Rekomendasi 24 Juni, when BUMI was closed at 3,125. '+'
On Tue, Jun 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM, PH™ <[email protected]> wrote: > ** > > > Research Today: Bumi Resources (Bumi IJ), Pulling all levers – BUY – > Tp4,000 by Jayden Vantarakis > > Best coal asset by far at the cheapest valuation. Catalyst for re-rating > will be deleveraging balance sheet. Mgmt confirmed last week that > deleveraging its their number 1 priority. Regardless of CIC deal or not, > repayment of the first US$600m tranche this October is on track with > internal cash flow. Market seem to be disappointed with swapping 75% of > BRMS with US$2.07b vallar convertible note without further clarity in > plans. However, we feel that this lays the path to further pay down CIC > debt. Herald resources will be an extremely attractive asset (highest > concentration zinc and lead deposit) for the Chinese to participate in. > Furthermore, CB puts a real value to BRMS where it currently does not > reflect full value in Bumi’s share price. Jayden Vantarakis re-iterates buy > call based on earnings upside as debt is repaid. > > Debt plans outlaid > > At an analyst briefing last week Bumi confirmed it is negotiating with CIC > to retire the full US$1.9b debt this year in exchange for the convertible > notes, enabling CIC to become a shareholder in Vallar. If talks are not > successful, Bumi will sell down the convertible note in stages as the debt > tranches fall due. Regardless, repayment of the first US$600m tranche this > October is on track as the company has access to US$787m in liquidity as of > June. > > On track for 66mt production this year > > BUMI produced 14mt during 1Q11 and is on track to produce 30mt for 1H11. > This will be in line with prior years where 44% of annual production is > realized in the first half. We keep our 2011CL assumptions unchanged with > 66mt and ASP US$91/t. The 32mt KPC conveyer belt is on track to be > completed by 1H12, potentially as early as 1Q12. This will double production > capacity to 64mt. > > Accounting changes to gain Vallar FTSE 100 listing > > In order for Vallar to obtain entry to the FTSE 100, the company’s accounts > must be adjusted in line with international peers. The key change for Bumi > is the recognition of its share of KPC and Arutmin at the top line. This has > minimal impact on future earnings forecasts for the company. > > Stock is cheap compared to peers > > Assuming full repayment, Bumi will save $361m in annual interest costs, > implying US$1.1bn in earnings for 2012 and 7x P/E. Based on the long run > average of 15x earnings multiple, a bluesky fair value then would be 6,350 > per share. Our 2012CL earnings forecast and Rp4,000 target price only > incorporates repayment of the first tranche of US$600m to CIC this October. > The stock is currently the cheapest Indonesian coal play offering 28% > upside. Strong BUY. > > Note: Despite recent sell off in commodities. Aussie coal price climbs as > rains cut production.Australia’s thermal coal prices rose by more than > US$2/ton WOW to tip past US$121 per ton, as heavy rains in the Hunter > Valley region slowed output. COMMENT: China has commenced restocking ahead > of peak power demand during the 3rd quarter, however inventory levels are up > month on month meaning a near term pause. We met Chinese coal traders in > town telling us they need restock big-time in the 2HAny Australian spot > price increase against this backdrop is positive and will flow through to > Indonesian thermal coal indices. The 2 most leveraged stocks to index linked > pricing are BUMI and HRUM. > > > saham.ws<http://saham.ws/wp/2011/06/28/bumi-resources-pulling-all-levers-buy/> > > > > >
