RE: Channeling...
I demand to have some booze! 10 points to anyone who can determine which movie that comes from. Curtis. -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Dave Land Sent: 30 September 2008 02:09 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Channeling... \On Sep 29, 2008, at 12:54 PM, Jon Louis Mann wrote: In this case, Jon claims that John Williams is channeling erstwhile list-member Eric Rueter with his gruff posts. I don't recall a list member of that name, but there was an Erik Reuter. OK, Mr. Spelling Person, I stand corrected :-). Dave as i said before it was not i... My apologies. Credit for introducing the You are X and I demand my Y meme goes to Rob. Thanks for helping me remember that it is Erik, not Eric. I was fooled by Rob's message, I think. Dave ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Channeling...
On 30/09/2008, at 6:24 PM, Curtis Burisch wrote: I demand to have some booze! 10 points to anyone who can determine which movie that comes from. Withnail and I, you terrible c**t. So, can you construct a Camberwell Carrot? Do you cover yourself in Deep Heat to stay warm? Have you gone 60 hours with the only solid passing your lips being a raw spud? Charlie. Too Easy Maru ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Channeling...
10 points to Charlie!! And, in answer to your questions: Yes, no, and yes! Curtis Get in the back of the van Maru! -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Charlie Bell Sent: 30 September 2008 11:49 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Channeling... On 30/09/2008, at 6:24 PM, Curtis Burisch wrote: I demand to have some booze! 10 points to anyone who can determine which movie that comes from. Withnail and I, you terrible c**t. So, can you construct a Camberwell Carrot? Do you cover yourself in Deep Heat to stay warm? Have you gone 60 hours with the only solid passing your lips being a raw spud? Charlie. Too Easy Maru ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Economic Recovery Plan
Jon Louis Mann wrote: Instead of a 700 billion dollar bailout for corporate America, loan that money to qualified American families who need to save their home. Bail out homeowners, rather than banks; that should solve the housing crisis. Each family would get... hmmm... 10,000 dollars? Sort of. It would hardly scratch the problem, since, AFAIK, each family's debts are about two magnitudes highter than that. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Economic Recovery Plan
10,000 bucks would make a difference -- an extra $1000 a month for 10 months would almost certainly ease the situation. The problem is not the debt itself, but the increased cost of servicing that debt that has resulted from higher interest rates. Curtis -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Alberto Monteiro Sent: 30 September 2008 13:09 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Economic Recovery Plan Jon Louis Mann wrote: Instead of a 700 billion dollar bailout for corporate America, loan that money to qualified American families who need to save their home. Bail out homeowners, rather than banks; that should solve the housing crisis. Each family would get... hmmm... 10,000 dollars? Sort of. It would hardly scratch the problem, since, AFAIK, each family's debts are about two magnitudes highter than that. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: My contribution to the bail-out
-- Original message -- From: John Williams [EMAIL PROTECTED] Dan M Once told to me, the reason is obvious: flight to quality during a panic. Do you differ? Do I disagree that this was once told to you? Well, your view is such a mixture of accepting and rejecting common ecconomics, I do tend to forget what you accept as verified and what you say can't be verified as a result of complexity. In other words, I cannot put together a consistent model of your posts...'though I'm trying. There are two worthwhile points here. First, 0.16% per year interest (given the present ~4% inflation rate) is close to money under the mattress. Second, the rise of the dollar indicates and the drop in the Fed (together) indicates the belief that nothing in Europe is as safe as the US government, even though the problem is here now. We have to hope that this doesn't spread to nervousness about Deutchbank and/or Barkley's. Because if it does, to quote my old homeboy Zimmy from the '60s quote The highway is for gamblers, better use your sense Take what you have gathered from coincidence The empty handed painter from your streets Is drawing crazy patterns on your sheets . .. end quote I bet Julia and Rob can finish this. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: My contribution to the bail-out
[EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Well, your view is such a mixture of accepting and rejecting common ecconomics, Economists frequently disagree. Often, economics changes by having a professor at a prestigious university pump out a bunch of students with the same views. This kind of evolution is slow and not reliable since the selection forces rarely match with whether the theories unambiguously model the system (worse, the system keeps changing!). Consequently, I don't hold any economic theories strongly, but those that I do hold are shared by some economists who have studied the data, and disagreed with by other economists. Apparently your method of studying economics is to survey all economists to find out which theory is the most common? Opinion poll economics! Second, the rise of the dollar indicates and the drop in the Fed (together) indicates the belief that nothing in Europe is as safe as the US government, even though the problem is here now. Nothing is strong. The dollar went up against a broad basket of currencies as they say. But did you check each of the major currencies that might be a safe place to stash some cash, to see if they were all down with respect to the dollar? I didn't (since I don't think the point is important), but I would before I would make a statement like nothing in Europe Even then I would be skeptical of my conclusion, since there are many factors affecting the system and I am sure I am not aware of all of them. We have to hope that this doesn't spread to nervousness about Deutchbank and/or Barkley's. We don't have to hope that. Personally, I hope that if either Barclay's or Deutsche Bank made a lot of bad choices in their investments, then they will fail and be replaced by a stronger bank or banks. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: My contribution to the bail-out
On Tue, Sep 30, 2008 at 8:10 AM, John Williams [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Well, your view is such a mixture of accepting and rejecting common ecconomics, Economists frequently disagree. More generally with each other than with themselves. Nick (who is tempted to disagree with the sentence above) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Economic Recovery Plan
On Tue, Sep 30, 2008 at 4:08 AM, Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote: Each family would get... hmmm... 10,000 dollars? Sort of. It would hardly scratch the problem, since, AFAIK, each family's debts are about two magnitudes highter than that. Eh? Two orders of magnitude more than $10,000 is $1 million. Let's go shopping! Nick ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: My contribution to the bail-out
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Tue, Sep 30, 2008 at 8:10 AM, John Williams wrote: Economists frequently disagree. More generally with each other than with themselves. I have seen a lot of I am of two minds statements by economists recently. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
I can't predict the future and I've been wrong quite a few times now
A loan interview: http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=186056 I can't predict the future and I've been wrong quite a few times now ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: My contribution to the bail-out
On Tue, 30 Sep 2008, John Williams wrote: Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Tue, Sep 30, 2008 at 8:10 AM, John Williams wrote: Economists frequently disagree. More generally with each other than with themselves. I have seen a lot of I am of two minds statements by economists recently. II I was of three minds, Like a tree In which there are three blackbirds. (From Thirteen Wasy of Looking at a Blackbird by Wallace Stevens.) Yeah. Maybe I should step away from the computer until I'm more caffeinated. Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Economic Recovery Plan
Nick Arnett wrote: Each family would get... hmmm... 10,000 dollars? Sort of. It would hardly scratch the problem, since, AFAIK, each family's debts are about two magnitudes highter than that. Eh? Two orders of magnitude more than $10,000 is $1 million. I based my estimates on the data I have - each family is in debt at 3x their properties, each property evaluated at $ 300,000. Am I wrong? Is it more than 1 MM? Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Economic Recovery Plan
On Tue, Sep 30, 2008 at 9:37 AM, Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED]wrote: Nick Arnett wrote: Each family would get... hmmm... 10,000 dollars? Sort of. It would hardly scratch the problem, since, AFAIK, each family's debts are about two magnitudes highter than that. Eh? Two orders of magnitude more than $10,000 is $1 million. I based my estimates on the data I have - each family is in debt at 3x their properties, each property evaluated at $ 300,000. Am I wrong? Is it more than 1 MM? Are you talking about personal debt or the U.S. national debt? Nick ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Economic Recovery Plan
Nick Arnett wrote: I based my estimates on the data I have - each family is in debt at 3x their properties, each property evaluated at $ 300,000. Am I wrong? Is it more than 1 MM? Are you talking about personal debt or the U.S. national debt? Personal debt. So, you think I am overestimating the crisis? Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Economic Recovery Plan
-Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Alberto Monteiro Sent: Tuesday, September 30, 2008 11:51 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: Economic Recovery Plan Nick Arnett wrote: I based my estimates on the data I have - each family is in debt at 3x their properties, each property evaluated at $ 300,000. Am I wrong? Is it more than 1 MM? Are you talking about personal debt or the U.S. national debt? Personal debt. So, you think I am overestimating the crisis? Definitely: I think that if you added up, even after the property price drop, the value of the houses, cars, and personal goods and retirement accounts and subtracted mortgages, credit card balances, auto loans, etc., the value of the debt is still only a fraction of the worth. I think I read that the average homeowner has 30% equity in their house, even now. Remember, there was a 50% rise in prices before the 20% drop. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Channeling...
Dave said: Thanks for helping me remember that it is Erik, not Eric. I was fooled by Rob's message, I think. I remember him getting annoyed with people continually making that mistake when he was here. I miss Erik's points of view, but not entirely his methods of presenting them. Rich ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: My contribution to the bail-out
-Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of John Williams Sent: Tuesday, September 30, 2008 10:11 AM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: My contribution to the bail-out We don't have to hope that. Personally, I hope that if either Barclay's or Deutsche Bank made a lot of bad choices in their investments, then they will fail and be replaced by a stronger bank or banks. As had been mentioned here before, they are both very highly leveraged. My memory is that Barclay's leveraged 30 to 1 and Deutsche Bank is leveraged about 50 to 1. That means a modest run on ether bank will result in them becoming unable to give people who request the money they put in the bank that money. Now, you may mention the recent purchases of banks that have had runs on them by other banks (after the FDIC paid off part of the bad debt). Let's look at the assets of these banks from Wikipedia: Citibank$1.50 trillion Chase $1.78 trillion Wachovia$783 billion WaMu$307 billion You notice that Citibank is almost twice the size of Wachovia and Chase is over 5x the size of WaMu. Both have 10% reserves, so they felt they were in position (with the Feds covering part of the bad debt) to buy the assets of the smaller banks. Now, let's look at Barclay's and Deutsche Bank. Barcley's 1.27 trillion pounds 2.3 trillion dollars Deutchbank €2.020 trillion2.9 trillion dollars If there is a run on one of them, the obvious thing to do is to find a bigger bank with less leverage than 30-50 to take over the assets. Do you know of any candidates who are in place to do so? Even if they didn't make toxic loans, good loans can turn bad with a panic pretty soon. Even if the long term position for the banks look good, they have precious little margin to survive a run. If there is a run on either bank that causes a failure, who is big enough to step in? As far as I know, the answer may be the EU the US government put together, but no private institution. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: My contribution to the bail-out
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED] As had been mentioned here before, they are both very highly leveraged. My memory is that Barclay's leveraged 30 to 1 and Deutsche Bank is leveraged about 50 to 1. That means a modest run on ether bank will result in them becoming unable to give people who request the money they put in the bank that money. You persist in oversimplifying, and in ignoring creditors and bondholders. I wonder if you have ever studied the balance sheet of a bank? I have mentioned before, and even given a link to a nice explanation, that for the large US investment banks, if they are declared insolvent and put into receivership, that there is enough debt to cover the bad assets without costing the customers and countparties a dime. I haven't looked at the balance sheets of Barclay's or Deutsche Bank, but I would guess that they are in the same situation. If you disagree, then perhaps you can take a look at their balance sheets and tell us what you find? ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
FWD: September Madness office pool
Unfortunately, playing is NOT optional . . . [begin forwarded message] Great News - It's not too late to enter this year's September Madness office pool. Here are the brackets as they currently stand: http://www.techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/septembermadnessb.jpg Just mark your picks and email them to your Congressman by 5:00 PM today. The entry fee is 20% of your retirement savings and is non-refundable if you lose; unless of course you bet $25 billion or more, in which case you might be bailed out if you smile real nice and say pretty please. The pool winner gets 65% of the pool and a $25 million severance check. Pool counsel, the lobbyists and various other influential hangers-on get 35%. The loser gets a third-position deed of trust on a no-money-down, half-built $800,000 condo in Fresno owned by some guy whose livelihood entails front-line delivery of circular Italian-American food products. Good Luck. [end forwarded message] ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
