[FairfieldLife] Re: Interesting Hagelin factoid - ME, large numbers, $$$

2006-01-09 Thread markmeredith2002
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 On Jan 9, 2006, at 10:20 AM, authfriend wrote:
 
  --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 
 
  On Jan 8, 2006, at 8:29 PM, sparaig wrote:
 
 
  The ME theory is a large numbers theory. The crime rate of
 
  Fairfield
 
  could be skewed by having a single pickpocket living among the
  sidhas. For that matter, the traffic accident rate during the
 
  Taste
 
  of Utopia course could go up because the town's adult population
 
  more
 
  than doubled (tripled) during that time. To accurately measure the
  predicted claims of the ME, you would need a much larger
 
  statistical
 
  sample population for them to effect than Fairfield, IA, like
  Washington, DC.
 
 
 
  Just another TB rationalization to avoid accepting the obvious.
 
 
  Not real familiar with statistical principles,
  are you?
 
 Trained in advanced statistics...does that count?
 
 The variables he mentioned could be accounted for--and the TMO is  
 certainly adept at number crunching and ambiguation.
 
 The fact that Crystal Meth is on the increase in the areas all around  
 FF might be harder to hide.
 
 Maybe attracting factory Hog Farms is actually what CCP's do? Like  
 mosquitoes to a light bulb?
 
 While the ME is an interesting hypothesis, that's all it really is at  
 this point. Since repetition of these studies seems rather unlikely,  
 it most likely will just remain fringe- or pseudo-science. But for  
 some people it will be hard to let go of these dreams of glory daze  
 and rising sunshine.

The purported math behind the ME has been clearly expressed 10,000
times - the square root of 1% of any given population.  That's not a
large number theory - it means it's easier to achieve the effect for
large populations that you would think because a square root is
involved.  When group program was established here it was always
stated that it would have the greatest effect here locally - it was
never stated that it would only have an effect nationally, and not any
effect locally, due to some large number theory.  So anyway, when did
hagelin or anyone say DC was a big enough sample but not fairfield (or
apparently any of the original 1% cities)? What exactly is the stated
minimize size? 

It's all irrelevant anyhoo ... the tmo moved away from standard ME
theory and into the miracle of pundits a long time ago, and is now
moving away from the miracle on pundits and into rebuilding the world
with east facing rectangles as the solution to all problems.  Just
listen to the jan 12 broadcasts and you'll see.

Whatever you think of ME as a theory, it's on the way out in the tmo
because the tmo raised a gadzillion dollars over the past 20 yrs and
still didn't spend a fraction of it to establish a ME group that could
have solved all the problems in the world according to ME theory. 
That's just raised too much doubt in people's minds for it to continue
being a bona fide fund-raising approach anymore.





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[FairfieldLife] Re: Interesting Hagelin factoid - ME, large numbers, $$$

2006-01-09 Thread sparaig
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, markmeredith2002 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  
  On Jan 9, 2006, at 10:20 AM, authfriend wrote:
  
   --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, Vaj [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
wrote:
  
  
  
   On Jan 8, 2006, at 8:29 PM, sparaig wrote:
  
  
   The ME theory is a large numbers theory. The crime rate of
  
   Fairfield
  
   could be skewed by having a single pickpocket living among the
   sidhas. For that matter, the traffic accident rate during the
  
   Taste
  
   of Utopia course could go up because the town's adult 
population
  
   more
  
   than doubled (tripled) during that time. To accurately 
measure the
   predicted claims of the ME, you would need a much larger
  
   statistical
  
   sample population for them to effect than Fairfield, IA, like
   Washington, DC.
  
  
  
   Just another TB rationalization to avoid accepting the obvious.
  
  
   Not real familiar with statistical principles,
   are you?
  
  Trained in advanced statistics...does that count?
  
  The variables he mentioned could be accounted for--and the TMO 
is  
  certainly adept at number crunching and ambiguation.
  
  The fact that Crystal Meth is on the increase in the areas all 
around  
  FF might be harder to hide.
  
  Maybe attracting factory Hog Farms is actually what CCP's do? 
Like  
  mosquitoes to a light bulb?
  
  While the ME is an interesting hypothesis, that's all it really 
is at  
  this point. Since repetition of these studies seems rather 
unlikely,  
  it most likely will just remain fringe- or pseudo-science. But 
for  
  some people it will be hard to let go of these dreams of glory 
daze  
  and rising sunshine.
 
 The purported math behind the ME has been clearly expressed 10,000
 times - the square root of 1% of any given population.  That's not a
 large number theory - it means it's easier to achieve the effect for
 large populations that you would think because a square root is
 involved.  When group program was established here it was always
 stated that it would have the greatest effect here locally - it was
 never stated that it would only have an effect nationally, and not 
any
 effect locally, due to some large number theory.  So anyway, when 
did
 hagelin or anyone say DC was a big enough sample but not fairfield 
(or
 apparently any of the original 1% cities)? What exactly is the 
stated
 minimize size? 
 

You're missing the point. While the ME might have the greatest effect 
locally, the effect might also be most easily swamped by local 
variations that overwhelm the slight effects that you might see from 
the ME. Let's consider the case of 1 person doing Yogic FLying. 
OBviously, Yogic Flying will have the greatest effect on that person, 
rather than on the people arround him. For the ME to work as you 
suggest, that 1 person should overwhelm the negativity of 10,000 
people since 1% of 10,000 is 100, and 1% of 100 is 1.

Of course, the TMO has NEVER claimed that one person alone doing 
Yogic Flying is going to have a measureable effect on 10,000 people, 
so your intuition is wrong.

 It's all irrelevant anyhoo ... the tmo moved away from standard ME
 theory and into the miracle of pundits a long time ago, and is now
 moving away from the miracle on pundits and into rebuilding the 
world
 with east facing rectangles as the solution to all problems.  Just
 listen to the jan 12 broadcasts and you'll see.

That might all be. That doesn't change any aspect of what was claimed 
for the ME and, as far as I know, is still being claimed for the ME.

 
 Whatever you think of ME as a theory, it's on the way out in the tmo
 because the tmo raised a gadzillion dollars over the past 20 yrs and
 still didn't spend a fraction of it to establish a ME group that 
could
 have solved all the problems in the world according to ME theory. 
 That's just raised too much doubt in people's minds for it to 
continue
 being a bona fide fund-raising approach anymore.


That might be also.






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[FairfieldLife] Re: Interesting Hagelin factoid - ME, large numbers, $$$

2006-01-09 Thread sparaig
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

[...]
 rather than on the people arround him. For the ME to work as you 
 suggest, that 1 person should overwhelm the negativity of 10,000 
 people since 1% of 10,000 is 100, and 1% of 100 is 1.
 

the SQUAREROOT of 10,000 is 100,and 1% of 100 is 1...


Sigh...





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[FairfieldLife] Re: Interesting Hagelin factoid - ME, large numbers, $$$

2006-01-09 Thread sparaig
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
wrote:
 
 [...]
  rather than on the people arround him. For the ME to work as you 
  suggest, that 1 person should overwhelm the negativity of 10,000 
  people since 1% of 10,000 is 100, and 1% of 100 is 1.
  
 
 the SQUAREROOT of 10,000 is 100,and 1% of 100 is 1...
 
 
 Sigh...


Double-sigh, 1% of 10,000 is 100, and the squareroot of 100 is 10...

Analysis still holds: 10 yogic flyers in a group having a measureable 
effect on the 10,000 has never been claimed by the TMO.

LIkewise, the single yogic flyer having a measureable effect on 100 
people around him has never been claimed either.

[1% of 100 is 1. The squareroot of 1 is 1]


It's a big-number theory as I have said. I believe they were talking 
in terms of 100 yogic fliers having a noticable effect on the 
surrounding population, which translates back into a minimum 
population of 1 million people as the smallest population  size that 
one might expect to find a reliably measureable ME for.





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[FairfieldLife] Re: Interesting Hagelin factoid - ME, large numbers, $$$

2006-01-09 Thread markmeredith2002
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 It's a big-number theory as I have said. I believe they were talking 
 in terms of 100 yogic fliers having a noticable effect on the 
 surrounding population, which translates back into a minimum 
 population of 1 million people as the smallest population  size that 
 one might expect to find a reliably measureable ME for.

Fairfield had over 10% of its population - over 1,000 sidhas - doing
group program for many many years.  According to the ME theory, that's
enough to influence 100 million, but even the immediate town of 10,000
and state of a few million were not influenced significantly.

Actually the economy of the town turned south after companies like
telegroup and globallink moved into new s-ved buildings and soon
collapsed.  





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[FairfieldLife] Re: Interesting Hagelin factoid - ME, large numbers, $$$

2006-01-09 Thread sparaig
--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, markmeredith2002 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 --- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, sparaig [EMAIL PROTECTED] 
wrote:
 
  
  It's a big-number theory as I have said. I believe they were 
talking 
  in terms of 100 yogic fliers having a noticable effect on the 
  surrounding population, which translates back into a minimum 
  population of 1 million people as the smallest population  size 
that 
  one might expect to find a reliably measureable ME for.
 
 Fairfield had over 10% of its population - over 1,000 sidhas - doing
 group program for many many years.  According to the ME theory, 
that's
 enough to influence 100 million, but even the immediate town of 
10,000
 and state of a few million were not influenced significantly.
 
 Actually the economy of the town turned south after companies like
 telegroup and globallink moved into new s-ved buildings and soon
 collapsed.


Bad timing for expansion (new facilities).






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