hehehe......ralat jual BBRI juga..... [:D] [:p]
--- In [email protected], "kangduren" <kangduren@...> wrote: > > weleh JPMorgan koq keknya kamse, emang emiten energi bisa nambah pendapatan BBM naik? yg ada juga bisa turun lagi. > koq isi sama judul ga nyambung nih boss? isinya buy BBRI sell UNTR? > wedew....... > > --- In [email protected], positif01 positif01@ wrote: > > > > Sebagaimana muncul dalam *sub-heading* "*Background* Ekuitas Domestik > > Indonesia Pertengahan Maret" dalam *tweet* kami Senin, 19 Maret, yang > > berjudul: "Harum Energy (HRUM) *Roadshow Goes to Europe* Minggu Ini > > *by* Goldman > > Sachs" (http://tinyurl.com/6mwjcym), disebutkan: > > > > "Meredanya euforia yang diimpor dari dinamika ekuitas AS dua minggu pertama > > Maret, membantu mayoritas pelaku pasar untuk memetakan kembali secara lebih > > jernih kekuatan dan kelemahan sektoral pasar. Berikut adalah *key > > points* sepanjang > > minggu lalu yang akan menjadi catatan tersendiri bagi IHSG mengakhiri bulan > > Maret. *Key points* berikut akan dijelaskan lebih lanjut dalam *post* > > individual > > berikutnya." > > > > Di antaranya: > > > > "- Kamis, 15 Maret: J.P. Morgan ("JPM") merilis rekomendasi untuk investor > > institusinya agar memulai *hedging* posisi terhadap model portofolio > > ekuitas Indonesia atas pertimbangan kenaikan BBM pasca-pemangkasan subsidi, > > melalui *shifting*/peralihan sektoral. > > JPM:* In ASEAN, our focus was to rotate into energy stocks. We sold United > > Tractors (UNTR IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). We advise > > investors look > > to hedges against higher energy prices OW Energy. Domestic demand plays > > Banks and consumer discretionary stocks underperformed over the last > > quarter. Sectors that benefit form a weaker Rupiah Utilities, Industrials > > and Energy have been outperformers recently*;" > > > > Dalam rilis riset ekuitas yang bertajuk "Key Trades and Risks" pada 15 > > Maret lalu JPM sudah kembali mewanti-wanti ekuitas Indonesia atas "fuel > > prices in focus". JPM mengumumkan perubahan Model Portofolio Regional APxJ > > (Asia Pacific ex-Japan) termasuk saham pilihan dari Indonesia. Dalam sell > > side-nya JPM mengambil posisi keluar/jual terhadap United Tactors (UNTR) > > dan Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI). > > > > Lebih lanjut JPM menekankan pentingnya antisipasi kenaikan BBM > > pasca-pemangkasan subsidi BBM. > > > > *Indonesia: Fuel prices in focus* > > * > > * > > *Distinctive country drivers* > > *MSCI Indonesia is a significant underperformer among MSCI EM countries in > > 2012. This is in sharp contrast to it 24% outperformance in 2011. The > > catalysts for recent weakness are: A weak Rupiah (IDR depreciated vs. USD > > by 8% and 1.2% since Sep 2011 and ytd respectively). Currently CPI is > > benign (3.5% y/y in March) but the plan to raise domestic fuel prices in > > April will result in higher inflation. Domestic demand plays Banks > > and consumer > > discretionary stocks underperformed over the last quarter. Sectors that > > benefit form a weaker Rupiah Utilities, Industrials and Energy have been > > outperformers recently.* > > * > > * > > *Factors driving future performance* > > *The trajectory Inflation as well as the policy response could be a source > > of uncertainty through 2012. We forecast a 33% gasoline increase which is > > calculated to result in a CPI peak over 8%oya. It should then moderate. We > > forecast no more interest rate reductions in 2012. Moody's & Fitch > > upgrading Indonesia to investment grade, the land acquisition law and fuel > > price increases set the stage to step up infrastructure spending which is > > an imperative for growth to sustain. Recent policy curbs on foreign > > ownership in the mining sector may add to uncertainty, potentially putting > > premium multiples at risk. The economy should be resilient to higher fuel > > prices. Growth may moderate this year, but should remain well above 5%. > > 12-15% nominal GDP growth rate translates to strong and consistent EPS growth > > and a strong reason to maintain long term positions in the market. > > Declining discount rates make a 13x forward multiple reasonable relative to > > growth.* > > * > > * > > *Indonesia's 32% premium to MSCI EM on 12m Fwd PE is a source of risk. A > > current account dipping to a deficit (0.6% of GDP expected in FY12E) means > > that the balance of payments are dependent on Capital Flows. Rising wages > > boost consumption in the short term, but could hit competitiveness and FDI > > over the long term.* > > * > > * > > *Investment strategy* > > * > > * > > *We advise investors look to hedges against higher energy prices.* > > -- > > '+' > > > > Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo > > > > Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir > > kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami. > > >
