Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread TiredLegs

mortslim;424436 Wrote: 
 If you sell a service below your costs (this is hypothetical as I have
 no idea what Napster's costs are) then you are not going to make up for
 it by increasing the volume of sales, or even by mooching sales from
 Rhapsody.
In the case of selling a service or an electronic product, the costs
don't scale up directly with the volume of sales. For example, if you
are selling software, the engineering costs stay relatively the same
regardless of whether you sell a thousand copies or a million. It's
quite possible that Napster could become more profitable just by
increasing the number of subscribers to reach a critical mass, even if
the average revenue per subscriber drops.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread mortslim

From what I have read about the record industry's demands for royalties,
it is based upon the number of times a song is played.  The more times
an internet radio station plays a song, the more money has to be paid to
the royalty collectors (riaa, bmi, soundscan, etc.).  I understand there
are complex formulas that are still evolving based upon number of
listeners, number of channels and total revenue, however song plays
continues to be part of this forumula.

Thus Napster's costs are variable, not fixed.  The more music
Napster plays, the more it has to pay to the royalty collectors. 
(Motorcycle legend Jesse James, who started his career being a collector
for Rick Rubin, co-head of Columbia Records, has a tatoo on the palm of
his hands with the script Pay Up Sucka).

Thus it is hard to believe that Napster can still make money by
lowering the price of its subscriptions, if it is indeed below its
costs.  Since Best Buy owns Napster, maybe Best Buy just looks at
Napster as a loss-leading marketing tool to (eventually) drive traffic
to its digital music sales.  I believe this is what Walmart is doing
with its own music sales.  

Since Rhapsody is not owned by any conglomerate (although it is its own
mini-conglomerate with its venture with MTV), maybe this is indeed bad
news for Rhapsody.  I guess I just feel sorry for Rhapsody because it
took the risk to pioneer this type of subscription format and now maybe
it is threatened if indeed it can't meet this new challenge from
Napster.

If it is Rhapsody that eventually goes, then Napster may have a
monopoly.  Not good for the consumer if prices later rise.  And as
mentioned earlier, not good for Logitech, to the extent it depends on
its own stake in its premium services.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread TiredLegs

mortslim;425463 Wrote: 
 Napster's costs are variable, not fixed.  The more music Napster
 plays, the more it has to pay to the royalty collectors.Napster's royalty 
 costs may be variable with the number of tunes played,
but: a) the company has many operating costs associated with it that are
not directly variable; and b) the variability of royalties is based on
the number of songs played, NOT the number of subscribers. Newer
subscribers might be less frequent users than the existing subscribers,
so even if total operating costs do go up, revenues and operating margin
could both improve as well.

This move by Napster/Best Buy is a classic test of price elasticity.
The downside risk is not because of increased royalty payments, it's
that the number of new subscribers might not be enough to make up for
the lower subscription fees.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread mortslim

The downside risk is not because of increased royalty payments, it's that the 
number of new subscribers might not be enough to make up for the lower 
subscription fees.[/QUOTE Wrote: 
 
 
 My opinion is that Rhapsody is going to face two risks going forward:
 
 1.  My understanding of the formula as to how the record industry is
 demanding royalty payments is that royalties will go UP as Napster
 increases its subscriber base; and,
 
 2.  As subscriptions increase, Napster won't be able to keep up with
 demand resulting in poor service.  Just look at ATT and its iPhone. 
 Its network in general can't support the demand for 3g service from this
 phone.  I see Napster facing stress on its servers causing an inability
 to deliver.  And if it goes to a cloud service, it will have to pay
 increasing fees to the cloud provider.  I really see this as a
 black-hole for Best Buy, just like youtube has become a cash-burner for
 Google.
 
 Google has been trying for quite awhile now to make youtube
 self-sustaining however it has yet to create a viable model.  Best Buy
 doesn't have the resources of Google and if Best Buy sees that Napster
 is dragging it down with no hope of a turnaround, it will cut it loose. 
 The concern is that along the way, Rhapsody will burn out first, leaving
 no subscription service featuring on-demand songs, albums and artists.
 
 If Napster succeeds, then great.  I believe in capitalism.  However I
 just have this dread that in the long-run this new model from Napster
 may hurt the whole subscription model for this type of service, leaving
 us with no Napster, no Rhapsody and nothing to take their place.  I
 don't find the playlists offered by Pandora, et al to be an equal
 substitute for the on-demand experience I now get from Rhapsody (and I
 assume from Napster too).


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread autopilot

Well the market can't be that terrible. Other companies seem to be
jumping in now, including start-up's Spotify, Nokia's new 'come with
music' service and a new Napster style subscription service from
Microsoft recently. There has also been rumours of Apple doing the same
for a while too. I personally think the subscription model has just been
slow to take off, but i do think it will ultimately work - it's just a
mater of who will be left when it does. So maybe this a canny move by
Napster to head of the increasing competition that starting to spring up
now. Thats assuming this -is- a price war, we dont know what Napster's
finances are like or what their long term game plan is - don't forget
this is only for streaming - the ability to transfer music to off-line
mobile devices does not seem to be effected by this announcement -
that's where the money must be. They could lose money (and we are making
a lot of assumptions here) on streaming revenue, but draw more customers
to the downloads side. It might just be strategic change, rather than a
price war or kamikaze attempt at rescuing some market share. I'm
personally still quite positive about the subscription model - most
people i speak to really love the idea, but too many people own iPods.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread Goodsounds

My view is that internet music subscription services may be facing a
situation not unlike the market for sat phones, sat radio, etc. These
markets all have small cores of enthusiastic users who will pay whatever
to get the service. But the business model ain't there because the
market is too small. The barrier to growth isn't the price, but rather
the limited attraction of the service that results in a too-limited
market opportunity.

With all the alternatives available, I think the Napsters of the world
are finding that it's hard to charge for something that most people find
is equivalent to what can be obtained for free. Whether it is equivalent
or not is not the issue.

My prediction is that most of the current providers will be gone in a
few years. Ironically, there are some similarities between music
(whether sold or streamed) and the now-struggling print media. In both
cases, people thought the Internet would provide opportunities for new
growth and revenue forms.  It turns out instead to be an agent that
breaks the historical business model altogether.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread mortslim

Well I just hope that we're not headed back to AM quality top 40 where
every station is playing the same playlist.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread autopilot

Goodsounds;425525 Wrote: 
 My view is that internet music subscription services may be facing a
 situation not unlike the market for sat phones, sat radio, etc. These
 markets all have small cores of enthusiastic users who will pay whatever
 to get the service. But the business model ain't there because the
 market is too small. The barrier to growth isn't the price, but rather
 the limited attraction of the service that results in a too-limited
 market opportunity.

I disagree, although not entirely. I think we are writing this off
before its had chance to take off, which i think it will (and is
beginning to, with all the new providers coming on board now in the last
few months - are all these companies crazy?). All successful technology
products start off with a small group of enthusiasts. The barrier has
not been limited interest per-say, but heal dragging of the music
industry and Apple's business methods, but i think these things are
finally changing now. If the iPod supported unlimited music rental for a
small monthly fee it would be an overnight success IMO. But people are
switching on now and joe public is more tech savvy than ever before,
it's just going to take a bit longer in this climate. We could have been
having this exact same conversation about MP3 player 8 years ago. Thats
not to say Napster wont go bust in the meantime, but we are making a
hell of a lot of assumptions here!


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-21 Thread Goodsounds

autopilot;425540 Wrote: 
 ..are all these companies crazy?.

Maybe yes, maybe no.

That happened once before in my lifetime, on a much much greater scale.
During the dot com bubble it seemed like all the new ventures  (and the
people working and investing in them) were crazy. Turned out, 99+ % of
them were indeed chasing ghosts and shadows. 

As you say, time will tell.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-20 Thread simbo

According to The Register's 'article'
(http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/19/napster_five_bucks_per_month_service/)
on this new price structure, the big downside is that the streaming
music is available only on a PC or laptop. I'm guessing this is just
ignorance on the part of The Register and that 5$ subscribers can still
access via SB - but can anyone confirm?


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-20 Thread byKnight

simbo;424998 Wrote: 
 According to The Register's 'article'
 (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/19/napster_five_bucks_per_month_service/)
 on this new price structure, the big downside is that the streaming
 music is available only on a PC or laptop. I'm guessing this is just
 ignorance on the part of The Register and that 5$ subscribers can still
 access via SB - but can anyone confirm?

Yes. I signed up last night. After upgrading my SqueezeCenter to from
7.3 to 7.3.2 and installing the Napster plug-in, I can listen to Napster
on my Squeezeboxen.


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Really, it was like that when I got here.

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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread simbo

I really hope they apply this to the UK. As great as I've been finding
the service (now it's available via SBs), I've been finding it difficult
to justify the £10pm.

As for Spotify, it'll be interesting to see what they do. As I
understand it the VC money is running out fast and they were hoping for
more premium users than they have.


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[slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread autopilot

http://www.engadget.com/2009/05/18/napster-relaunching-again-5-per-month-plus-five-to-download/

Includes 5 'keep forever' DRM-free downloads per month. Bargain. Not
sure what this means for UK customers though, can't see any info on the
UK site yet. Spotify now looks a whole lot less attractive to me.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread Siduhe

I'm not holding out that much hope of the reduced pricing in the UK. 
Napster UK seems to be run very much separately from Napster US.  

On a potentially related note, my daily Napster email today had a big
banner headline referencing a Logitech competition to win a Duet. 
However, it just links (for me) to the UK Logitech streaming devices
page - no sign of a competition.  Can't work out if Logitech simply
hasn't put the relevant page up yet, or whether the competition is US
only - anyone else received the email and know?


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread simbo

Siduhe;424301 Wrote: 
 On a potentially related note, my daily Napster email today had a big
 banner headline referencing a Logitech competition to win a Duet. 
 However, it just links (for me) to the UK Logitech streaming devices
 page - no sign of a competition.  Can't work out if Logitech simply
 hasn't put the relevant page up yet, or whether the competition is US
 only - anyone else received the email and know?
Same here... straight to the Wireless Music Players product list... no
competition mentioned.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread Siduhe

simbo;424298 Wrote: 
 As for Spotify, it'll be interesting to see what they do. As I
 understand it the VC money is running out fast and they were hoping for
 more premium users than they have.

I hear the same, and seems to be confirmed by this:

http://www.techdigest.tv/2009/05/spotify_coming_1.html

Interesting that they are looking to focus on things like music
recommendations - possibly in partnership with Last.fm or someone like
it...


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread EnochLight

I just posted the same story in the SqueezeNetwork section, albeit
linked to Gizmodo.

Anyone have any thoughts on how Napster compares to Rhapsody?  As a US
subscriber, I am seriously thinking about jumping ship.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread Siduhe

Thanks EL, your link seems to answer my/simbo's query - US residents
only right now.

napster Wrote: 
 The new Napster offering is now available for U.S. residents at
 www.napster.com.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread autopilot

EnochLight;424372 Wrote: 
 I just posted the same story in the SqueezeNetwork section, albeit
 linked to Gizmodo.
 
 Anyone have any thoughts on how Napster compares to Rhapsody?  As a US
 subscriber, I am seriously thinking about jumping ship.

Well you get a 37 day trial with Napster, so why not give it a test
drive?


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread mortslim

I am very concerned that you mention that the VC (venture capital) money
may be running out for Napster.  If that is the case, I see their new
gesture as a hail mary pass that could possibly have devastating
consequences for both itself and Rhapsody.  

If you sell a service below your costs (this is hypothetical as I have
no idea what Napster's costs are) then you are not going to make up for
it by increasing the volume of sales, or even by mooching sales from
Rhapsody.

All you are going to do is get customers used to a certain price point
and then when you later raise that price to a sustainable level, you
will most likely lose those customers again.  Not a very viable long
term strategy.

When you compare the prices (before price drop) of Napster and
Rhapsody, they are bargains for what they deliver: any album, any song,
any artist on demand.  I use my Rhapsody service ten times more than I
use my cable TV service, and yet I pay ten times more for cable TV.  So
if my math is correct, that means that internet radio is 100 times
cheaper than cable TV.

Many years ago I remember a neighbor of mine started a small shop to
rent roller skates for use at the beach.  When another skate store
lowered its prices, then my neighbor lowered his prices even more.  This
spiraled out of control to the point that it put both stores out of
business.

If Napster's strategy is to try to put Rhapsody out of business, then
this may be an anti-trust issue.

I encourage healthy competition, not predatory pricing.

Of course all of this is a result of the short-sightedness of the
record companies who are not pricing their own products in a healthy
manner.  Record companies are forcing this upon Napster and it may be
the ruin of all the companies.

Record companies don't get any royalties from terrestial radio although
there is talk in Congress about changing that.  If radio stations pay,
maybe there will less pressure for internet radio to pay more than their
fair share.

I hope Napster is playing fair with its new price structure but I doubt
it.  

I am going to stick with Rhapsody for the moment till I see where the
dust settles.  I am more than happy to pay value for value.  I
understand there is no such thing as a free lunch.  I understand that
Napster may be underpricing in a last desperate misguided attempt to
survive.

If that is the case, then rest in peace Napster.  I won't be party to
your shenanigans.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread simbo

mortslim;424436 Wrote: 
 I am very concerned that you mention that the VC (venture capital) money
 may be running out for Napster.
Sorry, I was referring to Spotify running out of VC money. There's a
'timely piece on The Register today'
(http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/18/spotify).

Your nice long post wasn't in vain however; Napster are having issues
of their own. They were bought last year by Best Buy, who seemed to be
more interested in the platform (read: mobile framework) rather than
the existing subscription base. Analysts think music subscriptions
services just aren't working, due to static revenues against a changing
environment. This may be Napster's attempt at starting a price war and,
as you say, it can only end in tears. To be honest I don't quite
understand why subscription services -wouldn't- work and be the most
popular approach - but maybe that's because they fit my needs the best.


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Re: [slim] Napster - now just $5 per month for streaming service

2009-05-18 Thread browellm

Wow, even if we get £/$ parity in the UK, it would be really really
worth it for £5.


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