Nah iya setuju sekali Pak, justru itu, maksud saya kan US Government lagi kena kasus hampir default, yang artinya cashflow pemerintah lagi gak mencukupi untuk membayar hutang. Logikanya adalah, bagaimana bisa pemerintah yang sedang kacau cashflownya meluncurkan fiscal policy baru yang notabenenya akan memunculkan kebutuhan dana baru yang belum dipersiapkan sebelumnya. Makanya, untuk terjadinya fiscal policy yang signifikan, persoalan dana pemerintah harus diselesaikan terlebih dahulu.
Pendapat Bapak untuk menaikkan pajak orang kaya mungkin sebagai salah satu jalan keluar, tapi biasanya penerimaan pajak negara itu kecil Pak, gak bisa nutupin seluruh pengeluarannya. Bahkan di saat terjadi perang di europe tahun 1900an, dimana pemerintah harus menyiapkan banyak biaya perang, penerimaan pajak hanyalah kurang dari 10% spending negara tersebut, sisanya dari bond issue. jadi menurut saya menaikkan pajak orang kaya kurang efektif pada saat seperti ini. Seperti yang bernanke bilang di jackson hole beberapa saat yang lalu, indikator saving masyarakat mencapai titik tertinggi, yang artinya masyarakat amerika sekarang sedang memperbaiki balance sheet nya yang sempat kacau balau karena krisis 2008, setelah itu baru mereka bisa melakukan consumption. Nah yang ini mungkin lorong gelap yang panjang yang harus dilalui amerika sebelum bisa bangkit dengan kecepatan yang lumayan, menunggu masyarakat memperbaiki balance sheet mereka supaya dapat memulai spending. Tugas pemerintah amerika? tinggal mengawasi pertumbuhan dan situasi ekonomi agar balance sheet yang sedang diperbaiki tersebut, tidak jatuh lagi nilainya. Regards, Daymas Ryan Dipo ________________________________ Dari: dario kurniawan <[email protected]> Kepada: [email protected] Dikirim: Jumat, 9 September 2011 13:07 Judul: Re: Bls: [saham] Obama Offers $447 Billion Spending, Tax-Cut Jobs Plan kira2 nalar saya cerita nya masyarakat begini..kebijakan fiskal itu urusan pemerintah, sedang the fed yg disuruh mikir tentang moneter..jadi obama bikin kebijakan naikkan spending buat masyarakat berkonsumsi, pemerintah mau belanja, misal bikin jembatan, bikin gedung2, dsb...obama bukan cut spending tapi cut tax supaya tidak membebani masyarakat dulu..di satu sisi obama cut tax, di sisi lain dia uber pajak mungkin dari para orang kaya di sana atau dari mana sajalah, dari hasil pajak tadi pemerintah belanja buat mendorong kegiatan konsumsi, dan dari sanalah diharapkan mulai muncul perbaikan kualitas hidup rakyat US. Tapi opini saya ekonomi US apakah akan membaik secepat itu ? saya liatnya setidaknya mulai ada kestabilan, tapi outlook ekonomi US masih harus melewati lorong gelap yang panjang...bukannya apa2 hutang amerika sudah dipertanyakan...logikanya misalkan PDB amerika 100, tapi hutangnya juga 100, ini bagaimana bisa ada profit buat negara ? Mau cetak duit ? silakan saja cetak duit krn memang hak mereka..tapi nilainya dolar gimana jadinya ? pasti babak belur..jadi ke depan jangan aneh kalo dolar bisa ke 3000-4000 rupiah...ceritanya panjang deh...dunia ke depannya masih bisa bubble lagi kalo saya liat secara di atas kertas...gimana bisa bubble ? beneran panjang ceritanya :D DarioAmran --- Pada Jum, 9/9/11, [email protected] <[email protected]> menulis: >Dari: [email protected] <[email protected]> >Judul: Re: Bls: [saham] Obama Offers $447 Billion Spending, Tax-Cut Jobs Plan >Kepada: [email protected] >Tanggal: Jumat, 9 September, 2011, 8:56 AM > > > >Setuju pak, untuk menjaga demand side supaya titik ekuilibriumnya gak berubah. >Jadi yang dibutuhkan bukan quantitative easing, tapi fiscal policy dari us >government seperti social security agar masyarakan bisa menambah spending. >Masalahnya, us government sendiri lg cut spending gara gara kasus hutang, jadi >gimana dia bisa bikin fiscal policy? >Sent from my BlackBerry® >powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT >________________________________ > >From: dario kurniawan <[email protected]> >Sender: [email protected] >Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2011 09:51:31 +0800 (SGT) >To: <[email protected]> >ReplyTo: [email protected] >Subject: Bls: [saham] Obama Offers $447 Billion Spending, Tax-Cut Jobs Plan > > >yang paling manjur kalau negara dalam keadaan krisis adalah menjaga spending >masyarakat...bukan perusahaan...beri masyarakat uang (kasih kerjaan) supaya >mereka bisa spending..beli sembako, beli baju, dsb..nanti pelan2 pendapatan >negara dari pajak akan bertambah dari masyarakat itu sendiri... > >saya inget waktu obama terpilih jadi presiden, ada analis dari perguruan >tinggi disana bilang kalo obama terpilih tujuan negara akan jelas karena >kebijakannya bersifat damai dengan siapapun.. > > >DarioAmran > >--- Pada Jum, 9/9/11, Bagya <[email protected]> menulis: > > >>Dari: Bagya <[email protected]> >>Judul: [saham] Obama Offers $447 Billion Spending, Tax-Cut Jobs Plan >>Kepada: [email protected] >>Tanggal: Jumat, 9 September, 2011, 8:37 AM >> >> >>Salam ijo tebal! >> >> >> >>Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama called on Congress to pass a >>jobs plan that would inject $447 billion into the economy through >>infrastructure spending, subsidies to local governments to stem teacher >>layoffs and cutting in half the payroll taxes paid by workers and >>small-business owners. >> >>The package is heavily geared toward tax cuts, which account for more than >>half the dollar value of the stimulus, and administration officials said they >>believe that will have the greatest appeal to Republican members of Congress. >> >>“The question is whether, in the face of an ongoing national crisis, we can >>stop the political circus and actually do something to help the economy,” >>Obama told a joint session of Congress tonight. >> >>A $105 billion infrastructure proposal includes money for school >>modernization, transportation projects and rehabilitation of vacant properties. Most of the economic impact from the infrastructure spending would be next year, though some of it would come in 2013, an administration official said. >> >>“Ultimately, our recovery will be driven not by Washington, but by our >>businesses and workers,” the president said. “But we can help. We can make a >>difference.” >> >>The administration estimated that $35 billion it’s seeking in direct aid to >>state and local governments to stem layoffs of educators and emergency >>personnel would save the jobs of 280,000 teachers, according to a White House >>fact sheet. >> >>Payroll Tax Cuts >> >>The centerpiece of the plan is cuts in payroll taxes, which cover the first >>$106,800 in earnings and are evenly split between employers and employees. >>Obama would reduce the portion paid by workers next year to 3.1 percent from >>4.2 percent now. The rate was cut 2 percentage points under the terms of a >>tax deal reached last year. That cut is set to expire Dec. 31, which would push it back to 6.2 percent. >> >>The White House also would use temporary payroll tax cuts next year to offer >>incentives for new hiring and assist small businesses. >> >>Businesses would get the same 3.1-point reduction on taxes they pay on the >>first $5 million of their payroll, a limit that skews the benefit toward >>smaller firms. The full 6.2 percent employer contribution would be waived on >>the first $50 million net increase in a company’s payroll. >> >>The proposal includes additional tax credits for hiring veterans and workers >>who have been unemployed more than six months. The administration also wants >>to make it illegal for employers to discriminate against applicants who are >>unemployed. >> >>Boost to Growth >> >>The fiscal boost from the jobs package next year would be larger than in the >>first year of the 2009 economic stimulus, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at >>Moody’s Analytics Inc. >> >>Zandi, who was briefed on the plan before the president’s speech, forecast passage of the entire jobs package would add 2 percentage points to economic growth next year and bring down the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point compared with current policy, under which a temporary payroll tax cut and an extended unemployment benefits both expire Dec. 31. >> >>With his address to a rare joint session of Congress on jobs, the top concern >>of voters as the 2012 election campaign gets under way, Obama is seeking to >>frame choices for voters as much as present a plan for lawmakers. >> >>He proposed the stimulus plan in the House chamber, where the Republican >>majority has signaled opposition to new spending. As job growth has stalled >>and the unemployment rate hovers above 9 percent, Obama’s job-approval >>ratings are scraping new lows as public doubts about his stewardship of the >>economy rise. >> >>Urging Action >> >>Six times in the 32-minute speech Obama urged Congress to pass his proposal “right away.” >> >>In a direct challenge to Republican law makers, Obama said, “For everyone who >>speaks so passionately about making life easier for ‘job creators,’ this plan >>is for you.” >> >>“I know some of you have sworn oaths to never raise any taxes on anyone for >>as long as you live,” he said. “Now is not the time to carve out an exception >>and raise middle-class taxes, which is why you should pass this bill right >>away.” >> >>He said he intends to take his message “to every corner of this country.” >>Tomorrow he will speak in Richmond, Virginia, in the district represented by >>House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a Republican who has been one of Obama’s >>chief critics in the chamber. Next week he’ll go to Columbus, Ohio. >> >>House Speaker John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said Obama’s plans “merit >>consideration. We hope he gives serious consideration to our ideas as well.” >> >>Covering Cost >> >>Obama said the cost of the initiative will be covered and that on Sept. 19 he >>will propose almost $2 trillion in deficit reductions, including cutting >>Medicare costs, to the special 12- member congressional committee charged >>with coming up a long- term deficit plan. >> >>In another step aimed at the long-term jobless, Obama proposed granting >>states authority to pay unemployment benefits to people who have been jobless >>more than six months while they train for jobs at businesses at no cost to >>the employer for up to eight weeks. >> >>States also would be able to use unemployment insurance funds to make up for >>wages lost by workers whose hours were cut back in lieu of a layoff and for >>workers 50 and older who took a lower-paying job after a layoff. >> >>The White House wants to incorporate the changes in the unemployment >>insurance program along with a one-year continuation of extended unemployment >>benefits due to expire Dec. 31. The extended benefits cover jobless workers for up to 99 weeks. >> >>The administration considered and rejected a temporary repatriation holiday >>that would allow companies to return overseas profits without paying >>corporate income taxes on the proceeds. The White House concluded that it >>would not have as great an impact on job growth as the hiring incentives it >>included, said an administration official. >> >>To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in Washington D.C. at >>[email protected] . >> >>To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at >>[email protected] . >> >>=== >>Sent from Bloomberg for Blackberry. Download it from the Blackberry App World! >>Thanks, >>Bagya >>Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® >> >>------------------------------------ >> >>Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. >> >>SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN >>MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL >>EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK >>INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. >> >>[email protected] untuk berhenti dari milis saham >>[email protected] untuk bergabung ke milis saham >>Yahoo! Groups Links >> >> >> >> >>
