Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread John Lussmyer via EV

Very few features are just optional software.
Mainly FSD.
They put the same computer in ALL the cars, and the same cameras in ALL 
the cars, as even their "AutoPilot" needs them, as well as "Sentry" mode 
security.
Most of the purchased variations are Wheels, Color, Range, Performance.  
(Which varies the size of the battery pack, and a couple variations on 
the motor.)
Keeping as many components the same in all vehicles reduces cost, 
reduces inventory parts, etc...   and make service easier.
And having a powerful computer lets them offer things like Sentry Mode, 
and hi-quality video games, etc...


On 10/17/2023 8:00 PM, Mr. Sharkey via EV wrote:

> They [Tesla] also offer very few variations

And the model seems to be that some (or many) of the options are built 
into every car manufactured, then turned on or off via software, 
allowing the cars to be much closer in build complexity, while still 
offering the buyer the full range of option possibilities.


It's a brilliant business model, but it would seem to favor buyers who 
select more options over those who only want basic amenities, as I 
doubt that the "turn on" fee for enabling FSD (or whatever), for 
instance, fully covers the cost of the hardware installed at 
manufacture. The difference is paid by the buyer whether the option(s) 
is enabled or not.


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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread Mr. Sharkey via EV

> They [Tesla] also offer very few variations

And the model seems to be that some (or many) of the options are 
built into every car manufactured, then turned on or off via 
software, allowing the cars to be much closer in build complexity, 
while still offering the buyer the full range of option possibilities.


It's a brilliant business model, but it would seem to favor buyers 
who select more options over those who only want basic amenities, as 
I doubt that the "turn on" fee for enabling FSD (or whatever), for 
instance, fully covers the cost of the hardware installed at 
manufacture. The difference is paid by the buyer whether the 
option(s) is enabled or not.


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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread John Lussmyer via EV
Lee, Tesla has been pulling lots of stuff in-house, specifically to 
avoid supply chain issues, AND because generic parts waste time, 
materials, and construction effort.  It's massively reduced the number 
of hoses, wires, brackets, and wasted space.
They also offer very few variations - specifically because of the added 
costs.


On 10/17/2023 1:48 PM, Lee Hart via EV wrote:

It's going to be incredibly difficult to find *real* numbers.

For one thing, carmakers outsource the production of a great many 
components and subassemblies. There will be no way to account for the 
labor the subcontractors put into these assemblies.


For another, all cars (EVs and ICEs alike) are getting increasingly 
more complex, and offered in a bewildering number of styles and 
options. The newer the vehicle, the more complicated it is. That's 
bound to increase labor per vehicle as well.


Yet another is that the legacy carmakers have had decades to optimize 
their automation for producing common parts for their ICEs to get 
their labor content down. This hasn't happened yet for EV parts.


If a carmaker chooses to make his own batteries (or tires, or wiring 
harnesses, etc.), his labor cost is going to go up. But he may do it 
anyway, because he can't find a reliable subcontractor, or because the 
total cost of doing it himself (parts and labor) is still cheaper than 
the low bidder's price.


Lee

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread Lee Hart via EV

It's going to be incredibly difficult to find *real* numbers.

For one thing, carmakers outsource the production of a great many 
components and subassemblies. There will be no way to account for the 
labor the subcontractors put into these assemblies.


For another, all cars (EVs and ICEs alike) are getting increasingly more 
complex, and offered in a bewildering number of styles and options. The 
newer the vehicle, the more complicated it is. That's bound to increase 
labor per vehicle as well.


Yet another is that the legacy carmakers have had decades to optimize 
their automation for producing common parts for their ICEs to get their 
labor content down. This hasn't happened yet for EV parts.


If a carmaker chooses to make his own batteries (or tires, or wiring 
harnesses, etc.), his labor cost is going to go up. But he may do it 
anyway, because he can't find a reliable subcontractor, or because the 
total cost of doing it himself (parts and labor) is still cheaper than 
the low bidder's price.


Lee
--
I am thankful to all of those who said "no" to me. It's because of them
that I did it myself. -- Albert Einstein
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread EV List Lackey via EV
On 17 Oct 2023 at 15:57, paul dove via EV wrote:

> We have some news of the efficiency of Tesla -vs- VW in terms of how many
> workers can make how many cars in Germany, according to a Reuters.com article.
> Let's see what the number say:

I could be wrong, but unless you've started referring to yourself as the 
royal we, this looks like copy and paste, rather than your own words. 

What's the source, please?  

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread paul dove via EV

Tesla Worker Efficiency

We have some news of the efficiency of Tesla -vs- VW in terms of how many 
workers can make how many cars in Germany, according to a Reuters.com article. 
Let's see what the number say:

In Germany:
Tesla will produce 500,000 cars with 12,000 workers
VW will produce 700,000 cars with 25,000 workers

Let's do some simple math.

Tesla will produce (500,000 / 12,000) or 41.66 cars per worker
VW will produce (700,000 / 25,000) or 28 cars per worker

In terms of efficiency, Tesla is about 33% more efficient in producing vehicles 
per worker (28 / 41.66).  




Tesla Worker Efficiency Has VW On the Ropes 

Tesla Worker Efficiency Has VW On the Ropes Torquenews.com
Sent from AT&T Yahoo Mail for iPhone


On Tuesday, October 17, 2023, 6:24 AM, EV List Lackey via EV 
 wrote:

On 17 Oct 2023 at 0:27, Michael Ross via EV wrote:

> I am not buying  these figures on unknown say so. Sounds like BS. Just
> whose EVs and whose batteries? Which models?

Here's the original article, with some discussion of methodology.

https://heatmap.news/electric-vehicles/evs-trump-uaw-jobs-evidence

> Anna Stefanopoulou, a professor of mechanical engineering at the
> University of Michigan, has been investigating three manufacturing
> sites that used to produce conventional cars and are now producing
> EVs: A Tesla factory in California that used to be a jointly-owned
> facility between GM and Toyota that produced Pontiacs and Corollas; a
> Rivian plant in Illinois that previously produced Mitsubishis; and the
> Orion Assembly plant in Michigan, where GM transitioned from producing
> Chevy Sonics and Buick Veranos to electric Chevy Bolts ... Each one is
> producing fewer vehicles per worker than they were before, meaning
> it´s taking more people per vehicle to produce electric cars. The
> California site, which has been producing EVs for the longest out of
> the three, showed the most dramatic change. At its peak, the GM/Toyota
> plant produced 80 vehicles per person per year. The Tesla plant
> averages 30. 
> 
> Stefanopoulou ... predicts that after a decade or so, as processes
> become more streamlined, the commonly-held belief that EV assembly
> requires less labor will turn out to be correct. However, she also said
> that if she were to consider battery cell production, as Cotterman did,
> EV production on the whole could require more people.  

That's just the central point and there are qualifications.  I suggest that 
you read the entire piece at the above link.

The Tesla vs GM/Toyota vehicle productivity hit really surprises me.  I 
thought that Tesla had gone all in for automation.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

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    Things I once thought were funny are scary now. I often feel 
    like a resident of Pompeii who has been asked for some 
    humorous comments on lava. 

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread Michael Ross via EV
I think the Model 3 has less automation than the higher end models. (This
could be dated info) I have always wondered how amortizing the automation
do-overs shows up in cost accounting. In more than one instance Tesla had
to back away from some automation and rethink.  Likewise with battery pack
design. Tesla has tried a lot of new ideas (aluminum body/chassis).

The legacy auto companies have advantages by not starting from scratch at
essential auto manufacturing, and being able to reverse engineer Teslas,
don't think they don't. We should not assume the engineers, managers and
worker bees at legacy plants are inferior to Tesla. They might be less good
at trying new stuff over and over, and better at the basics. I would guess
that legacy cars will have efficiency advantages for a long time. Financial
advantages, too.

I am biased, I have bought Tesla stock more due to the battery business
rather than car making. I never believed the legacy manufacturers would not
catch up pretty fast when they put their efforts into it. There is a reason
why decades passed before new car companies appeared. It is damned hard to
do.



On Tue, Oct 17, 2023 at 7:25 AM EV List Lackey via EV 
wrote:

> On 17 Oct 2023 at 0:27, Michael Ross via EV wrote:
>
> > I am not buying  these figures on unknown say so. Sounds like BS. Just
> > whose EVs and whose batteries? Which models?
>
> Here's the original article, with some discussion of methodology.
>
> https://heatmap.news/electric-vehicles/evs-trump-uaw-jobs-evidence
>
> > Anna Stefanopoulou, a professor of mechanical engineering at the
> > University of Michigan, has been investigating three manufacturing
> > sites that used to produce conventional cars and are now producing
> > EVs: A Tesla factory in California that used to be a jointly-owned
> > facility between GM and Toyota that produced Pontiacs and Corollas; a
> > Rivian plant in Illinois that previously produced Mitsubishis; and the
> > Orion Assembly plant in Michigan, where GM transitioned from producing
> > Chevy Sonics and Buick Veranos to electric Chevy Bolts ... Each one is
> > producing fewer vehicles per worker than they were before, meaning
> > it´s taking more people per vehicle to produce electric cars. The
> > California site, which has been producing EVs for the longest out of
> > the three, showed the most dramatic change. At its peak, the GM/Toyota
> > plant produced 80 vehicles per person per year. The Tesla plant
> > averages 30.
> >
> > Stefanopoulou ... predicts that after a decade or so, as processes
> > become more streamlined, the commonly-held belief that EV assembly
> > requires less labor will turn out to be correct. However, she also said
> > that if she were to consider battery cell production, as Cotterman did,
> > EV production on the whole could require more people.
>
> That's just the central point and there are qualifications.  I suggest
> that
> you read the entire piece at the above link.
>
> The Tesla vs GM/Toyota vehicle productivity hit really surprises me.  I
> thought that Tesla had gone all in for automation.
>
> David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey
>
> To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my
> offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt
>
> = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
>
>  Things I once thought were funny are scary now. I often feel
>  like a resident of Pompeii who has been asked for some
>  humorous comments on lava.
>
>-- Tom Lehrer
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>
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Wait - what? MORE labor hours?

2023-10-17 Thread EV List Lackey via EV
On 17 Oct 2023 at 0:27, Michael Ross via EV wrote:

> I am not buying  these figures on unknown say so. Sounds like BS. Just
> whose EVs and whose batteries? Which models?

Here's the original article, with some discussion of methodology.

https://heatmap.news/electric-vehicles/evs-trump-uaw-jobs-evidence

> Anna Stefanopoulou, a professor of mechanical engineering at the
> University of Michigan, has been investigating three manufacturing
> sites that used to produce conventional cars and are now producing
> EVs: A Tesla factory in California that used to be a jointly-owned
> facility between GM and Toyota that produced Pontiacs and Corollas; a
> Rivian plant in Illinois that previously produced Mitsubishis; and the
> Orion Assembly plant in Michigan, where GM transitioned from producing
> Chevy Sonics and Buick Veranos to electric Chevy Bolts ... Each one is
> producing fewer vehicles per worker than they were before, meaning
> it´s taking more people per vehicle to produce electric cars. The
> California site, which has been producing EVs for the longest out of
> the three, showed the most dramatic change. At its peak, the GM/Toyota
> plant produced 80 vehicles per person per year. The Tesla plant
> averages 30. 
> 
> Stefanopoulou ... predicts that after a decade or so, as processes
> become more streamlined, the commonly-held belief that EV assembly
> requires less labor will turn out to be correct. However, she also said
> that if she were to consider battery cell production, as Cotterman did,
> EV production on the whole could require more people.  

That's just the central point and there are qualifications.  I suggest that 
you read the entire piece at the above link.

The Tesla vs GM/Toyota vehicle productivity hit really surprises me.  I 
thought that Tesla had gone all in for automation.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 

 Things I once thought were funny are scary now. I often feel 
 like a resident of Pompeii who has been asked for some 
 humorous comments on lava. 

   -- Tom Lehrer
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 

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