“People expect the real interest rate to stay positive and they’re not seeing this here,” said Fadlul Imansyah, who helps manage $210 million at Jakarta-based PT CIMB Principal Asset Management. If the difference between inflation and the benchmark interest rates “is negative that may prompt investors to leave the market for a while.”
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, may not exceed 5 percent this year even as costlier commodities threaten to push consumer-price gains above 6 percent, the central bank said Jan. 7. Indonesia<http://topics.bloomberg.com/indonesia/>ordered banks to set aside more cash as reserves to reduce inflationary pressure in 2010, while refraining from joining Malaysia, Thailand and India<http://topics.bloomberg.com/india/>in boosting borrowing costs. “Interest rate normalization should start in February 2011 to buy insurance against what are clearly rising inflation pressures and to prevent rising inflation expectations from becoming too sticky,” Morgan Stanley economists Deyi Tan, Chetan Ahya and Shweta Singh wrote in a note today. “This could be delayed by one to two months if Bank Indonesia<http://topics.bloomberg.com/bank-indonesia/>waits for core inflation to actually edge closer to 5 percent.” (Bloomberg) On Fri, Jan 14, 2011 at 9:40 AM, Faried <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Om Positip01 dan Bang IAN thanks untuk ilmunya, kalau suku bunga pinjaman > bisa murah tentunya roda ekonomi bisa rally sangat kencang ya, otomatis > harga2 saham bisa lebih menarik jadinya ya... > > Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® > ------------------------------ > *From: * [email protected] > *Sender: * [email protected] > *Date: *Fri, 14 Jan 2011 02:47:42 +0000 > *To: *<[email protected]> > *ReplyTo: * [email protected] > *Subject: *Re: [saham] BI dan suku bunga, sekali lagi? > > > > Thx bang lan sharingnya, :) > > Sent from my AXIS Worry Free BlackBerry® smartphone > ------------------------------ > *From: * Irwan Ariston Napitupulu <[email protected]> > *Sender: * [email protected] > *Date: *Fri, 14 Jan 2011 09:35:59 +0700 > *To: *<[email protected]> > *ReplyTo: * [email protected] > *Subject: *Re: [saham] BI dan suku bunga, sekali lagi? > > > > Suku bunga ngga perlu naik karena malah jadi penyebab inflasi itu sendiri > dalam kasus Indonesia. > > Naikan saja GWM nya, Giro Wajib Minimum (kalau istilah di buku pelajaran > adalah Reserve Requirement) yang saat ini masih terlalu rendah, baru 8%, > untuk negara dengan growth seperti Indonesia. China tingkat GWM nya 18,5%. > Sementara tingka suku bunga deposito 1 tahun di China hanya 2,75% dan > tingkat suku bunga pinjaman di China 5,81%. > > Peningkatan GWM sangat efektif dalam menekan jumlah uang beredar. > Bagi yg ingin belajar apa itu GWM dan bagaimana pengaruhnya ke ekonomi, > silakan baca2 di: > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement > > jabat erat, > Irwan Ariston Napitupulu > > > > On Fri, Jan 14, 2011 at 9:24 AM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> >> Ferry Wong, head of Indonesia research at Macquarie Securities in Jakarta, >> said the central bank was behind the curve on inflation. >> >> "I think some foreign investors were not too comfortable with the central >> bank's not raising interest rates despite high inflation," he said. >> (Reuters) >> >> BI’s decision to keep its policy interest rate at 6.5 per cent for the 17th >> month <http://www.bi.go.id/web/en/Moneter/BI+Rate/Data+BI+Rate/> in a row >> rests on two assumptions: that food price inflation won’t spill into core >> inflation, and that interest-rate increases would attract damaging >> short-term<http://www.bi.go.id/NR/rdonlyres/10AAF037-83D2-4972-A561-8DFF73D22DE9/21042/GBI_IndonesiaInvestmentForumJakarta.pdf>capital >> flows. Both are dubious. First, it is true that the core inflation >> rate (excluding food and energy) held steady in December at 4.3 per cent, >> while headline consumer price inflation – driven by food, which accounts for >> about a third of the >> CPI<http://dds.bps.go.id/eng/brs_file/eng-inflasi-01dec10.pdf>basket – >> continued to accelerate to 7 per cent, well outside the target zone >> of 4 to 6. But headline and core never decouple for long. Consumer surveys >> and rising 10-year bond yields suggest that inflation expectations are >> taking root. Second, rate rises need not attract inordinate amounts of hot >> money if capital >> controls<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f730a2b6-1c26-11e0-9b56-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Ab0kjIbh>are >> effective, and everyone else is >> tightening<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/60a426c4-fd31-11df-b83c-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Ab0kjIbh>too. >> (Financial Times). >> >> >> >> > >
