Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
I found the paper to be quite interesting, because it models community-level outcomes of different dispersal rates and possible competitive interactions, mainly based on present/future occupied space in the thermal range and thermal optima of the species in the model. The main findings of the paper are that climate change will strongly affect communities where species have narrow niches, low mean dispersal rates, and large interspecific differences in dispersal. It estimates variations in alpha, beta and gamma diversity as species with different thermal ranges and optima are assigned different dispersal rates, and as a consequence encounter (or lose, or increase) interactions with novel (or non-novel) species. I.e., variation in dispersal rates determined contractions and expansions in distribution, and those in turn determined what interactions occurred and which were lost due to climate change (measured in temperature increase). Rates of extinctions were calculated a! s a consequence of those predicted interactions under modeled conditions. Summary statements by science journalists usually don't give a comprehensive view of a paper, rather choosing sensationalist or misguiding titles - much to everyone's disadvantage! Cheers, AC Astrid Caldas, Ph.D. Climate Change and Wildlife Science Fellow Defenders of Wildlife 1130 17th Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20036-4604 Tel: 202-772-0229 |Fax: 202-682-1331 acal...@defenders.org | www.defenders.org http://experts.defendersblog.org/author/acaldas -Original Message- From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news [mailto:ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Martin Meiss Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 4:54 PM To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions I have not looked at the original model or report, but the summary statements that were included in the initial posting are troublesome, to whit: ...Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't... and ...Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats The first statement seems to be saying that survivor species have an competitive advantage over extinct species. It's hard to say quite what that means The second statement seems pretty obvious, though I guess there's no harm in modeling it. Additionally, I find the supposedly clarifying metaphor of a train, all of whose cars travel at different speeds, rather unenlightening. Well, they are only claiming that their model is a first step, so perhaps these lapses can be forgiven. Martin M. Meiss 2012/1/6 David L. McNeely mcnee...@cox.net Christopher Heckscher checksc...@desu.edu wrote: This underscores the critical need for baseline inventory of multiple taxonomic groups in all parts of the world - not just tropical or remote regions. Even in relatively well studied regions of North America like the northeast we generally have a poor understanding of rare species' distributions. Without a basic baseline we cannot expect to accurately predict how sensitive species will react to climate change nor will we be able to assess the effects of climate change decades in the future. Yet funding for species inventory projects to assist in amassing this baseline data is next to impossible to obtain and is often shunned by armchair ecologists with little or no field experience as not real science. In fact, many grant programs specifically state they will not support survey or inventory work. This is in general a matter of priorities of the funding programs. We do have the big picture on what organisms are where, for the most part and in well studied regions. We have much less understanding of how they are integrated to function at higher levels of organization. The agencies often see surveys as redundant, even if they do fill in gaps or address specialized locales . The best way to get the funding for inventory work is to show that the inventory is essential to answering higher order questions, and to make those questions the main focus of the proposal. At least that is how I have seen it work, and what I have been told by funding organizations. Another situation occurs when The Nature Conservancy (or other NGO) is interested in a property, then they are interested in finding out what its community is. But they sometimes are interested for a particular reason, and will hope for volunteer inventories of other groups of organisms. David McNeely Christopher M. Heckscher, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Environmental Science Ecology Institutional Project Director, NOAA Environmental
Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
The paleo record suggests that the fate of species with small ranges is a bit more complex than I am understanding from this discussion. Sure, a small range size often implies a narrow niche and even a low dispersal (either ecologically or simply because hard geographic boundaries constrain the species into a small area). When climate changes, such species may find the rug pulled out from under their feet in the sense that their niche disappears and they have trouble moving fast enough to relocate it. However, there is some evidence that climate change results in the creation of small areas where niches e.g. forest niches may be better conserved. If it is indeed true that these appear today as centres of endemism, then many small-ranged species could have survived by being located in more climatically stable areas. Note what this implies for competition: when all of the high-disperal species in the region came pouring into the small areas during glaciations, they cannot have driven all the small-ranged incumbents extinct else there would not be high levels of endemism. In fact, in terms of evolutionary ecology, the locally-adapted incumbents may even be considered to have a competitive advantage over their high-dispersal invaders. That is certainly what seems to have happened in primates during the period of global warming about 10,000 years ago. Anyway, I find the idea of the model very interesting, I laud the authors for the effort and will be writing to ask for a copy (I am yet another of those ecologists who do not enjoy the usual resources of publicly-funded science, to reflect a previous thread). Anthony Waldron Date: Mon, 9 Jan 2012 14:24:33 + From: acal...@defenders.org Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU I found the paper to be quite interesting, because it models community-level outcomes of different dispersal rates and possible competitive interactions, mainly based on present/future occupied space in the thermal range and thermal optima of the species in the model. The main findings of the paper are that climate change will strongly affect communities where species have narrow niches, low mean dispersal rates, and large interspecific differences in dispersal. It estimates variations in alpha, beta and gamma diversity as species with different thermal ranges and optima are assigned different dispersal rates, and as a consequence encounter (or lose, or increase) interactions with novel (or non-novel) species. I.e., variation in dispersal rates determined contractions and expansions in distribution, and those in turn determined what interactions occurred and which were lost due to climate change (measured in temperature increase). Rates of extinctions were calculated a! s a consequence of those predicted interactions under modeled conditions. Summary statements by science journalists usually don't give a comprehensive view of a paper, rather choosing sensationalist or misguiding titles - much to everyone's disadvantage! Cheers, AC Astrid Caldas, Ph.D. Climate Change and Wildlife Science Fellow Defenders of Wildlife 1130 17th Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20036-4604 Tel: 202-772-0229 |Fax: 202-682-1331 acal...@defenders.org | www.defenders.org http://experts.defendersblog.org/author/acaldas -Original Message- From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news [mailto:ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Martin Meiss Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 4:54 PM To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions I have not looked at the original model or report, but the summary statements that were included in the initial posting are troublesome, to whit: ...Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't... and ...Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats The first statement seems to be saying that survivor species have an competitive advantage over extinct species. It's hard to say quite what that means The second statement seems pretty obvious, though I guess there's no harm in modeling it. Additionally, I find the supposedly clarifying metaphor of a train, all of whose cars travel at different speeds, rather unenlightening. Well, they are only claiming that their model is a first step, so perhaps these lapses can be forgiven. Martin M. Meiss 2012/1/6 David L. McNeely mcnee...@cox.net Christopher Heckscher checksc...@desu.edu wrote: This underscores
Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
This underscores the critical need for baseline inventory of multiple taxonomic groups in all parts of the world - not just tropical or remote regions. Even in relatively well studied regions of North America like the northeast we generally have a poor understanding of rare species' distributions. Without a basic baseline we cannot expect to accurately predict how sensitive species will react to climate change nor will we be able to assess the effects of climate change decades in the future. Yet funding for species inventory projects to assist in amassing this baseline data is next to impossible to obtain and is often shunned by armchair ecologists with little or no field experience as not real science. In fact, many grant programs specifically state they will not support survey or inventory work. Christopher M. Heckscher, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Environmental Science Ecology Institutional Project Director, NOAA Environmental Cooperative Science Center Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Delaware State University 1200 N. DuPont Highway Dover, DE 19901 From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news [ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Allen Sa;lzberg [asalzb...@herpdigest.org] Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 9:09 AM To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Subject: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions ScienceDaily (Jan. 3, 2012) — Predictions of the loss of animal and plant diversity around the world are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that because these climate models don't account for species competition and movement, they could grossly underestimate future extinctions. See Also: We have really sophisticated meteorological models for predicting climate change, says ecologist Mark Urban, the study's lead author. But in real life, animals move around, they compete, they parasitize each other, and they eat each other. The majority of our predictions don't include these important interactions. Plenty of experimental studies have shown that species are already moving in response to climate change, says Urban, assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut. For example, as temperatures rise over time, animals and plants that can't take the heat are moving to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler. But not all species can disperse fast enough to get to these more suitable places before they die off, Urban says. And if they do make it to these better habitats, they may be out-competed by the species that are already there -- or the ones that got there first. With coauthors Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of Washington, Urban created a mathematical model that takes into account the varying rates of migration and the different intensities of competition seen in ecological communities. The goal was to predict just how successful species within these communities would be at shifting to completely new habitats. Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't. Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats. When a species has a small range, it's more likely to be out-competed by others, Urban says. It's not about how fast you can move, but how fast you move relative to your competitors. Urban likens this scenario to a train traveling up a mountain on a track. If each boxcar -- representing a species -- travels at the same speed, they will likely all reach the top eventually. But in reality, each car can move at a different speed, creating a collision course. There's always a car in front of you and a car behind, explains Urban. When you introduce the ability to move at different speeds, they're constantly bumping into one another, even running each other over. It's a recipe for disaster. Importantly, the authors speculate that current predictions of biodiversity loss under climate change -- many of which are used by conservation organizations and governments -- could be vastly underestimating species extinctions. Tropical communities, for example, which often have many species living in small areas, could be among the hardest hit by climate change. Urban says this is a first step toward making climate change predictions of biodiversity more sophisticated. This is a first step -- to include in our models things that we know are true, like competition and dispersal, says Urban. Knowing these things, can we predict which species might be most at risk? Urban's paper was published in the Jan. 4 online
Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
Christopher Heckscher checksc...@desu.edu wrote: This underscores the critical need for baseline inventory of multiple taxonomic groups in all parts of the world - not just tropical or remote regions. Even in relatively well studied regions of North America like the northeast we generally have a poor understanding of rare species' distributions. Without a basic baseline we cannot expect to accurately predict how sensitive species will react to climate change nor will we be able to assess the effects of climate change decades in the future. Yet funding for species inventory projects to assist in amassing this baseline data is next to impossible to obtain and is often shunned by armchair ecologists with little or no field experience as not real science. In fact, many grant programs specifically state they will not support survey or inventory work. This is in general a matter of priorities of the funding programs. We do have the big picture on what organisms are where, for the most part and in well studied regions. We have much less understanding of how they are integrated to function at higher levels of organization. The agencies often see surveys as redundant, even if they do fill in gaps or address specialized locales . The best way to get the funding for inventory work is to show that the inventory is essential to answering higher order questions, and to make those questions the main focus of the proposal. At least that is how I have seen it work, and what I have been told by funding organizations. Another situation occurs when The Nature Conservancy (or other NGO) is interested in a property, then they are interested in finding out what its community is. But they sometimes are interested for a particular reason, and will hope for volunteer inventories of other groups of organisms. David McNeely Christopher M. Heckscher, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Environmental Science Ecology Institutional Project Director, NOAA Environmental Cooperative Science Center Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Delaware State University 1200 N. DuPont Highway Dover, DE 19901 From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news [ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Allen Sa;lzberg [asalzb...@herpdigest.org] Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 9:09 AM To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Subject: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions ScienceDaily (Jan. 3, 2012) — Predictions of the loss of animal and plant diversity around the world are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that because these climate models don't account for species competition and movement, they could grossly underestimate future extinctions. See Also: We have really sophisticated meteorological models for predicting climate change, says ecologist Mark Urban, the study's lead author. But in real life, animals move around, they compete, they parasitize each other, and they eat each other. The majority of our predictions don't include these important interactions. Plenty of experimental studies have shown that species are already moving in response to climate change, says Urban, assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut. For example, as temperatures rise over time, animals and plants that can't take the heat are moving to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler. But not all species can disperse fast enough to get to these more suitable places before they die off, Urban says. And if they do make it to these better habitats, they may be out-competed by the species that are already there -- or the ones that got there first. With coauthors Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of Washington, Urban created a mathematical model that takes into account the varying rates of migration and the different intensities of competition seen in ecological communities. The goal was to predict just how successful species within these communities would be at shifting to completely new habitats. Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't. Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats. When a species has a small range, it's more likely to be out-competed by others, Urban says. It's not about how fast you can move, but how fast you move relative to your competitors. Urban likens this scenario to a train traveling up a mountain on a track. If each boxcar -- representing a species
Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
I have not looked at the original model or report, but the summary statements that were included in the initial posting are troublesome, to whit: ...Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't... and ...Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats The first statement seems to be saying that survivor species have an competitive advantage over extinct species. It's hard to say quite what that means The second statement seems pretty obvious, though I guess there's no harm in modeling it. Additionally, I find the supposedly clarifying metaphor of a train, all of whose cars travel at different speeds, rather unenlightening. Well, they are only claiming that their model is a first step, so perhaps these lapses can be forgiven. Martin M. Meiss 2012/1/6 David L. McNeely mcnee...@cox.net Christopher Heckscher checksc...@desu.edu wrote: This underscores the critical need for baseline inventory of multiple taxonomic groups in all parts of the world - not just tropical or remote regions. Even in relatively well studied regions of North America like the northeast we generally have a poor understanding of rare species' distributions. Without a basic baseline we cannot expect to accurately predict how sensitive species will react to climate change nor will we be able to assess the effects of climate change decades in the future. Yet funding for species inventory projects to assist in amassing this baseline data is next to impossible to obtain and is often shunned by armchair ecologists with little or no field experience as not real science. In fact, many grant programs specifically state they will not support survey or inventory work. This is in general a matter of priorities of the funding programs. We do have the big picture on what organisms are where, for the most part and in well studied regions. We have much less understanding of how they are integrated to function at higher levels of organization. The agencies often see surveys as redundant, even if they do fill in gaps or address specialized locales . The best way to get the funding for inventory work is to show that the inventory is essential to answering higher order questions, and to make those questions the main focus of the proposal. At least that is how I have seen it work, and what I have been told by funding organizations. Another situation occurs when The Nature Conservancy (or other NGO) is interested in a property, then they are interested in finding out what its community is. But they sometimes are interested for a particular reason, and will hope for volunteer inventories of other groups of organisms. David McNeely Christopher M. Heckscher, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Environmental Science Ecology Institutional Project Director, NOAA Environmental Cooperative Science Center Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Delaware State University 1200 N. DuPont Highway Dover, DE 19901 From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news [ ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Allen Sa;lzberg [ asalzb...@herpdigest.org] Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 9:09 AM To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Subject: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions ScienceDaily (Jan. 3, 2012) — Predictions of the loss of animal and plant diversity around the world are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that because these climate models don't account for species competition and movement, they could grossly underestimate future extinctions. See Also: We have really sophisticated meteorological models for predicting climate change, says ecologist Mark Urban, the study's lead author. But in real life, animals move around, they compete, they parasitize each other, and they eat each other. The majority of our predictions don't include these important interactions. Plenty of experimental studies have shown that species are already moving in response to climate change, says Urban, assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut. For example, as temperatures rise over time, animals and plants that can't take the heat are moving to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler. But not all species can disperse fast enough to get to these more suitable places before they die off, Urban says. And if they do make it to these better habitats, they may be out-competed by the species that are already there -- or the ones that got
Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions
Ecolog and Heckscher: Yes, it is a shame that baseline data of all kinds, so essential to any higher-order understanding of ecological processes, is shunned by armchair (and office-chair) ecologists for any number of reasons, but there is a yet more important baseline that goes yet more completely ignored. In order to truly understand the relationship of organisms to their habitats and their capacity to shift with habitat changes, it is essential to know the requirements for each organism and the habitat/environmental factors which limit it at various stages of its life-cycle. Try to get a grant for that! WT - Original Message - From: Christopher Heckscher checksc...@desu.edu To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 7:00 AM Subject: Re: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions This underscores the critical need for baseline inventory of multiple taxonomic groups in all parts of the world - not just tropical or remote regions. Even in relatively well studied regions of North America like the northeast we generally have a poor understanding of rare species' distributions. Without a basic baseline we cannot expect to accurately predict how sensitive species will react to climate change nor will we be able to assess the effects of climate change decades in the future. Yet funding for species inventory projects to assist in amassing this baseline data is next to impossible to obtain and is often shunned by armchair ecologists with little or no field experience as not real science. In fact, many grant programs specifically state they will not support survey or inventory work. Christopher M. Heckscher, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Environmental Science Ecology Institutional Project Director, NOAA Environmental Cooperative Science Center Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Delaware State University 1200 N. DuPont Highway Dover, DE 19901 From: Ecological Society of America: grants, jobs, news [ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU] On Behalf Of Allen Sa;lzberg [asalzb...@herpdigest.org] Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 9:09 AM To: ECOLOG-L@LISTSERV.UMD.EDU Subject: [ECOLOG-L] Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions Climate Change Models May Vasty Underestimate Extinctions ScienceDaily (Jan. 3, 2012) — Predictions of the loss of animal and plant diversity around the world are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that because these climate models don't account for species competition and movement, they could grossly underestimate future extinctions. See Also: We have really sophisticated meteorological models for predicting climate change, says ecologist Mark Urban, the study's lead author. But in real life, animals move around, they compete, they parasitize each other, and they eat each other. The majority of our predictions don't include these important interactions. Plenty of experimental studies have shown that species are already moving in response to climate change, says Urban, assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut. For example, as temperatures rise over time, animals and plants that can't take the heat are moving to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler. But not all species can disperse fast enough to get to these more suitable places before they die off, Urban says. And if they do make it to these better habitats, they may be out-competed by the species that are already there -- or the ones that got there first. With coauthors Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of Washington, Urban created a mathematical model that takes into account the varying rates of migration and the different intensities of competition seen in ecological communities. The goal was to predict just how successful species within these communities would be at shifting to completely new habitats. Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't. Animals with small geographic ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats. When a species has a small range, it's more likely to be out-competed by others, Urban says. It's not about how fast you can move, but how fast you move relative to your competitors. Urban likens this scenario to a train traveling up a mountain on a track. If each boxcar -- representing a species -- travels at the same speed, they will likely all reach the top eventually. But in reality, each car can move at a different speed, creating a collision course. There's always a car in front of you and a car behind, explains Urban. When you introduce
