FW: PGAS -Perusahaan 'monopoly' ini pasti di untungkan kalau harga
distribusi gasnya untuk industri di naikkan.
Tinggal tunggu waktu aje, pasti harga gasnya naik,
sebab harga jual gasnya terlalu rendah apalagi dgn
harga international.
Apalagi pemerintah sudah tidak ikut campur, jadi B to B.
The new CEO when installed about 2 months back has mentioned that gas price
should be B to B, not regulated by government, which was the case before the
previous mgmt goof up in early 2007 putting them in very weak position,
therefore 'pushed around' by the regulator
It looks like the new chap has regained some clout & also align expectation
with new lower volume guideline
Something expected to emerge by end Oct08, in form of clearer gas formula
guideline
Barring political intervention, a very good chance to see price adjustment in
late 4Q08, in my view
At US$5.5/mmbtu, Indo gas price is about 30% of equivalent to diesel, so even
another 10% rise, it's still very cheap source of energy
rgds
Assuming all else the same, if PGAS is allowed to negotiate price increases on
its distribution side, business to business basis, its sensitivity is as
follow:
Currently gas price for industries is US$5.5/mmbtu, and ceiling price
previously talked about is about US$11/mmbtu
rgds
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