RE: The thread about the thread Re: DeLong on health insurance reform
No apologies needed. I just remember so well person after person taking on JDG trying to talk about different stuff (abortion, death penalty, politics). While I think Dan talked the longest and the hardest, I came to feel the guy just got off on fanning flames of dissention. Sort of like what's going on now, IMO. Well, not surprisingly, I differ. With respect to JDG, while we cannot really know the motivations of others, everything I see indicated that he expressed strongly held convictions that differed from yours. As Obama said this morning, we should be able to civilly differ when strongly held opinions differ...particularly on a mailing list where RL is only occassionally involved. For a while Brin-L was a place where I feel those exchanges could take place. I think the break point came with the big blow up..on Brin-L 1a. There were RL complications from that blow-up, and the list has not been the same since. Part of it is that, IMHO, IAAMOAC was so compromised, that it passionate discussions became more personal. Another part is that a number of regular participants left the list immediately. At the present time I, a former Obama delegate, is the closest thing to a long time conservative voice on this list (e.g. I was the one arguing strongly against the idea that Bush deliberately destroying the twin towers is as believeable as the official version of 9-11) . Like the blogosphererespect for differing opinions have diminished here. I would suggest that is part of the reason why contrary opinions are usually found with folks like John. This is not a friendly place for a conservative, even one who could find welcome among very prominent liberal voices. And Yeah, the women probably are hiding. I understand your problem with signal to noise, but when John isn't stirring something up, to first order, everyone is hiding. Back in April, there was not one post from a woman, and less than 50 from men. You and I probably define signal and noise differently, but those 50 posts contained very little new and interesting. Nothing wrong with them, just that they didn't say much. So, the signal is clearly down from what it was before the break-up. I'll agree the signal/noise ratio is down, but IMHO, the lack of signal is the biggest contributing cause. If you notice how many different folks posted in the last 6 weeks compared to the number of posters in April-May, you will see that a lot more people feel they have something to say now. Even you. :-) Dan M. myhosting.com - Premium Microsoft® Windows® and Linux web and application hosting - http://link.myhosting.com/myhosting ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Tread about the Tread
Subject: The thread about the thread Re: DeLong on health insurance reform David wrote: Hi. There I was, doing my bit to produce list. traffic Sorry... No apologies needed. I just remember person after person taking on JDG trying to talk about different stuff (abortion, death penalty, politics). While I think Dan talked the longest and hardest, I came to feel the guy just got off on fanning flames of dissension. Sort of like what's going on now, IMO. And yeah, the women probably are hiding. And Keith wrote: If we do solve the energy crisis in a way that gets rid of fossil fuels, then we might still it have climate change, but isn't likely to be a big problem. Enough energy and we can pull CO2 out of the air. Work it out, 300 TW years will convert 100 ppm of CO2 to synthetic oil which could be stored in empty oil fields. So then, you think we should focus on the energy crisis and not worry about population levels? Interesting. If that's what you are saying, I'll have to mull that one over. I've spent so long worrying about populations, this will be a major shift in thinking for me. H... glad to see you're not hiding joanne, so maybe I will stop lurking, again!~) it is really hard not to get drawn in by the trolls, however, and their specious arguments... energy and population are related and neither issue can be ignored at the expense of the other... jon ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: The thread about the thread
Dan M. wrote: So, the signal is clearly down from what it was before the break-up. I'll agree the signal/noise ratio is down, but IMHO, the lack of signal is the biggest contributing cause. If you notice how many different folks posted in the last 6 weeks compared to the number of posters in April-May, you will see that a lot more people feel they have something to say now. Even you. :-) You suppose that the cause is the break-up, but I don't think so. In _all_ mailing lists that I take part, the signal/noise ration has shifted towards noise in an alarming rate. Even I don't bother to read e-mails during the weekends - I seldom miss something really worth discussing. I think e-mail is dying. Most people prefer posting in blogs or similar media. I, for example, prefer trolling in the Wikipedia and other sites like that. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Knowledge of Complex Systems and Ecconomics
On 2009-09-05, Dan M wrote: We know that, while we cannot see trends as absolute rules when dealing with complex systems, the most persimmons model consistent within the data has the best chance of being a reasonable approximation of what we will understand as we gain a better, more detailed understanding of the system. In addition, it has the best change of future predictions. Note, I didn't say that it would always be right; there are many times that extrapolations beyond data are wrong. But, if one were to consider all possible theories available at the time,, one's best chance of being close is choosing that theory. I had a feeling that I had predicted the crisis, but I didn't find my message. Here it is: Subject: Welcome to Hyperinflation! Date: 2008-08-29 12:30 I was just checking the evolution of PPI (PPI and CPI measure inflation in the USA), and noticed that _this year_ the accumulated inflation is about 10% (!!!) Welcome to Hyperinflation. If you want any hints on how to survive and prosper under hyperinflation, just ask me. Brazil had it for decades. Which means that I could see the sympthoms of the next blow-up, but not the actual blow-up... Alberto Monteiro, brin-l cassandra number 2 (number 1 is JDG) ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Knowledge of Complex Systems and Ecconomics
Original Message: - From: Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro albm...@centroin.com.br Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:13:40 + To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: Knowledge of Complex Systems and Ecconomics On 2009-09-05, Dan M wrote: We know that, while we cannot see trends as absolute rules when dealing with complex systems, the most persimmons model consistent within the data has the best chance of being a reasonable approximation of what we will understand as we gain a better, more detailed understanding of the system. In addition, it has the best change of future predictions. Note, I didn't say that it would always be right; there are many times that extrapolations beyond data are wrong. But, if one were to consider all possible theories available at the time,, one's best chance of being close is choosing that theory. I had a feeling that I had predicted the crisis, but I didn't find my message. Here it is: Subject: Welcome to Hyperinflation! Date: 2008-08-29 12:30 I was just checking the evolution of PPI (PPI and CPI measure inflation in the USA), and noticed that _this year_ the accumulated inflation is about 10% (!!!) Where did you get that? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we've had deflation of about 1% over the past 12 months and inflation of 1.7% over the past 7 months. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm Dan M. Dan M. mail2web.com What can On Demand Business Solutions do for you? http://link.mail2web.com/Business/SharePoint ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Knowledge of Complex Systems and Ecconomics
Here a title I have never heard before, Econophysicist! Interesting article on economic predictions. http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24098/ learner On Sep 10, 2009, at 4:13 PM, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote: I had a feeling that I had predicted the crisis, but I didn't find my message. Here it is: Subject: Welcome to Hyperinflation! Date: 2008-08-29 12:30 I was just checking the evolution of PPI (PPI and CPI measure inflation in the USA), and noticed that _this year_ the accumulated inflation is about 10% (!!!) Welcome to Hyperinflation. If you want any hints on how to survive and prosper under hyperinflation, just ask me. Brazil had it for decades. Which means that I could see the sympthoms of the next blow-up, but not the actual blow-up... Alberto Monteiro, brin-l cassandra number 2 (number 1 is JDG) ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Knowledge of Complex Systems and Ecch-onomics
At 04:44 PM Thursday 9/10/2009, Chris Frandsen wrote: Here a title I have never heard before, Econophysicist! How long until we hear about Relativistic Inflation . . . ? :P . . . ronn! :) ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
