Subject: PGN : Revising volume estimates; retaining Buy
Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - Asia
PGN : Revising volume estimates; retaining BuyPGN {Ticker: PGAS.JK, Closing
Price: 3,750 IDR, Target Price: 5,100 IDR, Recommendation: Buy}
Valuation undemanding, though lacking near-term catalyst
PGAS had underperformed of late due to supply concerns; in the absence of a
material catalyst, this may continue in the near term given the difficult
market sentiment. However, at 12x FY11, the stock remains undemanding and
offers a decent dividend yield of c.4%; its mid- to long-term potential remains
intact given strong gas demand and potential new supply from LNG. Thus, we
retain Buy.
Flat volume in 2011
The company is moderating its guidance due to uncertainties about supply
ramp-up from Pertamina (due to technical issues in the field) and Conoco (being
diverted by regulators to Chevron in 1H11), extensions of expiring contracts
(2Q11) and negotiations on new supply contracts. However, we estimate that at
the minimum, alternative supply for Chevron is likely in 2H11, allowing Conoco
to ramp up supply to PGAS; along with ramp-ups from Medco and new flow from
Husky, this should balance expiring supplies in 2Q.
Lowering 2011 EPS forecast by 9.6%; still implies 14% EPS growth
We therefore lower our volume assumptions (flat yoy in 2011F vs. 8% growth
previously), factoring in lower Conoco ramp-up and flat Pertamina supply. Our
revised 2011F EPS still implies 14% yoy growth (in line with consensus), driven
by the FY impact of last year’s April gas selling price increase.
Revising target price to Rp5,100 (from Rp5,500)
We base our target price on DCF based on WACC of 10.9% (unchanged); the
revision reflects our earnings cuts above. Key risks: Slower volume ramp-up, a
lower-than-expected price increase, and unexpected change in government policy
with regard to the pricing of gas sales.
--- On Fri, 2/25/11, [email protected] <[email protected]> wrote:
From: [email protected] <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS
To: [email protected]
Date: Friday, February 25, 2011, 9:07 AM
Ada apa dengan pgas???
Sent from my BlackBerry®
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From: Radit <[email protected]>
Sender: [email protected]
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2011 14:39:53 +0700
To: <[email protected]>
ReplyTo: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS
itu utk bbri, salah liat stock saya,, maaf rekan2,,
2011/2/25 Radit <[email protected]>
eh maaf salah lihat, maaf :)
2011/2/25 Radit <[email protected]>
kalaupun turun mungkin akan coba sentuh 4525 dulu, abis itu rebound,, lagi
ngincer juga tapi masih ragu,,
2011/2/25 <[email protected]>
Mustinya minggu depan rebound nih
Tapi gak taulah
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From: Antony Iskandar <[email protected]>
Sender: [email protected]
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2011 23:26:34 -0800 (PST)
To: [email protected]<[email protected]>;
[email protected]<[email protected]>
ReplyTo: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS
Bagaimana menurut guru guru di sini. Apa pgas boleh collect. Saya lihat
stochatic sudah murah. Harga turun tapi volume terus naik.
Kalau bensin jadi dikonversi ke gas. Jangka panjang pegas bukanya bagus.
Mohon pencerahan. Siapkan duit utk buy pgas .
Sent from Yahoo! Mail on Android Galaxy Tab
From: [email protected] <[email protected]>;
To: <[email protected]>;
Subject: [saham] PGAS
Sent: Fri, Feb 25, 2011 7:15:58 AM
Bro Ian boleh bantu analisa pgas nih. Sbg case study besok
Hehehe
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