Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
Folks - Lets close the thread. We're well past the single topic posting limit in one day. 73, Eric mod-erator /elecraft.com/ On 10/9/2018 3:10 PM, David Gilbert wrote: I have very little doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be pretty weak. The long term trend has been pretty obvious in general. However, it seems erroneous that they would predict a delay in the start when the first (albeit weak) sunspot of Cycle 25 (opposite polarity) has just recently been spotted. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/12/it-appears-solar-cycle-25-has-begun-solar-cyle-24-one-of-the-shortest-and-weakest-ever/ http://www.stce.be/node/359 __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
I have very little doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be pretty weak. The long term trend has been pretty obvious in general. However, it seems erroneous that they would predict a delay in the start when the first (albeit weak) sunspot of Cycle 25 (opposite polarity) has just recently been spotted. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/12/it-appears-solar-cycle-25-has-begun-solar-cyle-24-one-of-the-shortest-and-weakest-ever/ http://www.stce.be/node/359 And I've seen no scientific analysis at all that says there won't be some sort of maximum at all. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center even expects a solar maximum roughly the same as for Cycle 24. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf Who knows what the actual story will be (I certainly don't), but I'm going to place a CQ article fairly far down my list of credible sources. 73, Dave AB7E On 10/9/2018 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote: For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8. I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article. Ted, KN1CBR __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to xda...@cis-broadband.com __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
I'd pay more attention to predictions based upon theoretical considerations. Those based upon historical data patterns, statistical interpretation, curve fitting, etc are about as useful as stock market or global climate predictions. Someone can always take a bunch of historical data and come up with a clever scheme to accurately account for past events, but when it comes to predicting the future it falls to pieces. I'll be doing CW in any case. That's my prediction. 73, Drew AF2Z On 10/09/18 13:37, Dauer, Edward wrote: For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8. I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article. Ted, KN1CBR __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to pu...@af2z.net __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
One day while [Chicken Little] is walking an acorn falls from a tree, and hits the top of her little head. "My, oh, my, the sky is falling. I must run and tell the lion about it," - says Chicken Little and she begins to run. She runs and runs and runs and runs. 73, Kent K9ZTV On 10/9/2018 12:37 PM, someone wrote: For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
If any of Jim Kennedy's (K6MIO/KH6) talks about solar predictions are available online, they are really fantastic. He's an authority on the subject. 73 Josh W6XU Sent from my mobile device > On Oct 9, 2018, at 10:45 AM, John Stengrevics > wrote: > > These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha > Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed > and will begin early 2019. > > In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies > & predictions and found that they differed by 115%. > > In fact, nobody really knows. > > John > WA1EAZ __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
That is precisely why I posted what I did. People take somebody’s forecast and accept it. Despite the progress made in understanding sunspot cycles, prediction is a very uncertain undertaking. Take any prediction with a huge block of salt. John WA1EAZ > On Oct 9, 2018, at 3:14 PM, Dave Cole (NK7Z) wrote: > > Ted, > Thanks for sharing that info... Bad as it seems... Hopefully it turns out > to be not what happens... > > 73s and thanks, > Dave (NK7Z/NNR0DC) > https://www.nk7z.net > ARRL Technical Specialist > ARRL Volunteer Examiner > ARRL OOC for Oregon > > On 10/9/18 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote: >> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very >> much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming >> sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported >> studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and >> will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could >> be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d >> better gear up for FT8. >> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full >> implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to >> the article. >> Ted, KN1CBR >> __ >> Elecraft mailing list >> Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft >> Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm >> Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net >> This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net >> Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html >> Message delivered to d...@nk7z.net > __ > Elecraft mailing list > Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft > Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm > Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net > > This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net > Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html > Message delivered to jstengrev...@comcast.net __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
Ted, Thanks for sharing that info... Bad as it seems... Hopefully it turns out to be not what happens... 73s and thanks, Dave (NK7Z/NNR0DC) https://www.nk7z.net ARRL Technical Specialist ARRL Volunteer Examiner ARRL OOC for Oregon On 10/9/18 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote: For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8. I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article. Ted, KN1CBR __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to d...@nk7z.net __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
Ummm ... "completely uncertain" is not true as is "nobody really knows." A great deal of information and data on solar dynamics has been collected and analyzed in recent years which shed a lot of light [no pun intended] on the various solar cycles and processes, and a great deal *is* known and understood, just not everything. The probability of a reprise of the late 50's Cycle 19 for Cycle 25 is known to be very low. The probability of a very weak Cycle 25 is much higher. Meanwhile, as N6KR points out, my radio still works and I still make QSO's, some with stations very far away. I too think the article in CQ is very interesting, I read it twice. 73, Fred ["Skip"] K6DGW Sparks NV DM09dn Washoe County On 10/9/2018 10:45 AM, John Stengrevics wrote: These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019. In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%. In fact, nobody really knows. John WA1EAZ __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
Meanwhile, many people are working DX in all modes day and night...go figure :) My weapon of choice is a KX2, hand-held, running 10 watts to a 3-band, 4-foot-long whip. Despite the obvious compromises, I never fail to make some worldwide Qs on hiking trips -- though it is certainly easier when those band openings come along. Wayne N6KR > On Oct 9, 2018, at 10:45 AM, John Stengrevics > wrote: > > These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha > Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed > and will begin early 2019. > > In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies > & predictions and found that they differed by 115%. > > In fact, nobody really knows. > > John > WA1EAZ > >> On Oct 9, 2018, at 1:37 PM, Dauer, Edward wrote: >> >> For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very >> much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming >> sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported >> studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and >> will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could >> be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d >> better gear up for FT8. >> >> I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full >> implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to >> the article. >> >> Ted, KN1CBR __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
As I noted, I have no opinion on the matter. An observation attributed to everyone from Niels Bohr to Yogi Berra: It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Ted, KN1CBR On 10/9/18, 11:45 AM, "John Stengrevics" wrote: These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019. In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%. In fact, nobody really knows. John WA1EAZ > On Oct 9, 2018, at 1:37 PM, Dauer, Edward wrote: > > For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8. > > I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article. > > Ted, KN1CBR > > __ > Elecraft mailing list > Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft > Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm > Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net > > This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net > Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html > Message delivered to jstengrev...@comcast.net __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
Re: [Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
These predictions are completely uncertain. Recent info presented by Tamitha Skov (space weather scientist) suggests the next cycle will not be delayed and will begin early 2019. In a paper presented at Central States VHF, Jim Kennedy reviewed many studies & predictions and found that they differed by 115%. In fact, nobody really knows. John WA1EAZ > On Oct 9, 2018, at 1:37 PM, Dauer, Edward wrote: > > For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very > much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming > sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported > studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and > will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could > be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d > better gear up for FT8. > > I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full > implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the > article. > > Ted, KN1CBR > > __ > Elecraft mailing list > Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft > Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm > Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net > > This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net > Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html > Message delivered to jstengrev...@comcast.net __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
[Elecraft] OT -- Sunspot Cycle 25
For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ . . . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up for FT8. I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the article. Ted, KN1CBR __ Elecraft mailing list Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/elecraft Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmfaq.htm Post: mailto:Elecraft@mailman.qth.net This list hosted by: http://www.qsl.net Please help support this email list: http://www.qsl.net/donate.html Message delivered to arch...@mail-archive.com
