Sebagaimana muncul dalam *sub-heading* "*Background* Ekuitas Domestik
Indonesia Pertengahan Maret" dalam *tweet* kami Senin, 19 Maret, yang
berjudul: "Harum Energy (HRUM) *Roadshow Goes to Europe* Minggu Ini
*by* Goldman
Sachs" (http://tinyurl.com/6mwjcym), disebutkan:
"Meredanya euforia yang diimpor dari dinamika ekuitas AS dua minggu pertama
Maret, membantu mayoritas pelaku pasar untuk memetakan kembali secara lebih
jernih kekuatan dan kelemahan sektoral pasar. Berikut adalah *key
points* sepanjang
minggu lalu yang akan menjadi catatan tersendiri bagi IHSG mengakhiri bulan
Maret. *Key points* berikut akan dijelaskan lebih lanjut dalam *post*
individual
berikutnya."
Di antaranya:
"- Kamis, 15 Maret: J.P. Morgan ("JPM") merilis rekomendasi untuk investor
institusinya agar memulai *hedging* posisi terhadap model portofolio
ekuitas Indonesia atas pertimbangan kenaikan BBM pasca-pemangkasan subsidi,
melalui *shifting*/peralihan sektoral.
JPM:* In ASEAN, our focus was to rotate into energy stocks. We sold United
Tractors (UNTR IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). We advise
investors look
to hedges against higher energy prices – OW Energy. Domestic demand plays –
Banks and consumer discretionary stocks underperformed over the last
quarter. Sectors that benefit form a weaker Rupiah – Utilities, Industrials
and Energy have been outperformers recently*;"
Dalam rilis riset ekuitas yang bertajuk "Key Trades and Risks" pada 15
Maret lalu JPM sudah kembali mewanti-wanti ekuitas Indonesia atas "fuel
prices in focus". JPM mengumumkan perubahan Model Portofolio Regional APxJ
(Asia Pacific ex-Japan) termasuk saham pilihan dari Indonesia. Dalam sell
side-nya JPM mengambil posisi keluar/jual terhadap United Tactors (UNTR)
dan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI).
Lebih lanjut JPM menekankan pentingnya antisipasi kenaikan BBM
pasca-pemangkasan subsidi BBM.
*Indonesia: Fuel prices in focus*
*
*
*Distinctive country drivers*
*MSCI Indonesia is a significant underperformer among MSCI EM countries in
2012. This is in sharp contrast to it 24% outperformance in 2011. The
catalysts for recent weakness are: A weak Rupiah (IDR depreciated vs. USD
by 8% and 1.2% since Sep 2011 and ytd respectively). Currently CPI is
benign (3.5% y/y in March) but the plan to raise domestic fuel prices in
April will result in higher inflation. Domestic demand plays – Banks
and consumer
discretionary stocks underperformed over the last quarter. Sectors that
benefit form a weaker Rupiah – Utilities, Industrials and Energy have been
outperformers recently.*
*
*
*Factors driving future performance*
*The trajectory Inflation as well as the policy response could be a source
of uncertainty through 2012. We forecast a 33% gasoline increase which is
calculated to result in a CPI peak over 8%oya. It should then moderate. We
forecast no more interest rate reductions in 2012. Moody’s & Fitch
upgrading Indonesia to investment grade, the land acquisition law and fuel
price increases set the stage to step up infrastructure spending – which is
an imperative for growth to sustain. Recent policy curbs on foreign
ownership in the mining sector may add to uncertainty, potentially putting
premium multiples at risk. The economy should be resilient to higher fuel
prices. Growth may moderate this year, but should remain well above 5%.
12-15% nominal GDP growth rate translates to strong and consistent EPS growth
– and a strong reason to maintain long term positions in the market.
Declining discount rates make a 13x forward multiple reasonable relative to
growth.*
*
*
*Indonesia’s 32% premium to MSCI EM on 12m Fwd PE is a source of risk. A
current account dipping to a deficit (0.6% of GDP expected in FY12E) means
that the balance of payments are dependent on Capital Flows. Rising wages
boost consumption in the short term, but could hit competitiveness and FDI
over the long term.*
*
*
*Investment strategy*
*
*
*We advise investors look to hedges against higher energy prices.*
--
'+'
Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo
Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir
kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami.
