Hati-hati....... ASII sudah bagi deviden... On Fri, Jun 3, 2011 at 8:31 AM, positif01 <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > Reasonable profitable trading/investing prospect of 2011, ASII and Banks? > (look at the bottom of this note). > > The major US market averages finished June 1 near their worst levels of the > session, with all three losing close to 2.3%. > > *Financial shares lagged the broader market, and were the worst performing > sector* within the S&P 500. As a whole the group *lost 3.5%*, *with US > leading bank index (KBW Bank Index) slumped -4,11%*. Even though, there > was a fractional improvement this morning of US financial sector market > average for +0,2%, it was a little tiny recoup compared the loss on Wed. > Meanwhile, *NASDAQ OMX Global Coal Index*, consisting of 29 coal producers > worldwide, *only dropped -0,62%* during the US harsh down slide on Wed. > Its decline added this morning simply due to adjustment of non-US coal > producers to the US down slide the day before. > > *Past weeks diary:* > > -May 26, Goldman Sachs: Lower US S&P 500 year-end 2011 price target to 1450 > from 1500, and emphasize at sector level the largest changes in earnings > estimates for $2 *increase in Energy* 2012 EPS and a $2 *decrease in > Financials *earnings and a *smaller negative revision to Consumer > Discretionary*. > > -May 27, Morgan Stanley: Downgrade Indonesian equities to UW (underweight) > or commonly known as "Sell" following the same status for Thai equities on > May 25. At the same time, Morgan Stanley announced to include Indonesian > coal producer, PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) replacing Perusahaan Gas > Negara (PGN), into its Equity Strategy Focus List for GEMs (Global Emerging > Markets) and APxJ (Asia Pacific ex Japan), each consists of 20 tight > selected stock only. GEMs is based on MSCI Emerging Market Index covering > 21 countries, while APxJ is based on MSCI AC (All Country) Asia ex Japan > Index covering 10 developed and emerging market country. > > May 27, Goldman Sachs: Upgrade Indonesian-led ASEAN coal industry to > Neutral from Cautious. At the same time, Goldman Sachs raised all Indonesian > coal producers target prices. > > *Target Price (TP)* > * > * > Trading houses set fundamental target price to be reached within 12-month. > The target describes if there is upside or downside potential within a year. > If a stock price is under the TP, potential upside remains. If a stock price > is above the TP, no potential upside left, downside is expected. If a stock > price is precisely or at narrow band of TP, significant gain potential > percentage should be set for the remainder 6 months, waiting period of 2011 > trading year. > > *ASII* > > -Goldman Sachs TP in our previous posting ( > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/message/118287): IDR49,000, as seen at > the following chart. ASII latest closing price IDR, June 1, IDR59,100. > Objectively *expensive*, OR reasonably profitably *cheap* for holding? > > [image: GS-ASII TP (March 2011).png] > > > *Banks* > * > * > We do not go specific with each Indo bank, but careful insight into > majority of listed banks has long alerted a shaky ground. As you can see in > the comparison chart below between MSCI Emerging Markets Banks (*orange > line*) versus MSCI Indonesian Financial (*green line*), which consists > nothing but Indo Banks, you will find that historically these two major > indices have never decoupled or disparate quite long more than 2 or 3 > months. Find which direction, MSCI Indo Banks will take the coming weeks, up > or down? Is it a gap up or gap down with MSCI Emerging Markets Banks? > > [image: MSCI Emerging Bank vs MSCI Indo Finance (May 2011).JPG] > > '+' > > >
