Subject: FW: Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ, Rp3,750 BUY) Steady Flow
Perusahaan Gas Negara Steady Flow BP Migas to prioritize oil production Falling oil production raises concerns for the government since revenues from oil exports remain important to balance out the cost of imported oil for consumption. In the past five years, oil production has been below 1.0mn barrels per day. This has prompted BP Migas to prioritize an increase in lifting capacity, including a shift in gas production to old oil fields. This is also the case for Conoco Phillips’s gas production. Instead of delivering gas to PGAS, Chevron was given priority to use Conoco Phillips’ gas in order to boost oil lifting capacity. Chevron has relatively old oil wells and they need to be injected with hot gas to lift the oil to the surface. As a consequence of this policy, PGAS’s gas allocation is below the contract numbers. Currently, Conoco Phillips is only able to provide 300-350 mmscfd of gas to PGAS, below its contract of 375mmscfd. Shortfall from Pertamina as well PGAS also has a gas purchase agreement with Pertamina amounting to 250 mmcfd. However, for unspecified reasons Pertamina has only been able to supply around 170-180 mmscfd or a maximum of 200mmscfd, which falls short of the initial volume under the sale and purchase agreement. PGAS has not been able to confirm when Pertamina will be able to deliver the gas as promised. So far PGAS has not imposed any penalty on Pertamina because of the shortfall. The management guidance of gas volume is around 800-850 mmscfd (which takes into account the shortfall from Pertamina and Conoco Phillips). Our estimate is below 800 mmscfd for the next five years, already reflecting the current situation. Construction to start on West Java floating terminal PGAS has started construction on the LNG receiving terminal in West Java. Total capex allocated for this project is around US$100mn, mainly for the onshore facility, pipeline and jetty. This capex excludes the FSRU unit as PGAS intends to lease the vessel from Golar Energy, a global FSRU operator. By leasing the vessel, PGAS will not bear the capex for the FSRU and operating start-up time could be faster. PGAS would, however, be liable to pay certain amounts that comprise maintenance and operational expenses. PGAS is fully aware of the lack of expertise it has in operating and maintaining such a unit. The total capacity of the receiving terminal is designed to handle gas of 500mmscfd. However, PGAS has so far only been able to secure around 140mmscfd that will be directly allocated to PLN. According to PGAS, this is basically the break-even volume. Any volume above that amount will translate into profits for PGAS. This project is under PT Regas Nusantara, a joint venture between PGAS (40%) and Pertamina (60%). The project is expected to start commercial operation in 2H12 or early FY13. Maintain BUY We have already incorporated the shortfall of gas supply from Conoco Phillips and Pertamina in our model. We have not included the upside potential from the LNG receiving terminal due to a lack of gas supply at the current time. With these assumptions we arrive at a DCF Target Price of Rp5,430. BUY maintained. Chandra S. Pasaribu (62-21) 351 0748 [email protected] --- On Fri, 2/25/11, sahamvalas <[email protected]> wrote: From: sahamvalas <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS To: [email protected] Date: Friday, February 25, 2011, 10:27 AM Subject: PGN : Revising volume estimates; retaining Buy Deutsche Bank - Equity Research - Asia PGN : Revising volume estimates; retaining BuyPGN {Ticker: PGAS.JK, Closing Price: 3,750 IDR, Target Price: 5,100 IDR, Recommendation: Buy} Valuation undemanding, though lacking near-term catalyst PGAS had underperformed of late due to supply concerns; in the absence of a material catalyst, this may continue in the near term given the difficult market sentiment. However, at 12x FY11, the stock remains undemanding and offers a decent dividend yield of c.4%; its mid- to long-term potential remains intact given strong gas demand and potential new supply from LNG. Thus, we retain Buy. Flat volume in 2011 The company is moderating its guidance due to uncertainties about supply ramp-up from Pertamina (due to technical issues in the field) and Conoco (being diverted by regulators to Chevron in 1H11), extensions of expiring contracts (2Q11) and negotiations on new supply contracts. However, we estimate that at the minimum, alternative supply for Chevron is likely in 2H11, allowing Conoco to ramp up supply to PGAS; along with ramp-ups from Medco and new flow from Husky, this should balance expiring supplies in 2Q. Lowering 2011 EPS forecast by 9.6%; still implies 14% EPS growth We therefore lower our volume assumptions (flat yoy in 2011F vs. 8% growth previously), factoring in lower Conoco ramp-up and flat Pertamina supply. Our revised 2011F EPS still implies 14% yoy growth (in line with consensus), driven by the FY impact of last year’s April gas selling price increase. Revising target price to Rp5,100 (from Rp5,500) We base our target price on DCF based on WACC of 10.9% (unchanged); the revision reflects our earnings cuts above. Key risks: Slower volume ramp-up, a lower-than-expected price increase, and unexpected change in government policy with regard to the pricing of gas sales. --- On Fri, 2/25/11, [email protected] <[email protected]> wrote: From: [email protected] <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS To: [email protected] Date: Friday, February 25, 2011, 9:07 AM Ada apa dengan pgas??? Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT From: Radit <[email protected]> Sender: [email protected] Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2011 14:39:53 +0700 To: <[email protected]> ReplyTo: [email protected] Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS itu utk bbri, salah liat stock saya,, maaf rekan2,, 2011/2/25 Radit <[email protected]> eh maaf salah lihat, maaf :) 2011/2/25 Radit <[email protected]> kalaupun turun mungkin akan coba sentuh 4525 dulu, abis itu rebound,, lagi ngincer juga tapi masih ragu,, 2011/2/25 <[email protected]> Mustinya minggu depan rebound nih Tapi gak taulah Powered by Shortsell From: Antony Iskandar <[email protected]> Sender: [email protected] Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2011 23:26:34 -0800 (PST) To: [email protected]<[email protected]>; [email protected]<[email protected]> ReplyTo: [email protected] Subject: Re: [saham] PGAS Bagaimana menurut guru guru di sini. Apa pgas boleh collect. Saya lihat stochatic sudah murah. Harga turun tapi volume terus naik. Kalau bensin jadi dikonversi ke gas. Jangka panjang pegas bukanya bagus. Mohon pencerahan. Siapkan duit utk buy pgas . Sent from Yahoo! Mail on Android Galaxy Tab From: [email protected] <[email protected]>; To: <[email protected]>; Subject: [saham] PGAS Sent: Fri, Feb 25, 2011 7:15:58 AM Bro Ian boleh bantu analisa pgas nih. Sbg case study besok Hehehe Powered by Shortsell
