggested weaker-than-normal power and coal demand, with likely negative coal demand YoY for May’s order book for selected coal producers. Depressed yet supported thermal pricing We believe spot price is well supported as the current level is still breaching the marginal cost in China and supply has responded. YTD 3M13 Chinese coal output has been down 1% and IPP coal inventory continued to correct on both days and absolute level, suggesting market supply has been self-adjusting in reaching an “effective balance”. Yet most recent import surge may have pushed the coastal market to negative side—we estimate the coastal market was likely running at 3-4% excess supply in April-May, given the weak demand (likely running at 3-4% in coastal region in April), versus coal-transport rail capacity growth of 5%, and incremental import supply that is equivalent to 3-4% of the coastal market. The potential restriction of low-quality coal may just be enough to bring back the balance, yet unlikely a cycle-changing factor. ________________________________ From: Lukman jkt <[email protected]> To: saham yahoogroups <[email protected]> Sent: Sunday, May 19, 2013 6:09 PM Subject: Re: [saham] Dow Jones Coal Index/DJUSCL Jumat cuma naik +0,41% Re: Lebih aneh, Coal yg rebound, pada net sell asing dalam Re: Reli Aneh: Batubara versus Farma (jebakan betmen utk coal?) ini deh tak lengkapi data nya : dibandingkan q1 2013 yg rata sekitar 99.95 USD . di bulan pertama q2 : 93.44 USD masih ada dua bulan lagi . 2013/5/19 Jesse Livermore <[email protected]> > > >DJUSCL closing Jumat yg 12 jam setelah BEI tutup cuma naik +0,41%. >http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJUSCL > > >Jadi tdk ada yg ajaib dg pergerakan coal. Tdk ada rebound yg cetar membahana. > > >Kesimpulan rebound coal lokal cuma apus-apusan dari news dividen HRUM. >Beruntung yg sdh pada sempat lepas barang, ngurangi floating loss. > > > >________________________________ > From: Jesse Livermore <[email protected]> >To: >Sent: Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:44 PM >Subject: Lebih aneh, Coal yg rebound, pada net sell asing dalam Re: Reli Aneh: >Batubara versus Farma (jebakan betmen utk coal?) > > > >Data pasar reguler utk raja coal yg rebound Jumat kemarin. Menguatkan aksi >kurangi floating loss dg modus operandi news dividen HRUM. > > >HRUM +15,68% net sell asing -Rp13.561.100.000 >ITMG +5,74% net sell asing -Rp10.430.000.000 >ADRO +4,76 net sell asing -Rp15.856.900.000 > > >Dan Agan2 akan lebih geleng2 campur ngeri2 benar ngeri (bukan ngerinya >Bhatoegana yg sedap itu) kalau lihat harga rata2 pembelian HRUM (average, >total trade value/total trade volume) di Rp4.089,02 yg kalau dibulatkan = >-7,59% dari harga closingnya di Rp4.425. > > >Senin, sptnya besar kemungkinan HRUM terjun bebas setidaknya ke Rp4.000 dekati >harga average Jumat nya. Kalau auto stop loss pada nyala & kena semua, alamat >2 hari balik ke harga Kamis. > > >Terus, saham2 defensif farma yg disebut sebelumnya dibwh juga naik Jumat >kemarin & bertolak belakang dg coal, justru asing malah net buy. > > >Serius nih? > > > >________________________________ > From: Jesse Livermore <[email protected]> >To: >Sent: Sunday, May 19, 2013 5:19 PM >Subject: Reli Aneh: Batubara versus Farma (jebakan betmen utk coal?) > > > >Ada pemandangan yg aneh minggu lalu. Agan2 mungkin semangat & surprised lihat >saham2 batubara yg tenggelam bisa rebound. > > >Benar ini IHSG reli atau ada dead cat bounce? Uniknya kalau diperhatikan lebih >dekat, ternyata bukan hanya saham2 batubara yg cyclical yg naik, tapi juga >saham defensif sektor farmasi. > > >Bgm bisa cyclical rebound, tapi farmasi yg defensif juga loncat ya? Mau loncat >rame2 atau jebakan betmen nih buat ngurangin floating loss yg pada nyangkut di >coal lewat news dividen HRUM? Sementara kaki yg lain ditaroh bertahan di saham >defensif. Ga yakin? > > >Yg jelas, ati2 aja & selalu waspada. > > >Farma 17 Mei: > > >INAF +11,47% >TSPC +9,61% >KAEF +7,36% >DVLA +6% >KLBF +4,76% >MERK +2,57% >PYFA +1,08% > > >Coal 17 Mei: >HRUM +15,68% >ARII +9,18% >PTBA +8,68% >ITMG +5,74% >ADRO +4,76% >PTRO +2,77% >KKGI +2,64% >TOBA +2,29% >PKPK +2,04% >BUMI +1,49% >ATPK +0,56% > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- Lukman
