Ada peluang di balik berita buruk.Kita tunggu aje deh di harga bawah
--- On Fri, 8/8/08, Kidod25 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
From: Kidod25 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Friday, August 8, 2008, 12:28 AM
saya ga tau siapa yg buat??
Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy)
Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious
deterioration in palm
oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the
market still
underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising
fertiliser prices.
Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8%
for every
1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost,
respectively.
Double hit for Astra Agro
We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin
outlook starting
2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both
greater
palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened
CPO
price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008).
Meanwhile, we
forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist
amid sharply
rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate.
Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10
Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price
assumption
and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price
assumptions
following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to
greater-than- expected
palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile,
the rise in
production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in
past 6 months.
Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500
The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower
CPO price
and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on
a 10-year
DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside
risks
include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings
to expand its
plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
