hmm....so smart, thanks. 2011/6/28 positif01 <[email protected]>
> ** > > > Rekomendasi 24 Juni, when BUMI was closed at 3,125. > > '+' > > > > On Tue, Jun 28, 2011 at 11:45 AM, PH™ <[email protected]> wrote: > >> ** >> >> >> Research Today: Bumi Resources (Bumi IJ), Pulling all levers – BUY – >> Tp4,000 by Jayden Vantarakis >> >> Best coal asset by far at the cheapest valuation. Catalyst for re-rating >> will be deleveraging balance sheet. Mgmt confirmed last week that >> deleveraging its their number 1 priority. Regardless of CIC deal or not, >> repayment of the first US$600m tranche this October is on track with >> internal cash flow. Market seem to be disappointed with swapping 75% of >> BRMS with US$2.07b vallar convertible note without further clarity in >> plans. However, we feel that this lays the path to further pay down CIC >> debt. Herald resources will be an extremely attractive asset (highest >> concentration zinc and lead deposit) for the Chinese to participate in. >> Furthermore, CB puts a real value to BRMS where it currently does not >> reflect full value in Bumi’s share price. Jayden Vantarakis re-iterates buy >> call based on earnings upside as debt is repaid. >> >> Debt plans outlaid >> >> At an analyst briefing last week Bumi confirmed it is negotiating with CIC >> to retire the full US$1.9b debt this year in exchange for the convertible >> notes, enabling CIC to become a shareholder in Vallar. If talks are not >> successful, Bumi will sell down the convertible note in stages as the debt >> tranches fall due. Regardless, repayment of the first US$600m tranche this >> October is on track as the company has access to US$787m in liquidity as of >> June. >> >> On track for 66mt production this year >> >> BUMI produced 14mt during 1Q11 and is on track to produce 30mt for 1H11. >> This will be in line with prior years where 44% of annual production is >> realized in the first half. We keep our 2011CL assumptions unchanged with >> 66mt and ASP US$91/t. The 32mt KPC conveyer belt is on track to be >> completed by 1H12, potentially as early as 1Q12. This will double production >> capacity to 64mt. >> >> Accounting changes to gain Vallar FTSE 100 listing >> >> In order for Vallar to obtain entry to the FTSE 100, the company’s >> accounts must be adjusted in line with international peers. The key change >> for Bumi is the recognition of its share of KPC and Arutmin at the top line. >> This has minimal impact on future earnings forecasts for the company. >> >> Stock is cheap compared to peers >> >> Assuming full repayment, Bumi will save $361m in annual interest costs, >> implying US$1.1bn in earnings for 2012 and 7x P/E. Based on the long run >> average of 15x earnings multiple, a bluesky fair value then would be 6,350 >> per share. Our 2012CL earnings forecast and Rp4,000 target price only >> incorporates repayment of the first tranche of US$600m to CIC this October. >> The stock is currently the cheapest Indonesian coal play offering 28% >> upside. Strong BUY. >> >> Note: Despite recent sell off in commodities. Aussie coal price climbs >> as rains cut production.Australia’s thermal coal prices rose by more than >> US$2/ton WOW to tip past US$121 per ton, as heavy rains in the Hunter >> Valley region slowed output. COMMENT: China has commenced restocking ahead >> of peak power demand during the 3rd quarter, however inventory levels are up >> month on month meaning a near term pause. We met Chinese coal traders in >> town telling us they need restock big-time in the 2HAny Australian spot >> price increase against this backdrop is positive and will flow through to >> Indonesian thermal coal indices. The 2 most leveraged stocks to index linked >> pricing are BUMI and HRUM. >> >> >> saham.ws<http://saham.ws/wp/2011/06/28/bumi-resources-pulling-all-levers-buy/> >> >> >> >> > >
