Defensif? ntar juga jebol gawangnya sama bandar,segera menanti new low 450 On Fri, Oct 28, 2011 at 9:15 AM, Bambang Kansah <[email protected]>wrote:
> > > Kemarin WIKA closed di harga 540 dengan volume yg luar biasa besar. > Beberapa sekuritas masih merekomendasikan BUY saham ini dengan target harga > 810 – 820. Dan yg terpenting, WIKA termasuk saham DEFENSIF STOCK. > > > > > *Wijaya Karya* > > > *1Q11 performance* > § WIKA booked 1Q11 earnings growth of 33.7% y-y to IDR86b, > slightly higher than our and consensus estimates, partly due to > higher-than-expected net interest income of IDR20b from IDR4b y-y. > > § WIKA’s 1Q11 operating profit grew 7.9% y-y to IDR107b, still in > line with our and consensus estimates. This, however, brought down > operating margin to 6.9% from 8.8% in 1Q10. Similar to the construction > sector’s general overall performance, we expect acceleration to occur in > the following quarters, paving the way for margin improvement. > > § On the top line, WIKA reported 1Q11 revenue of IDR1.5t, up 36.3% > y-y, in line with our and consensus estimates. WIKA’s 1Q11 revenue > achievement of 16.7% of our full-year estimate was higher than ADHI’s 7.1%. > > > *Outlook* > In 2011, WIKA aims to secure new contracts of IDR12t, bringing total book > order close to IDR25t, up 20.5% y-y. With substantial projects on hand and > improvements on the acceleration of construction completion as well as > tender process, we maintain our 2011 earnings of IDR341.6b, up 20% y-y. > > *Recommendation and valuation* > In line with our unchanged 2011 earnings forecast, we maintain our TP of > WIKA at IDR820, translating to an implied PE of 14x, 20% discount to the > regional average of 18x. With diversified businesses and prudent management > decision on continuous expansions through various investments, WIKA remains > as our top pick within the construction sector. BUY. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Subject: Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ; BUY; TP IDR810) Result Review: 1Q11 > results meets our expectations > > ON THE PLATTER: > > > > Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ; BUY; TP IDR810) Result Review: 1Q11 results meets > our expectations > > WIKA posted its 1Q11 results, which came in mostly in line with our > expectations. Revenue climbed 36% y-o-y to IDR1.54tn and net profit jumped > 36% y-o-y IDR86bn, meeting 25% of our FY11 estimate. We continue to like > WIKA for its diversified operations, strong earnings growth, solid > balance sheet, and being the most liquid among construction stocks. Buy > maintained with TP of IDR810. > > > > · 1Q11 results mostly in line. Wijaya Karya (WIKA) posted 1Q11 net > profit of IDR86bn in 1Q11, up 36% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q, and represented 25% > and 27% of our FY11 and consensus’ forecast, respectively. The strong net > y-o-y net profit growth was on the back of a 36% expansion in the revenue > to IDR1.54tn, which further cascaded to a 19% increase in operating profit > to IDR106.9bn. 1Q11 revenue and operating profit were 19% each of our FY11 > forecast. Last year, 1Q10 revenue and operating profit also made up 19% > FY10 figures. One reason for the better bottom-line showing came from a > lower effective tax rate to 26%in 1Q11 compare to 30% in 1Q10 as revenue > contribution from non-construction segment rose higher than construction > segment , which pay final 3% tax from revenue vs. normal tax rate. > > > > · Weakening q-o-q on seasonality. The 1Q11 results appear to be > weakening on quarterly basis with revenue and operating profit declining > 26% and 44%. This largely due to typical seasonality on contractor > obtaining the largest portion of contract from government related projects, > which is normally tendered during second half of the year. Last year, WIKA > booked 34% and 40% its revenue and operating profit in 4Q10. Thus, we > should not worry about margin contractions in 1Q11. > > > > · Growing order book and expect more to come. By 1Q11, the company > has bagged a total contract of IDR2.25tn, grew by 55% y-o-y, and met 18% of > our total new contract target for 2011. This should gradually increase over > the next quarters on seasonality mentioned above. The contracts mostly are > infrastructure related projects such as toll road, power plant, sea port > and bridge. Strong economic fundamental and improved sovereign ratings > should continue attracting investment, especially in the physical > expansion, which in turn increase construction activities. > > > > · Maintain our Buy call with TP of IDR810. We continue to like WIKA > for its diversified operations, strong earnings growth, solid balance > sheet, and being the most liquid among construction stocks. The counter is > now trading at 11.8x its 2011 earnings, relative to 22% growth. We maintain > our PER-based target price of IDR810 and Buy call on WIKA. > > > -- > send from my hoki blackberry@ > >
