http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-02/indonesia-may-keep-benchmark-rate-at-record-low-6-5-bucking-asian-trend.html

 Indonesia May Keep Benchmark Interest Rate at 6.5%, Report Faster Growth
By Greg Ahlstrand and Michael Munoz -  Aug 3, 2010 3:26 PM GMT+0700 Tue Aug
03 08:26:06 UTC 2010

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  [image: 7/30 Control Risks' Ramsay Interview on Indonesia]

Play Video <http://www.bloomberg.com/video/61866274/>

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Jacob Ramsay, an analyst with Control Risks Group,
talks with Bloomberg's Susan Li about the outlook for the Indonesian economy
and government. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index has risen 22 percent this
year, the best performer among Asia’s 10 biggest markets, as record-low
interest rates accelerated growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy and
boosted earnings. (Source: Bloomberg)

Indonesia may keep its main interest rate at a record low for a 12th
straight month, putting off joining its neighbors in raising borrowing costs
even as growth and inflation accelerate in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.


Bank Indonesia will leave its reference rate unchanged at 6.5 percent
tomorrow, according to all 22 economists in a Bloomberg News
survey<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=IDBIRATE:IND>.
The measure is at the lowest level since its introduction in July 2005.

Indonesia has refrained from following economies from India to Thailand in
raising rates as President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Susilo%20Bambang%20Yudhoyono&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>targets
annual growth of 6.6 percent. Stocks fell the most in five weeks
today after a report yesterday showed July inflation reached a 15-month
high, prompting Citigroup Inc. to predict the central bank may indicate it’s
moving closer to raising borrowing costs even as it holds rates tomorrow.

“We think Bank Indonesia will be more hawkish in its next monetary policy
statement,” Citigroup analysts Johanna
Chua<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Johanna%20Chua&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>and
Monica Ratnaputri said in a report. “The odds have increased that Bank
Indonesia will hike earlier than our forecast” of the first quarter of 2011,
they said.

The central bank said yesterday it needs closer coordination with the
government to keep food prices “reasonable” after bad weather affected
supply and spurred inflation. Indonesia’s 2011 inflation may be about 3.5
percent to 5.5 percent and the medium-term inflation rate may be about 3
percent to 5 percent, Governor-designate Darmin
Nasution<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Darmin%20Nasution&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>said
in Jakarta today.

Monitoring Inflation

“Bank Indonesia is always monitoring the inflation rate,” he said when asked
about last month’s 6.22 percent increase in consumer prices, which exceeded
the forecast of all 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Consumer prices may climb in a range of 5.8 percent to 6 percent this year,
Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Hartadi
Sarwono<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Hartadi%20Sarwono&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>said
July 20. The bank isn’t yet considering raising its benchmark rate,
Deputy Governor Budi
Mulya<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Budi%20Mulya&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>said
July 9.

A strengthening rupiah may help limit inflationary pressures. The currency
has gained more than 10 percent against the dollar in the past year, making
it one of Asia’s two best performers along with the Malaysian ringgit.

“Despite the soaring inflation rate in July, we expect the central bank to
keep the BI rate at 6.5 percent,” said
Juniman<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Juniman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>,
an economist at PT Bank Internasional Indonesia in Jakarta. “The increase in
inflation in July was temporary, due to climatic anomalies,” and price gains
this year will be consistent with the central bank’s target, he said.

Growth Quickens

Indonesia’s economy
<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=IDGDPY:IND>probably
expanded 6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest
pace since 2008, according to the
median<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=IDGDPY:IND>of 16
estimates in a Bloomberg survey ahead of a government report due Aug.
5. Faster growth has helped boost profit at companies including PT Citra
Marga Nusaphala Persada, an Indonesian toll-road operator, and PT Indocement
Tunggal Prakarsa, a cement producer.

The central bank may have less room to keep interest rates at a record low
in the coming months as electricity tariffs rise and the world’s largest
Muslim population observes the fasting month of Ramadan, according to Gundy
Cahyadi<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Gundy%20Cahyadi&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>,
an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.

Indonesia’s parliament in June approved a government proposal to increase
electricity tariffs for the first time in seven years starting July, a move
aimed at reducing subsidies.

“At a historical low of 6.5 percent, it seems reasonable for them to start
adjusting the lever of interest rates as a response to better-looking growth
prospects and consequently inflationary pressures,” said Enrico
Tanuwidjaja<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Enrico%20Tanuwidjaja&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>,
an economist at OSK-DMG Group in Singapore. “We expect them to start hiking
by the end of the third quarter.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael J.
Munoz<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Michael%20J.%20Munoz&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>in
Hong Kong at
[email protected]; Greg
Ahlstrand<http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Greg%20Ahlstrand&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja>in
Jakarta at
[email protected]

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