Kemarin WIKA closed di harga 540 dengan volume yg luar biasa besar. Beberapa sekuritas masih merekomendasikan BUY saham ini dengan target harga 810 – 820. Dan yg terpenting, WIKA termasuk saham DEFENSIF STOCK.
*Wijaya Karya* *1Q11 performance* § WIKA booked 1Q11 earnings growth of 33.7% y-y to IDR86b, slightly higher than our and consensus estimates, partly due to higher-than-expected net interest income of IDR20b from IDR4b y-y. § WIKA’s 1Q11 operating profit grew 7.9% y-y to IDR107b, still in line with our and consensus estimates. This, however, brought down operating margin to 6.9% from 8.8% in 1Q10. Similar to the construction sector’s general overall performance, we expect acceleration to occur in the following quarters, paving the way for margin improvement. § On the top line, WIKA reported 1Q11 revenue of IDR1.5t, up 36.3% y-y, in line with our and consensus estimates. WIKA’s 1Q11 revenue achievement of 16.7% of our full-year estimate was higher than ADHI’s 7.1%. *Outlook* In 2011, WIKA aims to secure new contracts of IDR12t, bringing total book order close to IDR25t, up 20.5% y-y. With substantial projects on hand and improvements on the acceleration of construction completion as well as tender process, we maintain our 2011 earnings of IDR341.6b, up 20% y-y. *Recommendation and valuation* In line with our unchanged 2011 earnings forecast, we maintain our TP of WIKA at IDR820, translating to an implied PE of 14x, 20% discount to the regional average of 18x. With diversified businesses and prudent management decision on continuous expansions through various investments, WIKA remains as our top pick within the construction sector. BUY. Subject: Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ; BUY; TP IDR810) Result Review: 1Q11 results meets our expectations ON THE PLATTER: Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ; BUY; TP IDR810) Result Review: 1Q11 results meets our expectations WIKA posted its 1Q11 results, which came in mostly in line with our expectations. Revenue climbed 36% y-o-y to IDR1.54tn and net profit jumped 36% y-o-y IDR86bn, meeting 25% of our FY11 estimate. We continue to like WIKA for its diversified operations, strong earnings growth, solid balance sheet, and being the most liquid among construction stocks. Buy maintained with TP of IDR810. · 1Q11 results mostly in line. Wijaya Karya (WIKA) posted 1Q11 net profit of IDR86bn in 1Q11, up 36% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q, and represented 25% and 27% of our FY11 and consensus’ forecast, respectively. The strong net y-o-y net profit growth was on the back of a 36% expansion in the revenue to IDR1.54tn, which further cascaded to a 19% increase in operating profit to IDR106.9bn. 1Q11 revenue and operating profit were 19% each of our FY11 forecast. Last year, 1Q10 revenue and operating profit also made up 19% FY10 figures. One reason for the better bottom-line showing came from a lower effective tax rate to 26%in 1Q11 compare to 30% in 1Q10 as revenue contribution from non-construction segment rose higher than construction segment , which pay final 3% tax from revenue vs. normal tax rate. · Weakening q-o-q on seasonality. The 1Q11 results appear to be weakening on quarterly basis with revenue and operating profit declining 26% and 44%. This largely due to typical seasonality on contractor obtaining the largest portion of contract from government related projects, which is normally tendered during second half of the year. Last year, WIKA booked 34% and 40% its revenue and operating profit in 4Q10. Thus, we should not worry about margin contractions in 1Q11. · Growing order book and expect more to come. By 1Q11, the company has bagged a total contract of IDR2.25tn, grew by 55% y-o-y, and met 18% of our total new contract target for 2011. This should gradually increase over the next quarters on seasonality mentioned above. The contracts mostly are infrastructure related projects such as toll road, power plant, sea port and bridge. Strong economic fundamental and improved sovereign ratings should continue attracting investment, especially in the physical expansion, which in turn increase construction activities. · Maintain our Buy call with TP of IDR810. We continue to like WIKA for its diversified operations, strong earnings growth, solid balance sheet, and being the most liquid among construction stocks. The counter is now trading at 11.8x its 2011 earnings, relative to 22% growth. We maintain our PER-based target price of IDR810 and Buy call on WIKA. -- send from my hoki blackberry@
