Re: Passive-Agressive posting (was Re: The Role of Government in a Libertarian Free Market)
Patrick said: It's kind of like playing with that old Eliza computer program. Anyone remember that? From: Richard Baker r...@theculture.org ] Why do you say anyone remember that?? How do you feel when you read Why do you say anyone remember that??? -- Matt ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 10:33 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: Who would you have us listen to then? Each to his own. Maybe firefighters, upon arriving at a structure fire should observe scientifically to see if things were really burning as quickly as they seemed. That would be silly. We have many scientific experiments for what happens when a building is on fire. That is well known. It would also be silly to think the US economy is even in the same ballpark of being understood as a burning building. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 8:14 PM, John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.comwrote: On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 7:26 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: If he was the only one saying that there was a problem you might have a point, but as the vast majority of economists said that there was a huge problem Economists are no better at predicting the future than anyone else. How many economists do you know that got rich investing? The vast majority of economists do no better than average at investing. That's like asking how many coal miners got rich by fishing. The real question would be how many people get rich by investing based on economic theory, a much harder question to answer. As for Bernanke, he's in a position where his predictions can be somewhat self-fulfilling. What I think you are really arguing is that correlation clearly doesn't imply causation when it comes to economic predictions by influential people. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 7:57 AM, John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.comwrote: On Mon, Aug 24, 2009 at 10:33 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: Who would you have us listen to then? Each to his own. Maybe firefighters, upon arriving at a structure fire should observe scientifically to see if things were really burning as quickly as they seemed. That would be silly. We have many scientific experiments for what happens when a building is on fire. That is well known. Only in the general sense. Predicting the behavior of a particular fire is extraordinarily difficult. I have dead friends as a result of the unpredictability of firefighting. Like the economy, any significant fire is a chaotic system that is virtually impossible to scientifically assess in real time and can change very rapidly and thus very difficult to predict. It would also be silly to think the US economy is even in the same ballpark of being understood as a burning building. It seems rather apt in some respects. Like economists faced with the decision of whether to intervene directly or not, firefighters have to decide whether or not the possible benefits of making entry outweigh the risks. They have to decide whether or not to divert resources that may be needed for another fire. And despite all of the science that's been done, the main thing you want to have when you're fighting a significant fire is experienced people leading you. Sounds a lot like the dismal science to me. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 8:35 AM, Nick Arnettnick.arn...@gmail.com wrote: As for Bernanke, he's in a position where his predictions can be somewhat self-fulfilling. I don't know about that, but the fact is, most of his predictions were wrong. So far, he has missed all the important calls. But people seem to have short memories. As I said, if you predict a recovery every year, eventually you will be right. What I did not mention, is that many people will only remember the last prediction, especially if that is the one that Bernanke uses to proclaim his triumph in a speech. What I think you are really arguing is that correlation clearly doesn't imply causation when it comes to economic predictions by influential people. No, not really. I am arguing what I wrote, which is that economists are no better than the average person at predicting the future of a large economy. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 8:41 AM, Nick Arnettnick.arn...@gmail.com wrote: Only in the general sense. Which is what was under discussion. If a significant part of a building is on fire (i.e., not just a fireplace or whatever), it is not likely that anyone able to explore the building will miss the fact that the building is on fire, and people could predict with good accuracy whether that fire is likely to go out without intervention. It is absurd to compare a burning building to the US economy. On one hand, you have the economy where even someone as distinguished as Ben Bernanke has repeatedly failed to predict fundamental concepts such as whether a disaster was imminent or whether smooth sailing was ahead. On the other hand, you have a burning building, where firefighters (and most anyone who is able to look around the building, for that matter) knows that the building is burning and has some idea of what will happen if there is no intervention. With the burning building, it is extremely unlikely that a horde of people will individually, or as a group, study the situation, form plans each using their own specialized knowledge of the situation, and proceed to solve the problem of the burning building, a little bit at a time. But in a large economy like in the US, this is exactly what has been happening every day, for decades. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
- Original Message - From: John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.com To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Tuesday, August 25, 2009 11:10 AM Subject: Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader With the burning building, it is extremely unlikely that a horde of people will individually, or as a group, study the situation, form plans each using their own specialized knowledge of the situation, and proceed to solve the problem of the burning building, a little bit at a time. Sounds a lot like what firemen do for a living. H.maybe exactly what firemen do for a living. But in a large economy like in the US, this is exactly what has been happening every day, for decades. Economic predictions have a way of changing conditions so that the prediction never occurs or is minimalized. xponent Hurricane Warnings Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 2:56 PM, xponentrobxponent...@comcast.net wrote: - Original Message - From: John Williams jwilliams4...@gmail.com With the burning building, it is extremely unlikely that a horde of people will individually, or as a group, study the situation, form plans each using their own specialized knowledge of the situation, and proceed to solve the problem of the burning building, a little bit at a time. Sounds a lot like what firemen do for a living. Maybe (I don't think so, but no matter). More importantly, I think the thread of thought has been lost here. The point is, would non-fireman do that if the firemen decided to wait and observe, as Doug suggested? ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
More Pluto Goofyness . . .
What's a planet? Debate over Pluto rages on - CNN.com http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/space/08/24/pluto.dwarf.planet/index.html ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
John Williams wrote: Maybe (I don't think so, but no matter). More importantly, I think the thread of thought has been lost here. The point is, would non-fireman do that if the firemen decided to wait and observe, as Doug suggested? My point was that we look to our experts in a crisis. If our experts lay out a course of action for us and we demure, its on our heads weather it be a burnt building or a burnt economy. You'e stated that the vast majority of economists do no better than average at investing. First, can you substantiate that statement? Second, what does that really have to do with the financial crisis? John wrote earlier: Each to his own. OK, I pick Warren Buffet, second richest man in the world who termed the present crisis as an economic pearl harbor. Doug OK, how about Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Ben Bernanke, fearless leader
On Tue, Aug 25, 2009 at 5:21 PM, Doug Pensingerbrig...@zo.com wrote: My point was that we look to our experts in a crisis. If our experts lay out a course of action for us and we demure, its on our heads weather it be a burnt building or a burnt economy. I think I understood your point. Mine was that economists are not really experts in any useful knowledge. They cannot predict the course of the economy any better than non-economists. Also, I dispute your claim that the vast majority of economist are in favor of throwing money at the situation. Here are hundreds of economists who disagree with that approach: http://www.cato.org/special/stimulus09/alternate_version.html Notwithstanding reports that all economists are now Keynesians and that we all support a big increase in the burden of government, we do not believe that more government spending is a way to improve economic performance You've stated that the vast majority of economists do no better than average at investing. First, can you substantiate that statement? I don't have references at hand, but I have read several surveys of economists and how they had their money invested, and the majority of them had money market funds, bonds or bond funds, and index funds. Virtually none of them had much money invested in specific companies or even sectors, the type of thing you would do if you were good at predicting the future of the economy. Furthermore, few distinguished investors are economists. One of the few I can think of is Robert C. Merton, who was on the board of directors of Long Term Capital Management, and I guess you know how that turned out. Second, what does that really have to do with the financial crisis? If one cannot predict how financial systems will evolve, then one cannot credibly say that if we do this, then it will make things better. OK, I pick Warren Buffet, second richest man in the world who termed the present crisis as an economic pearl harbor. Warren Buffett (and Berkshire shareholders) benefited financially from the bailout of Goldman (and indirectly, AIG), so it would be against Buffett's own financial interests, and probably against his sense of duty to his shareholders, for him to speak out against the bailout. Also, Buffett does not have much faith in academics and the idealized techniques used by economists: “Naturally the disservice done students and gullible investment professionals who have swallowed EMS (Efficient Market Theory) has been an extraordinary service to us and other followers of Graham. From a selfish standpoint, we should probably endow chairs to ensure the perpetual teaching of EMT.” --Warren Buffett ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: More Pluto Goofyness . . .
On Aug 25, 2009, at 6:03 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: What's a planet? Debate over Pluto rages on - CNN.com http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/space/08/24/pluto.dwarf.planet/index.html http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts-apparel/unisex/sciencemath/8964/ ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
