Re: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread Alex Tabarrok

Tom Grey wrote

> Further, I derive support for this from limited thought experiments:
> Society A: more Atheist,
> Society B: more Bible Believing.
> 
> In which society do I expect more fraud? more cheating spouses &
> promiscuity? more theft? more murder?
> Well, even without empirical support, I believe B will be better for me to
> live in, whether I, personally, am a weak Episcopalian/ agnostic/ atheist/
> or devout believer.

The data do not seem to support the hypothesis  England and France, for
example, are much less bible believing than the U.S. but overall have
lower crime rates (and despite their reputation the French are
apparently not especially promiscious).  The U.S. South is much more
bible believing than the North but crime rates are higher.  Atheism
increases with education and income (even more clearly "bible beleving"
falls with education and income) but crime falls with education and
income.  

The hypothesis is not well framed but if we were to say simply that
societies with more bible believing should have lower crime rates etc.
than that is even more decisively refuted because most of the world is
not bible believing and the Asian societies, in particular, appear to
have lower crime rates etc.  

It's tricky, but by some measures Confucian's, for example, can be
considered atheists (Confucious was a person not a god) albeit not
secular atheists.  I have little doubt that you will find that
Confucian's in the United States say have lower rates of crime etc. than
bible believers.

None of this controls for other factors, of course, so I do not
claim causality and of course counter-examples can be found (no need to
mention them) but the limited-evidence ought to be enough to cast doubt
on the limited thought experiments.

Alex


-- 
Dr. Alexander Tabarrok
Vice President and Director of Research
The Independent Institute
100 Swan Way
Oakland, CA, 94621-1428
Tel. 510-632-1366, FAX: 510-568-6040
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]




RE: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread Grey Thomas

> >>Irrespective of the "objective" truth of the Bible, the 
> superiority of a
> >>"Bible believing society" is a position I strongly believe, 
> >>
> 
> Doesn't your position commit you to believing that the people in our 
> society who do not believe in the Bible
> are in fact mostly selfish mean criminals?  What empirical support is 
> there for this claim?  
> 
> 
Most folks criminals/immoral? Not at all, only generally more immorally
acting people as belief goes down.

Further, I derive support for this from limited thought experiments:
Society A: more Atheist,
Society B: more Bible Believing.

In which society do I expect more fraud? more cheating spouses &
promiscuity? more theft? more murder?
Well, even without empirical support, I believe B will be better for me to
live in, whether I, personally, am a weak Episcopalian/ agnostic/ atheist/
or devout believer.

I'd be very interested in your answers to the following:
1) Which of the two Societies, more Atheist or more Believing, do you
believe would be better?
2) Do you have empirical support for your belief?
3) Does empirical support matter in "this case"?

Recall this is my initial attempt to answer Alex's question about what
changes peoples' minds.  But my 2 & 3 challenges above also touch on the
Occam's razor issue earlier and the burden of proof with respect to the
existence of God.

I do not think the atheist has to prove there is no God -- his job is much
harder.  He has to prove, empirically, that an more atheist society is
better than one with more believers.  Until he can do so, it seems quite
rational for believers who want a better overall society to remain
believers--don't you think?

Not to leave it unsaid, the recent Nazi & Commie attempts at atheistic
societies in practice (empirical evidence?) make me think any anti-believer
has a lot of problems.

Tom Grey, 
an American Libertarian/neo-conservative, happily living in ex-Commie
Slovakia
(you're welcome to write me directly too)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]







RE: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread john hull

This seems awfully off topic, but the notion that
atheism implies an immoral society is not true.  For a
primer, visit:
www.infidels.org/library/modern/nontheism/atheism/morality-and-atheism.html

Regarding believing biblical creation, every person
should know that the Bible contradicts itself on
creation.  One example: 

GE 1:11-12, 26-27 Trees were created before man was
created.
GE 2:4-9 Man was created before trees were created.

Insisting on the LITERAL truth a story that is
internally inconsistent does not put one on the
logical or factual high ground.

That said, courtesy demands that I welcome rebuttals,
but I'll not continue on this tangent myself.

Thanks,
-jsh


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Re: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread Robin Hanson

Grey Thomas wrote:

>>Let us assume the Bible is not true; further, that there is no Biblical God.
>>Thus, no basis for ANY of the 10 commandments, nor thus for any absolute
>>moral good vs. evil.  So fornication, adultery, stealing, murder are not 
>>This "obviously" results in a selfish, mean society full of big and little
>>criminals who are constantly calculating how to cheat and steal the most
>>while getting away with it; life is for the current momentary pleasure. ...
>>Irrespective of the "objective" truth of the Bible, the superiority of a
>>"Bible believing society" is a position I strongly believe, 
>>

Doesn't your position commit you to believing that the people in our 
society who do not believe in the Bible
are in fact mostly selfish mean criminals?  What empirical support is 
there for this claim?  






RE: Republican Reversal -- from whence, belief?

2002-07-18 Thread Grey Thomas


> -Original Message-
> From: Alex Tabarrok [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 
> 
> If information doesn't change people's minds - what does?  Or, at
> least, what causes people to have the beliefs that they have?  This is
> where Bryan's important work comes in.  Understanding these sorts of
> questions will give us a much better understanding of social change.
> 
> Alex 
> 
There seems to be an assumption, in all academic, scientific, philosophic,
religious pursuits, that: The Truth is Good.

Since this so obviously cannot be proven, it seems never discussed
explicitly, but when I question, "if the truth is NOT good, which is
better?", the obvious answer is "the Good".  Tautologically (I think).

Now Bible based religions claim they are true, and good.  (This almost
implies that if they are NOT true, they are not good.)

Let us assume the Bible is not true; further, that there is no Biblical God.
Thus, no basis for ANY of the 10 commandments, nor thus for any absolute
moral good vs. evil.  

So fornication, adultery, stealing, murder are not "evil", but merely
illegal (or not) under certain circumstances; and true social morality is
exactly equal to only that which is legislated.  There is no meaning to
life, no reason to live or to not live constantly drugged out; there is no
hell to fear, so the only reason to avoid murder is fear of police.

This "obviously" results in a selfish, mean society full of big and little
criminals who are constantly calculating how to cheat and steal the most
while getting away with it; life is for the current momentary pleasure.  Or,
as Ken Lay or many others might have said at some time, it's OK if you don't
get caught.

This (presumed) reality is obviously BAD-reality will NOT be GOOD if the
Bible is not true.  

Therefore, only if the Bible IS true, can the (presumed) reality be good.

---

I believe that the above brief rationale captures some of the unarticulated
impulses for believing in the Bible.   In other words, a Bible believing
society is better than an atheist believing society.

Irrespective of the "objective" truth of the Bible, the superiority of a
"Bible believing society" is a position I strongly believe, and I've heard
that F.A. Hayek, privately, believed. (Can anybody corroborate this?). 

Finally, if, to achieve the better Bible believing society, it is required
to proclaim belief   this is pretty acceptable.  [fill in the
disputed fact: the Earth is the center of the universe; God created humans
in the last 10 000 years, etc; acceptable until science can more strongly
falsify the belief AND the falsification or not is relevant to most people's
lives.]

I also find it curiously rational.

Tom Grey