Re: [Foundation-l] Iran plans to turn off Internet

2012-01-11 Thread Gregory Varnum
Perhaps if Iran makes this official publicly, or they actually do it, the 
Foundation, or maybe some volunteers, can respond via the blog?  At least that 
gets it into the discourse - but doesn't commit the Foundation itself to 
anything.

I'm optimistic it will be resolved first through political back channels - but 
you never know...



On Jan 11, 2012, at 12:08 AM, Jussi-Ville Heiskanen wrote:

 On Mon, Jan 9, 2012 at 3:57 AM, Mono mium monom...@gmail.com wrote:
 Unfortunately, the kind of political action editors wished to promote in
 situations like Italy or the USA wouldn't have the same effect in more
 restrictive countries like China or Iran.
 
 
 This is not accurate. People are inspired by actions in faraway places,
 and acheive remarkable things. A finnish master of a secret society was
 ambassador to France while also Benjamin Franklin wa there, and they
 had discourses on the possibility of Finnish independence (following the
 precepts of Continental US independence). Amusingly enough Franklin
 thought that Finnish independence was a pipe dream. But the secret
 society did achieve in putting in force the motions that do make Finland
 an independent motion. The point there is, that had there not been the
 US ideal of independence, the whole plot might have been lost, and
 there need never have been any [[Anjala conspiracy]].
 
 
 -- 
 --
 Jussi-Ville Heiskanen, ~ [[User:Cimon Avaro]]
 
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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran plans to turn off Internet

2012-01-10 Thread Jussi-Ville Heiskanen
On Mon, Jan 9, 2012 at 3:57 AM, Mono mium monom...@gmail.com wrote:
 Unfortunately, the kind of political action editors wished to promote in
 situations like Italy or the USA wouldn't have the same effect in more
 restrictive countries like China or Iran.


This is not accurate. People are inspired by actions in faraway places,
and acheive remarkable things. A finnish master of a secret society was
ambassador to France while also Benjamin Franklin wa there, and they
had discourses on the possibility of Finnish independence (following the
precepts of Continental US independence). Amusingly enough Franklin
thought that Finnish independence was a pipe dream. But the secret
society did achieve in putting in force the motions that do make Finland
an independent motion. The point there is, that had there not been the
US ideal of independence, the whole plot might have been lost, and
there need never have been any [[Anjala conspiracy]].


-- 
--
Jussi-Ville Heiskanen, ~ [[User:Cimon Avaro]]

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran plans to turn off Internet

2012-01-08 Thread Mono mium
Unfortunately, the kind of political action editors wished to promote in
situations like Italy or the USA wouldn't have the same effect in more
restrictive countries like China or Iran.

On Sun, Jan 8, 2012 at 10:31 AM, Gregory Varnum gregory.var...@gmail.comwrote:

 Given the conversations about Bosnia and SOPA, I felt this was worth
 mentioning.

 There are a number of stories online about the government limiting
 Internet access within Iran:

 http://mashable.com/2012/01/06/iran-intranet-tests/


 http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57354267-83/iran-squeezes-web-surfers-prepares-censored-national-intranet/


 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513604577142713916386248.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


 Please note that I'm not volunteering to help with any actions (sorry) and
 not (yet) necessarily advocating for or against action.  However, I felt it
 was worth mentioning topic given recent discussions and the obvious
 conflict this presents for Wikimedia's interest in accessing any parts of
 Iran.

 I also have it from a reliable source that their government is indeed
 planning on a total Internet shut off in two weeks.  I'm not comfortable
 sharing more on a public listserv, but if you have a logical reason for
 needing to know, email me off-list and I'll share more.  :)

 Based on how I learned this, I suspect bloggers and others will be
 reporting on this soon (if they aren't already).  Feel free to consider it
 wild speculation until then (and even after that if you'd like - I don't
 mind either way), but I'm confident in the source and that their government
 is preparing for these actions.  Hopefully cooler heads will prevail before
 it gets out of hand.

 In the interest of getting discussion going, I'll refrain from sharing my
 own personal take on what's likely to happen.  :)

 -greg aka varnent




 ---
 Gregory Varnum
 Lead, Aequalitas Project
 Lead Administrator, WikiQueer
 Founding Principal, VarnEnt
 @GregVarnum
 fb.com/GregVarnum

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-22 Thread Nikola Smolenski
David Gerard wrote:
 2009/6/21 Ray Saintonge sainto...@telus.net:
 Sure, transparency is a problem, but its absence alone does not imply
 fraud.  It hurts the Iranian authorities even more if the vote count is
 accurate because nobody believes them.
 
 Evidence the numbers were made up: humans are not very good at picking
 random numbers:
 
 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR200906204.html

Evidence disappears when spoiled ballots are included: 
http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/8ufal/at_last_a_statistical_smoking_gun_at_the_995/c0agxwd

(Haven't checked myself though.)

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-21 Thread Ray Saintonge
Robert Rohde wrote:
 On Sat, Jun 20, 2009 at 2:07 PM, Ray Saintonge sainto...@telus.net wrote:
   
  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
 wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
 strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
 of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
 what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.
 
 It's easy to explain any margin you want when there are no monitors, no
 reporting of local tallies, and vote aggregation is controlled by a small
 group in one government agency.  It's basically a matter of changing numbers
 in a spreadsheet.

 Regardless of what actually happened, it is pretty clear that the process of
 voting in Iran lacks the fundamental transparency necessary to provide
 confidence in the results.
Sure, transparency is a problem, but its absence alone does not imply 
fraud.  It hurts the Iranian authorities even more if the vote count is 
accurate because nobody believes them. 

Ec

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-21 Thread David Gerard
2009/6/21 Ray Saintonge sainto...@telus.net:

 Sure, transparency is a problem, but its absence alone does not imply
 fraud.  It hurts the Iranian authorities even more if the vote count is
 accurate because nobody believes them.


Evidence the numbers were made up: humans are not very good at picking
random numbers:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR200906204.html

(This is way off-topic ...)


- d.

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-21 Thread Nathan
On Sun, Jun 21, 2009 at 10:00 AM, David Gerard dger...@gmail.com wrote:



 Evidence the numbers were made up: humans are not very good at picking
 random numbers:


 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/20/AR200906204.html

 (This is way off-topic ...)


Convincing, surely, but not as definitive as reports that the Interior
Ministry in Tehran (where votes are counted) remained closed during and
after the election, with doors locked against employees who would otherwise
be tallying ballots.
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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-20 Thread Milos Rancic
On Sat, Jun 20, 2009 at 3:00 PM, philippephilippe.w...@gmail.com wrote:
 Just wondering whether anyone's had a check in from any of our
 wikimedians in Iran?  Any safety reports on our folks?

Good question. I just know that Mardetanha (a steward) is physically
good and frustrated with election results. But, he is not living in
Tehran. I'll ask people at fa.wp to send to me information what is
going on with them.

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-20 Thread philippe
Thanks, Milos... i was concerned about Mardetanha because of my  
connection to him on Elec Comm, good to know he's well.  Now let's see  
what we can find out about the rest of our folks!

Thanks.



On Jun 20, 2009, at 9:21 AM, Milos Rancic wrote:

 Good question. I just know that Mardetanha (a steward) is physically
 good and frustrated with election results. But, he is not living in
 Tehran. I'll ask people at fa.wp to send to me information what is
 going on with them.


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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-20 Thread Milos Rancic
I've got the first report. There are no information that something
happened to any Wikimedian.

Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
2000 in Serbia.

[1] - 
http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-20 Thread Ray Saintonge
Milos Rancic wrote:
 I've got the first report. There are no information that something
 happened to any Wikimedian.

 Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
 not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
 preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
 during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
 to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
 Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
 memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
 2000 in Serbia.

 [1] - 
 http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html
   
Nuclear weaponry in Iran may a concern to powerful western countries, 
but I don't see it as being a major factor in the country's internal 
politics.
  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone 
wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A 
strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source 
of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about 
what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.

Ec

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Re: [Foundation-l] Iran?

2009-06-20 Thread Tomasz Ganicz
2009/6/20 Ray Saintonge sainto...@telus.net:
 Milos Rancic wrote:
 I've got the first report. There are no information that something
 happened to any Wikimedian.

 Take a look at [1]. I don't expect bigger scale problems in Iran, but
 not just because of that analysis. Except theocratic structures,
 preset situation in Iran reminds me a lot to the situation in Serbia
 during late period of Milosevic. State structures without connection
 to reality have to reform themselves or they'll be replaced.
 Fortunately, [ordinary] Iranians don't want war because still fresh
 memories to war between Iraq and Iran. The situation was similar in
 2000 in Serbia.

 [1] - 
 http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html

 Nuclear weaponry in Iran may a concern to powerful western countries,
 but I don't see it as being a major factor in the country's internal
 politics.
  While there may very well have been widespread fraud, that alone
 wouldn't be enough to explain away a 29 percentage point spread.  A
 strong line of national security scare-mongering is always good source
 of votes in the less educated parts of a country. We hear a lot about
 what is happening in Tehran, but very little about the rest of the country.


Believe me that it is possibly to fraud an election and shift the real
results completely :-) History knows many of such examples.

See for example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_people%27s_referendum,_1946

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_general_election,_1946

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Vietnam_referendum,_1955

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_fraud

I don't know if it happened in Iran or not - I think we will know it
for sure not eariler that 50 years from know, or maybe even never...

-- 
Tomek Polimerek Ganicz
http://pl.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Polimerek
http://www.ganicz.pl/poli/
http://www.ptchem.lodz.pl/en/TomaszGanicz.html

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