[agi] Re: Real AGI Brain

[rouncer81]

an exponential curve to do with text generation models,  is history attention 
being log proportional to how many patterns you need.   so you need more than 
than 10% compression,  you need an impossible amount.
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[agi] Re: Real AGI Brain

[immortal . discoveries]

My context model mixing high order modelling (order0-20) with Online Learning 
got the 100MB losslessly compressed to 24MB bytes in 34 mins. C++. Now I'm 9MB 
away from world record. I had to come up with my own mixing formula. It uses an 
exponential curve, I'm unsure if this is what others use the curve for though. 
I can probably fine tune the settings more to get it lower, I set them by hand 
for 2 hours.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[rouncer81]

how dangerous are viruses, and it will show how dangerous a nanobot is.  why do 
they do x,  look in your microscope.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[immortal . discoveries]

So you know, we KNOW nanobots and metal men are coming, they will be in the lab 
with tentacles and 50 eyes n their head etc. But what's in the skull? What in 
his hand exactly? What in THAT? And what's between these views? I.e. what is in 
the hallway near lab? Where do the nanobots return to? Why do they do X? So we 
do entailment/transform (many to one, one to many) to summarize/elaborate and 
move around the future.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[rouncer81]

zoom in,  in what way?
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[immortal . discoveries]

On Wednesday, January 29, 2020, at 4:32 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
> We aren't smart enough to look ahead more than one advance in intelligence, 
> or else we could just skip to that step.
Hehe. "me thinks replicating nanobots will take over one day, but can't make 
them"

We are getting smarter on a weekly basis now. We can approx. see the future, we 
are sorta there although there will be still a big jump from 'us'. We can see 
the future but not the details of it. That's interesting. We need to zoom in 
simply.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[Matt Mahoney]

I think Vernor Vinge meant a singularity in the mathematical sense. At
least that was my interpretation of his paper. If each doubling or n-fold
increase of progress takes half the time, then that's exactly what you get.
We can't say it won't happen because a singularity is an event horizon on
our view of the future. We aren't smart enough to look ahead more than one
advance in intelligence, or else we could just skip to that step. Our
understanding of physics could be wrong. Historically it always has been.

But I don't believe infinite progress will happen, and neither do a lot of
people. So we co-opt the word singularity to mean something weaker. We did
the same with AI, which is why we need a new term (AGI) to mean what AI
originally meant.

On Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 2:42 PM WriterOfMinds 
wrote:

> "In either case, the numbers are finite, so there will be no singularity."
>
> Does the average person (or indeed any person) who uses the term
> "singularity" genuinely expect that any physical quantity will go to
> infinity?  That was not my impression.  I take "technological singularity"
> as a metaphor that means a dramatic leap in capacity, beyond which life as
> we now know it will be obsolete.  Arguing against the singularity because
> it can't literally be a mathematical singularity seems like a straw man.
> *Artificial General Intelligence List *
> / AGI / see discussions  +
> participants  + delivery
> options  Permalink
> 
>

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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[immortal . discoveries]

Well, with my example above, the volume does keep growing non-linearly lol. So 
in a sense, yes, the singularity is sorta real.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[rouncer81]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3I2zeoUbzg <-look free nrg.  =)  infinito.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[WriterOfMinds]

"In either case, the numbers are finite, so there will be no singularity."

Does the average person (or indeed any person) who uses the term "singularity" 
genuinely expect that any physical quantity will go to infinity?  That was not 
my impression.  I take "technological singularity" as a metaphor that means a 
dramatic leap in capacity, beyond which life as we now know it will be 
obsolete.  Arguing against the singularity because it can't literally be a 
mathematical singularity seems like a straw man.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[rouncer81]

a 1024 qbit computer is already 10^308, a small exponential qbit quantum 
computer would be something like 2^1 billion.  which is even more.   i dont 
think putting natural amplitude limits on a quantum computers power actually is 
what you do...  more think of permutations of space,  a chess board has heaps. 
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[Matt Mahoney]

On Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 1:25 PM  wrote:

> what if a quantum computer isnt a finite amount of qbits,  its actually an
> exponential amount.
>

Lloyd calculated the computing capacity of the universe to be 10^120
quantum operations and 10^90 bits. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141

A qubit flip in time t requires borrowing h/2t energy, where h is Planck's
constant (6.626 x 10^-34 J-s). If you converted all the 1.5 x 10^53 kg of
mass in the universe to energy (E = mc^2 = 1.3 x 10^70 J) then you get
about 10^120 operations over the age of the universe, 4 x 10^17 s.

Memory can be encoded in the positions and momentums of the universe's
10^80 particles with resolution h (by Heisenberg's uncertainty principle)
and bounded by available energy. This gives you 10^90 bits.

I get similar numbers using a different calculation. The Bekenstein bound (
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bekenstein_bound )  of the entropy
contained in the Hubble radius (13.8 billion light years) is 1/ln 16 bits
per Planck unit area of the enclosing sphere. This is 2.95 x 10^122 bits.
(Coincidentally this gives you roughly the size of a proton as the volume
of a bit, independent of the properties of any particles). This is the
upper bound for a black hole, which would be a little more than the actual
mass of the universe, so the actual information content is smaller.

But most of these bits are not usable. Reading and writing memory,
including reading the output of a quantum computer, are not time reversible
operations, and therefore not quantum. These operations require by the
Landauer principle kT/ln 2 free energy, where k is Boltzmann's constant,
1.38 x 10^-23 J/K, and T is the cosmic background radiation temperature of
the universe = 3 K. This gives you about 10^92 memory bit operations.

In either case, the numbers are finite, so there will be no singularity.




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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[immortal . discoveries]

Events are exponential, I think once the group settles and runs out of 
updates/resources they hang/wait, until another system finishes it's S 
curve.so it's many S curves happening at different times, slowly combining, 
and faster later on.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[immortal . discoveries]

Remember I drew a pic few months ago showing how Earth radiating replicators 
like a growing sphere means it can double. Earth can touch/eats 6 planets 
around itself, then can touch 2456..170. The larger the volume the 
larger volume it can gain
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[agi] Re: rotten brainz made video (plz watch stefan)

[rouncer81]

Its only if secrets are kept.  maybe I cant,  But I would normally...     
things get too precious,   but I do respect u Stefan,  but I need more friends 
in person,  not on the internet - its too untrustworthy... :P
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[rouncer81]

what if a quantum computer isnt a finite amount of qbits,  its actually an 
exponential amount.
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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[Matt Mahoney]

On Wed, Jan 29, 2020, 1:14 AM  wrote:

> If we ignore all this detail, we can see Evolution of Earth has been
> exponential.
>

Evolution is chaotic, not exponential. It has long periods where nothing
happens, punctuated by mass proliferation and mass extinction when a new
species evolves a major survival advantage. Examples include the transition
from RNA to DNA, protein synthesis, photosynthesis, oxidizing metabolism,
multicellular organisms (the Cambrian explosion) with muscles, brains, and
sensory organs, sexual reproduction, and human language allowing us to work
as groups and development technology. Each burst starts off with
exponential growth until it exhausts resources and establishes its place as
the new dominant lifeform.

We are in the exponential phase of human proliferation and mass extinction
of other species now. But population growth peaked in 1970 and is slowing
now. The rate of increase of life expectancy peaked at 0.2 years per year
in 1990. Computer clock speeds leveled off at 2-3 GHz in 2010. By 2030 we
will not be able to shrink transistors any more.

There is still room for other species to dominate humans, species that we
create ourselves using nanotechnology instead of DNA. Plants produce only
250 TW (terawatts) of carbohydrates from the 90,000 TW of sunlight
available at the Earth's surface. (Global energy production is 15 TW). We
already have solar panels that are 20-30% efficient. We already know how to
make tiny wheels and electric motors out of metal and plastic. We can make
mechanical computing elements out of molecules that are a billion times
more efficient than transistors and a thousand times more efficient than
neurons. We can build a Dyson sphere to capture all of the sun's 3.84 x
10^26 watts. We can seed planets throughout the galaxy with self
replicating nanotechnology using conventional rockets over millions of
years.

But this is not a singularity. The observable universe has finite computing
capacity, 10^120 quantum operations and 10^90 bits of memory. Progress must
eventually stop.

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Re: [agi] Re: Understanding Compression

[rouncer81]

 "once the passcode is broken, all the jail inmates can run past the door".    
thats only if its not kept a secret, by the person that works it out.
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