Re: [fonc] The end of technology has arrived
Someone during the decline of Commodore Inc. and Amiga. Amiga is a great computer, but Commodore is not innovating anymore. Everyone knows that IBM and it clownes can never catch up (with their sloppy graphics and sound) and Apple is not really an innovator (still playing with cassette tapes.) These are pretty much the only players I know in the game, so I'm convinced that the technology is doomed. We'll all use Amiga 1200s forever. (Sorry, couldn't resist) On Wed, Jul 24, 2013 at 3:18 PM, John Pratt jpra...@gmail.com wrote: In the first place, Steve was very conservative when it came to hardware and advances; relatively few things pushed the edge technologically, in terms of achieving some kind of science future. Three-dimensional displays exist, but no one ever explored that option. From 1999 onwards, the focus of Apple was to produce commerce, not advance the state of products overall. Most everything he did from 1997 to 2011 simply leveraged the work that had been done previously and repackaged it. Bitter failures at NeXT and massive success at Pixar led to the candy coating of Apple products, in which all progress underneath the covers ceased abruptly. But now Apple is unaware of this and they are still riding forward into a wall. They don't know that they are riding into a wall because they are just rehashing and rehashing things written in the 1980's and 1990's, which weren't, in the first place, as advanced as people envisioned them to be able to be in the 1950's even. Since Microsoft follows Apple in large part and SGI is basically gone, no one leads the world except Apple. So if Apple does not incorporate a technology, it will never become mainstream. No major competing operating systems exist anymore and no one is even thinking like that. And since Google is only splitting itself when it gets into hardware and not staying on track with web, it cannot really overcome this, either. This is really the end game, for all of technology. If Apple never improves itself in this regard, never thinks at a fundamental level, if it never examines the faults that Steve borrowed from PARC without examining the conceptual underpinnings, Apple will just decline, as is the case right now. Everything that was aspired in the 1990's is now a narrowly-defined reality: video exists in all formats and is available in any way possible. Audio and music are consumable in all ways. All information is basically transmittable as quickly as one really wants it given technology. Speed the computers up by 10x and it won't make much difference anymore. Stock analysts and news journalists can't see that the underpinnings of technology have now hit a wall. Go ahead and make a watch or whatever. Real observers know that technology is over; it is just in its last throes. Once you define a tablet in the form of an iPad, no one can do anything else. Now that a mobile phone is synonymous with a touch pad, no one can think of anything else. Mankind has boxed itself in and it is all over. ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc
Re: [fonc] The end of technology has arrived
Your pessimism does not seem justified. And I'm quite looking forward to the future of heads up displays and augmented reality. http://www.meta-view.com/ https://www.thalmic.com/myo/ http://awelonblue.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/programming-with-augmented-reality/ On Wed, Jul 24, 2013 at 3:18 PM, John Pratt jpra...@gmail.com wrote: In the first place, Steve was very conservative when it came to hardware and advances; relatively few things pushed the edge technologically, in terms of achieving some kind of science future. Three-dimensional displays exist, but no one ever explored that option. From 1999 onwards, the focus of Apple was to produce commerce, not advance the state of products overall. Most everything he did from 1997 to 2011 simply leveraged the work that had been done previously and repackaged it. Bitter failures at NeXT and massive success at Pixar led to the candy coating of Apple products, in which all progress underneath the covers ceased abruptly. But now Apple is unaware of this and they are still riding forward into a wall. They don't know that they are riding into a wall because they are just rehashing and rehashing things written in the 1980's and 1990's, which weren't, in the first place, as advanced as people envisioned them to be able to be in the 1950's even. Since Microsoft follows Apple in large part and SGI is basically gone, no one leads the world except Apple. So if Apple does not incorporate a technology, it will never become mainstream. No major competing operating systems exist anymore and no one is even thinking like that. And since Google is only splitting itself when it gets into hardware and not staying on track with web, it cannot really overcome this, either. This is really the end game, for all of technology. If Apple never improves itself in this regard, never thinks at a fundamental level, if it never examines the faults that Steve borrowed from PARC without examining the conceptual underpinnings, Apple will just decline, as is the case right now. Everything that was aspired in the 1990's is now a narrowly-defined reality: video exists in all formats and is available in any way possible. Audio and music are consumable in all ways. All information is basically transmittable as quickly as one really wants it given technology. Speed the computers up by 10x and it won't make much difference anymore. Stock analysts and news journalists can't see that the underpinnings of technology have now hit a wall. Go ahead and make a watch or whatever. Real observers know that technology is over; it is just in its last throes. Once you define a tablet in the form of an iPad, no one can do anything else. Now that a mobile phone is synonymous with a touch pad, no one can think of anything else. Mankind has boxed itself in and it is all over. ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc
Re: [fonc] The end of technology has arrived
Leap motion just came out. And Kinect before it. These open up a dimension, but probably not too different than other 3D devices. Let's what happens... On Jul 24, 2013 9:26 PM, John Pratt jpra...@gmail.com wrote: If you introduced the Dynabook today, would people use it? That's now the problem. They would have used it, probably, several years ago, but now they won't. The landscape itself is now reduced to a patch of grass. There is now a single way to do a certain thing and that thing is fixed. There is one way to do everything. So in a way, it isn't just that the technology won't advance further, but that the cognitive environment has narrowed to a pinpoint. On Jul 24, 2013, at 4:28 PM, Igor Stasenko wrote: Why so pessimistic? Your message reminds me numerous articles from the past, that tech hit the wall, and now humanity has to stop and think what to do next. The universe is full of yet undiscovered, and who knows how many days/years separates us from another great discovery. Yes it may be not in the field related to electronics or computing, nor related to the fate of Apple and today's flagships of technology. Who knows, maybe after a hundred years our descendants will consider our today's level of technology in computing as something ridiculously slow, ineffective, and resource-hungry. On 25 July 2013 00:18, John Pratt jpra...@gmail.com wrote: In the first place, Steve was very conservative when it came to hardware and advances; relatively few things pushed the edge technologically, in terms of achieving some kind of science future. Three-dimensional displays exist, but no one ever explored that option. From 1999 onwards, the focus of Apple was to produce commerce, not advance the state of products overall. Most everything he did from 1997 to 2011 simply leveraged the work that had been done previously and repackaged it. Bitter failures at NeXT and massive success at Pixar led to the candy coating of Apple products, in which all progress underneath the covers ceased abruptly. But now Apple is unaware of this and they are still riding forward into a wall. They don't know that they are riding into a wall because they are just rehashing and rehashing things written in the 1980's and 1990's, which weren't, in the first place, as advanced as people envisioned them to be able to be in the 1950's even. Since Microsoft follows Apple in large part and SGI is basically gone, no one leads the world except Apple. So if Apple does not incorporate a technology, it will never become mainstream. No major competing operating systems exist anymore and no one is even thinking like that. And since Google is only splitting itself when it gets into hardware and not staying on track with web, it cannot really overcome this, either. This is really the end game, for all of technology. If Apple never improves itself in this regard, never thinks at a fundamental level, if it never examines the faults that Steve borrowed from PARC without examining the conceptual underpinnings, Apple will just decline, as is the case right now. Everything that was aspired in the 1990's is now a narrowly-defined reality: video exists in all formats and is available in any way possible. Audio and music are consumable in all ways. All information is basically transmittable as quickly as one really wants it given technology. Speed the computers up by 10x and it won't make much difference anymore. Stock analysts and news journalists can't see that the underpinnings of technology have now hit a wall. Go ahead and make a watch or whatever. Real observers know that technology is over; it is just in its last throes. Once you define a tablet in the form of an iPad, no one can do anything else. Now that a mobile phone is synonymous with a touch pad, no one can think of anything else. Mankind has boxed itself in and it is all over. ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc -- Best regards, Igor Stasenko. ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc ___ fonc mailing list fonc@vpri.org http://vpri.org/mailman/listinfo/fonc
