Yen, Dollar Gain as Investors Seek Haven Amid Recession Concern


Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and the dollar gained against the euro as 
speculation the global recession is deepening boosted the haven appeal of the 
two currencies. 

The New Zealand&cls; dollar&cle; fell to a four-week low after Standard & 
Poor’s said it may cut the country’s foreign-currency credit rating. The euro 
weakened to a one-month low against the dollar as traders bet the European 
Central Bank will cut interest rates at least half percentage points. The pound 
fell as reports showed the U.K. economy slumped the most in two decades. 

“The fresh optimism or risk appetite that we saw at the start of the year is 
fast fading, and people in the market are returning to buying the yen,” said 
Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in 
London. “Anti- carry or risk-aversion trades are being put back on again. 
There’s concern over 2009 global growth. There’s concern that corporate 
performance will be poor.” 

The euro appreciated 0.2 percent to 119.02 yen at 8:38 a.m. in New York, from 
119.19 yen yesterday. It earlier touched 117.71 yen, the strongest since Dec. 
5. The yen’s seven-day gain matched the longest winning streak since the euro 
was introduced 10 years ago. The dollar advanced 0.7 percent to $1.3272, from 
$1.3362 yesterday, and touched $1.3222, the lowest level since Dec. 11. 

New Zealand Dollar 

The New Zealand dollar tumbled 3.8 percent to 55.46 U.S. cents, the biggest 
drop since October, after S&P revised its outlook for the South Pacific 
nation’s AA+ foreign-currency credit rating to “negative” from “stable.” The 
Australian dollar slid 2 percent to 66.80 U.S. cents after prices of oil and 
other commodities the country exports fell. 

U.K’s pound declined 1.5 percent to $1.4596 after reports today showed home 
sales dropped the most since 1978 and retail sales had the worst December in 14 
years. Against the euro, it declined 0.9 percent to 90.96 pence. The British 
Chambers of Commerce’s survey of almost 6,000 companies showed the economy is 
at its most fragile since it began issuing the report in 1989. 

The yen gained 3.9 percent versus the New Zealand’s dollar and rose 2 percent 
versus the Swedish krona. It touched 87.14 per dollar on Dec. 17, the strongest 
level since 1995 on as investors sold high-yielding assets and buy back the 
low-cost Japanese currency. 

Officials from major countries should intervene in the currency market to stop 
the yen from rising, Fujio Mitarai, chairman of Keidanren, Japan’s largest 
business lobby, told reporters today in Tokyo. 

It would be better for Japan’s currency to move in a range of five yen above or 
below 100 to the dollar, said Mitarai, who is also chairman of Canon Inc. 


Rate Outlook 

The ECB has reduced interest rates only half as much as the Federal Reserve in 
the past six months. A Credit Suisse Group AG gauge of probability based on 
overnight index swaps indicated the ECB will lower its 2.5 percent main rate by 
at least 50 basis points this week, with odds of 7 percent that the cut will be 
deeper. The median forecast of 59 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for 
a 0.5 percentage-point reduction. 

The Fed lowered its target lending rate in December to a range of zero to 0..25 
percent, while the Bank of England lowered its main rate last week by a 
half-percentage point to 1.5 percent. U.S. central bank Chairman Ben S. 
Bernanke will give a speech on economic policy at 1 p.m. in London today. 

“The ECB’s lagging behind the other global central banks in cutting rates and 
will certainly continue to exert downward pressure upon the euro,” Greg 
Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets in Washington at Tempus Consulting 
Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview.. “We are very bullish on the 
dollar against the euro this year. We’re looking for a year-end target of 
$1.10.” 


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=axT1t_JdYoac




      


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