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-----Original Message----- From: "Amir" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Thu, 13 Nov 2008 22:52:38 To: <[email protected]> Subject: [saham] Rupiah ke 12,500? Re: BI Tangkal Spekulasi Rupiah The rupiah will fall to its lowest since 1998 in the next three months as the drop in reserves limits central bank intervention, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. The currency will slide 5.6 percent to 12,500 per dollar as exports slump, Switzerland's second- biggest bank said in a report sent to clients today. ------------------------ Indonesia's Rupiah Falls Near Seven-Year Low; Bonds Decline By Lilian Karunungan Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's rupiah fell, approaching a seven- year low, as slides in global stocks fanned concern investors' risk appetite is dwindling, curbing demand for emerging-market assets. Government bonds declined. The rupiah is this month's biggest loser against the dollar among Asia's 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen and Bank Indonesia yesterday announced restrictions on foreign- exchange purchases to stem the decline. Planning Minister Paskah Suzetta said today Indonesia doesn't need to tap the International Monetary Fund's short-term lending facility. ``Regional sentiment is still going south,'' said Joanna Tan, an economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. ``Equities are still looking quite weak. We would see the downside in the rupiah somewhat capped because of the measures imposed.'' The rupiah reached 11,998 per dollar, the lowest since 2001, before trading at 11,800 as of 4:49 p.m. in Jakarta, from 11,575 yesterday. The currency has tumbled 7 percent this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares dropped 4.9 percent today and the Jakarta Composite Index fell 5 percent. Senior Deputy Governor Miranda Goeltom said yesterday Indonesia's central bank will require companies and individuals based in the nation to seek approval for foreign-exchange purchases of more than $100,000, a move designed to help check the rupiah's slide. Buyers will have to show that they are purchasing foreign currency to settle an underlying transaction, such as paying for imports. Central Bank Intervention Stewart Newnham, an analyst at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, said the new regulation was unlikely to stabilize the rupiah. ``These measures will amount to no more than increased administrative costs in rupiah transactions, reflected in wider bid and offer spreads, and thinner liquidity,'' he wrote in a note today. ``The increased risk of capital controls is likely to deter capital inflows and expedite capital flight.'' The central bank sold dollars today, according to Wiling Bolung, head of treasury at ANZ Panin Bank in Jakarta. Policy makers intervene in currency markets by arranging sales and purchases of foreign exchange. Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves dropped to $50.58 billion in October from $57.11 billion in late September as Bank Indonesia used the funds to help support the rupiah. The rupiah will fall to its lowest since 1998 in the next three months as the drop in reserves limits central bank intervention, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. The currency will slide 5.6 percent to 12,500 per dollar as exports slump, Switzerland's second- biggest bank said in a report sent to clients today. Bonds Fall The seven-year government bond fell for a second day on concern a weaker rupiah will prompt overseas investors to cut their holdings of the securities. ``The weakening of the rupiah has accelerated, this is putting downward pressure on bond prices,'' said Henry Surya, who helps oversee the equivalent of $361 million as a fund manager and fixed- income analyst at PT Danareksa Investment Management in Jakarta. The yield on the 9.5 percent note due June 2015 rose 16 basis points to 15.03 percent, according to closing prices at the Inter Dealer Market Association. The price fell 0.5244, or 5,244 rupiah per 1 million rupiah face amount, to 77.3672. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. To contact the reporter on this story: Lilian Karunungan in Singapore at [EMAIL PROTECTED] Last Updated: November 13, 2008 04:52 EST --- In [email protected], "Amir" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > hari ini 13/11/08 agak aneh..kenapa setelah ada kebijakan ini, > rupiah melorot...nembus 12,000? > > Katanya akan terus melemah sampai desember, karena banyak corporate > butuh dollar, > bayar tagihan akhir tahun? > > > --- In [email protected], Newsmaster <newsmaster@> wrote: > > > > BI Tangkal Spekulasi Rupiah > > > > JAKARTA - Sektor finansial tanah air masih diselimuti kabut tebal. > Bursa > > saham maupun nilai tukar rupiah terus didera pelemahan. Kemarin > nilai > > tukar rupiah di pasar valas lunglai, hingga akhirnya drop 400 poin > > menuju Rp 11.500 per dolar AS. > > > > Sedangkan di pasar modal, aksi jual saham-saham unggulan membawa > indeks > > harga saham gabungan (IHSG) tergelincir tipis 9,9 poin (0,74 persen) > > membentuk level 1.326,62. Terus melemahnya rupiah menyebabkan Bank > > Indonesia (BI) sekali lagi mengambil langkah antisipatif. > > > > Mulai hari ini bank sentral mencegah transaksi valuta asing untuk > > kegiatan spekulatif. Seluruh pihak, selain bank, harus memiliki > > underlying transaksi untuk perdagangan valas di atas USD 100 ribu > per > > bulan. Dan, nasabah individu diwajibkan mencantumkan nomor pokok > wajib > > pajak (NPWP) untuk transaksi dalam jumlah itu. > > > > Ketentuan tersebut tertuang dalam Peraturan Bank Indonesia No. > > 10/28/PBI/2008 tentang Pembelian Valuta Asing terhadap Rupiah kepada > > Bank. Deputi Gubernur Senior BI Miranda Swaray Goeltom mengatakan, > > peraturan tersebut tetap berlandasan sistem devisa bebas yang dianut > > Indonesia. ''Perlu ditegaskan, ketentuan ini bukan merupakan > kebijakan > > kontrol devisa atau kontrol kapital yang membatasi arus modal lintas > > negara,'' kata Miranda di gedung BI, Jakarta, kemarin (12/11). > > > > Ketentuan terbaru itu, lanjut dia, hanya sebatas mengatur tata cara > > perolehan devisa melalui bank dengan memenuhi persyaratan tertentu. > > Dengan begitu, kebebasan pelaku ekonomi atas penggunaan devisa yang > > telah dimiliki tidak dibatasi. > > > > Pelaku ekonomi selain bank, yaitu nasabah individu, badan hukum > > Indonesia, dan pihak asing, dapat dengan bebas membeli valuta asing. > > Baik melalui transaksi spot, forward, maupun transaksi derivatif. > > Keharusan pencantuman tujuan penggunaan valas untuk perdagangan di > atas > > USD 100 ribu dimaksudkan untuk mengurangi aksi spekulasi. > > > > Hal itu juga dimaksudkan untuk menerapkan prinsip mengenal nasabah. > > ''Transaksi valuta asing yang dilakukan nasabah bank, baik individu, > > badan hukum Indonesia, maupun pihak asing, harus memiliki tujuan > > penggunaan yang jelas dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan serta > bermanfaat > > bagi sektor riil,'' kata Miranda. > > > > Guru besar Universitas Indonesia itu menegaskan, pelemahan rupiah > saat > > ini bukan karena ada aksi spekulasi. ''Ini bukan spekulasi, tapi > karena > > kurangnya pasokan USD. Ada capital outflow di Indonesia,'' ujar > > perempuan yang selalu mewarnai rambutnya itu. > > > > Hal senada diungkapkan ekonom Standard Chartered Bank Fauzi Ichsan. > > Menurut dia, saat ini ada pelarian dana asing sehingga menyebabkan > > pasokan USD berkurang. ''Masalahnya, dana dari asing yang biasanya > masuk > > di pasar saham juga berhenti sehingga likuiditas USD makin ketat,'' > > ujarnya. > > > > Dia menilai, semua transaksi atau aksi beli USD yang dilakukan > pelaku > > pasar bukan untuk spekulasi. ''Orang beli USD saat ini ada > alasannya. > > Ada yang bayar utang, untuk impor, dan sebagainya. Saat ini rupiah > belum > > pada tahap yang benar-benar sangat lemah sehingga berpotensi > dijadikan > > spekulasi,'' jelasnya. Seandainya ada investor ritel yang membeli > dolar > > AS sebanyak USD 5 ribu-USD 10 ribu untuk spekulasi, dia menilai, > > jumlahnya tidak signifikan. > > > > Fauzi mengatakan, solusi utama untuk memperkuat rupiah ialah > menambah > > pasokan USD. Salah satu cara yang bisa ditempuh adalah mengembalikan > > uang WNI yang diparkir di luar negeri. ''Caranya banyak, salah satu > di > > antaranya adalah tax amnesty,'' ujarnya. Kadin sudah mengusulkan hal > > tersebut kepada otoritas agar likuiditas di dalam negeri longgar. > > > > Secara terpisah, Kepala Ekonom BNI Tony Prasentiantono mengatakan, > ada > > indikasi pelarian dana nasabah kakap di tanah air ke bank-bank di > luar > > negeri dengan alasan keamanan atas penjaminan dana simpanannya. > > Bagaimanapun, kata dia, emerging market masih dinilai rentan oleh > > nasabah-nasabah kakap. > > > > ''Sejak awal saya merasa pemerintah terlambat melakukan blanket > > guarantee. Yang bisa membuat rupiah menguat adalah blanket > guarantee,'' > > ujarnya. Dia berharap, jika suku bunga Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) > turun > > menjadi 0,5 persen, akan ada hot money yang masuk ke tanah air. > > > > > > -- > > Office Representation in Surabaya? Visit > > http://www.datacom.co.id/profile/office.htm or > > mailto:office@ for enquiry that suits your needs. > > >
