[geo] Re: TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

2013-10-30 Thread Albert Bates
Having seen my name dropped here I thought I might make a small comment. My 
thoughts are that it would be strategically ill-advised for the 
geoengineering community to denigrate Dr. Shiva or challenge her to debate. 
I have read her writings extensively and agree with some of the comments 
about weak on the science. She is a scientist only at the margins, but she 
is a public policy advocate of the greatest talent and acuity. Because I 
admire her I have attempted to better inform her about soil and carbon 
cycles. Given time I feel she may warm up to recalcitrant carbon and 
afforestation strategies, although she will never admit to favoring 
geoengineering, for the reasons she gives in the interview. 

I agree with Ron that it is unfortunate that biochar, remineralization and 
reforestation/afforestation have been associated with geoengineering. These 
are natural processes that have been going on since the dawn of life, and 
although they are susceptible to human intervention (what isn't?), likely 
will continue long after we are gone (unless we screw the pooch even 
worse). 

Lines are being drawn and sides are being taken in this debate over 
natural versus engineered remedies and while we can lament the 
polarization and call it anti-science or pro-science, chances are none 
of that will change the direction or acceleration of the debate. I lean 
more towards nature-driven processes as inherently safer, having the 
benefit of billion-year trials, but cannot exclude the possibility they may 
not be fast enough to preserve our species, to say nothing of our 
civilization. We have the examples of post-Colombian encounter 
reforestation, and post-Mongolian incursion reforestation, lowering 
atmospheric PgC dramatically on multi-century time scales. Clearly those 
are sequestration techniques having relative cost and risk advantages over 
many others and I think even Naomi Klein and Vandana Shiva might buy in to 
those strategies eventually. The limitation is the multi-century part. 

Vandana Shiva seems to think that going back to organic farming practices 
can entirely solve the climate crisis. She has pounded a stake in the 
ground and tied herself to that. If she is to be countered, it will be on 
the issues of urgency and degrees of effectiveness, IMHO.

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Re: [geo] TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

2013-10-30 Thread Fulkerson, William
Dear Tom:
I agree 350ppm(V) is likely an impossible mark, but stopping at a
concentration equivalent to a two degree limit this century is not.

See, for example, the Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) published last
year by IIASA. It defines some 41 pathways that would work to stay below 2
degrees.  Further, these pathways are compatible with achieving three
other goals:achieving global energy security, assuring universal access to
clean cooking  fuels and electricity for the poor, and avoiding pollution
and other environmental damage from the use of energy. The Global Energy
Assessment is available for free at
GlobalEnvironmentalAssessment.org.  It is in hard copy from Cambridge
University Press.
The best,
Bill Fulkerson
1-865-680-0937
wf...@utk.edu
Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment
The University of Tennessee


On 10/30/13 3:19 AM, Tom Wigley wig...@ucar.edu wrote:

Dear all,

Dropping CO2 concentrations to 350 ppm in 50 years is impossible
unless we can find a cheap way to suck a whole lot of CO2 out of the
atmosphere.

Some simple calculations are attached.

Tom.

=

On 10/29/2013 2:18 PM, Ronal W. Larson wrote:
 List and Brian:

 I just noted a mis-statement.  See below.


 On Oct 29, 2013, at 1:28 PM, Ronal W. Larson rongretlar...@comcast.net
 mailto:rongretlar...@comcast.net wrote:

 Brian (cc list)  This to respond to your three inserts in my
 yesterday¹s response to you

 BC1: */But that's not very good. Warming-induced feedback loops like
 methane deposits are already very scary. I don't say CO2 levels are
 irreversible; my point is about warming from all causes, and you need
 methods of cooling that are much quicker than 50 years. /*

 *[RWL1:   Brian¹s ³that² refers to my just previous statement (see
 below) that we could drop to 350 ppm in 50 years.   Brian is NOT
 arguing for SRM here, although it may seem so.  He is arguing for
 increased latent heat transfer - an approach that seems questionable
 at best - given the strong warming potential of increased atmospheric
 carbon.*

 RWL:   The last word was supposed to be ³moisture²  - NOT ³carbon².
   Apologies.  I am too used to following ³atmospheric² with ³carbon².

 Ron

snip remainder

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Re: [geo] TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

2013-10-30 Thread Fulkerson, William
Dear Tom:
I agree that returning to 350 ppm(v) would be very difficult, but what is
not out of reach is stopping anthropogenic warming at less than 2 degrees
Kelvin.  The 2012 Global Environmental Assessment managed by IIASA found
41 energy pathways for the world that met this goal.  All 41 also met the
goals of energy security, of universal access to clean cooking fuels and
electricity for the poor, and of controlling environmental damage from
energy use.
GEA is available for free, all 1865 pages are on the web at
GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
It was published by Cambridge University Press.

I think this enormous, data rich and comprehensive analysis could provide
a roadmap for each nation and for the world. Only politics stand in the
way.
The best,
Bill
1-865-680-0937
wf...@utk.edu

On 10/30/13 3:19 AM, Tom Wigley wig...@ucar.edu wrote:

Dear all,

Dropping CO2 concentrations to 350 ppm in 50 years is impossible
unless we can find a cheap way to suck a whole lot of CO2 out of the
atmosphere.

Some simple calculations are attached.

Tom.

=

On 10/29/2013 2:18 PM, Ronal W. Larson wrote:
 List and Brian:

 I just noted a mis-statement.  See below.


 On Oct 29, 2013, at 1:28 PM, Ronal W. Larson rongretlar...@comcast.net
 mailto:rongretlar...@comcast.net wrote:

 Brian (cc list)  This to respond to your three inserts in my
 yesterday¹s response to you

 BC1: */But that's not very good. Warming-induced feedback loops like
 methane deposits are already very scary. I don't say CO2 levels are
 irreversible; my point is about warming from all causes, and you need
 methods of cooling that are much quicker than 50 years. /*

 *[RWL1:   Brian¹s ³that² refers to my just previous statement (see
 below) that we could drop to 350 ppm in 50 years.   Brian is NOT
 arguing for SRM here, although it may seem so.  He is arguing for
 increased latent heat transfer - an approach that seems questionable
 at best - given the strong warming potential of increased atmospheric
 carbon.*

 RWL:   The last word was supposed to be ³moisture²  - NOT ³carbon².
   Apologies.  I am too used to following ³atmospheric² with ³carbon².

 Ron

snip remainder

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[geo] Rethinking climate engineering categorization in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation

2013-10-30 Thread Olivier Boucher
Dear members of the geoengineering newsgroup,

you may find our latest article published in WIREs climate change of 
interest to you. It can be found at 
http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC261.html
Title: Rethinking climate engineering categorization in the context of 
climate change mitigation and adaptation 

Here is the abstract: 

The portfolio of approaches to respond to the challenges posed by 
anthropogenic climate change has broadened beyond mitigation and adaptation 
with the recent discussion of potential *climate engineering* options. How 
to define and categorize climate engineering options has been a recurring 
issue in both public and specialist discussions. We assert here that 
current definitions of mitigation, adaptation, and climate engineering are 
ambiguous, overlap with each other and thus contribute to confusing the 
discourse on how to tackle anthropogenic climate change. We propose a new 
and more inclusive categorization into five different classes: 
anthropogenic emissions reductions (AER), territorial or domestic removal 
of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases (D‐GGR), trans‐territorial 
removal of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases (T‐GGR), regional to 
planetary targeted climate modification (TCM), and climate change 
adaptation measures (including local targeted climate and environmental 
modification, abbreviated CCAM). Thus, we suggest that techniques for 
domestic greenhouse gas removal might better be thought of as forming a 
separate category alongside more traditional mitigation techniques that 
consist of emissions reductions. Local targeted climate modification can be 
seen as an adaptation measure as long as there are no detectable remote 
environmental effects. In both cases, the scale and intensity of action are 
essential attributes from the technological, climatic, and political 
viewpoints. While some of the boundaries in this revised classification 
depend on policy and judgement, it offers a foundation for debating on how 
to define and categorize climate engineering options and differentiate them 
from both mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change.

regards,

Olivier Boucher 

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Re: [geo] TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

2013-10-30 Thread Ronal W. Larson
Tom and list:

   1.  I have no disagreement with any of your computations.  The question of 
“irreversibility” in the absence of CDR is well established.This note is to 
add CDR to your analysis, and address your helpful unless”.  In addition to 
your program, I have tried the following 50 year 100 ppm total in a simple 
program at David Archer’s website.  A paper by Boucher etal given in AR5, 
chapter 12 talks of a very similar scenario.  (Apologies for lack of citations 
- I am in a rush today).

2.   I hope we all agree that there is a Technical (not necessarily 
Economic ) potential for CDR to achieve the (roughly) 400 Gt C removal  (half 
coming out of the ocean).  Over 50 years this requires an average of 8 Gt C/yr 
- very close to an annual 1% per year.  We all know 8 Gt C/yr is huge, but few 
would say that 1% change per year is huge.  

   3.   Of course we have to also drop fossil resources and land use changes by 
an even larger annual percentage, but renewables have been growing by a much 
larger percentage annually.  There is also a huge untapped potential for energy 
efficiency  (that can pay for the needed CDR).   We also should consider (but I 
haven’t) the externality costs of the fossil resources.  I feel we will save 
money by going to CDR.  This is NOT a financially burdensome scenario I propose.

4.  In my view of the needed 8Gt C/yr, I assign 2 to afforestation. so 
(over 50 years) we add 100 Gt C to the roughly 500 Gt C of standing biomass.  I 
believe this number is assumed by Jim Hansen.  I don’t believe he attributes 
any thing new to the roughly 1500 Gt C of soil carbon  (roots, microbes, fungi, 
etc).  I would add 100 Gt C there as well - now having gotten half way to the 
needed 400 Gt C transfer of atmospheric and ocean carbon to the biosphere.

   5.   The 4 Gt C/yr remainder must come from 8 to 10 other CDR approaches.  
My knowledge base is only in the biochar area, which I believe (hope I am wrong 
- that there is a better) is the cheapest, so I will give only the biochar 
argument.  I make a similar (not the same) assumption as for afforestation - 
that a tonne of C in char placed in soil will provide an additional tonne C of 
out-yr sequestration benefits.  Unlike the above argument for afforestation, 
which only assumed new soil carbon, here I am assuming that but also a new 
additional out-year above ground biomass C.  So this is perhaps 1 Gt C added 
above and below ground with an assumption of 2 Gt C/yr of directly-applied 
biochar  (by chance the same number as for afforestation).

   6.  The standard reference for biochar’s maximum future contribution is an 
article by Wolff, Amonette, etal - with (at about 1 Gt C/yr) half of my needed 
2 Gt C/yr total.  They assumed there was no increase in out-year carbon 
capture.   They also stated that they had made only conservative assumptions; 
they mostly used ag “wastes”.  The contributions of woody biomass and 
“plantations” were minimal.  They assumed no perennial woody species 
productivity improvement seen for the last century in ag species.  Later 
calculations by others of land use attributed land use for both ag and char 
purposes to the char column alone.  The most promising source of biomass and 
land I have seen since their paper is agave and similar plants that capture CO2 
mainly at night (and much higher water use efficiency) in the “CAM”  (not C3  
or C4) form of photosynthesis.

   7.  I recognize this is not proof of anything, but doubling a conservative 
analysis leading to 1 Gt C/yr does not seem extreme.  Authors such as Tim 
Lenton and Johannes Lehmann have given annual sequestration biochar numbers 
many times larger than my assumed placement of 2 Gt C/yr.

   8.   So now to address Tom W’s question of “cheap”.This is not the place 
for a full dialog on that, but I think biochar purchase (or local production) 
can be made for about $100/t char  ($120/t C or $35/t CO2).  If twice that, I 
believe it would still be cheap enough.  The reason for this optimism is that 
biochar provides energy and soil improvement benefits that allow the char 
production costs to be spread 3 ways - not only for sequestration.  One can buy 
char (produced badly and probably illegally) for as little as $100/t today in 
some places.

   9.   Is there enough land?  I say plenty given the land (2 Gha?) we have 
ruined over the last several hundred years and arid land (3 Gha?) which the 
“CAM” photosynthesis approach can hopefully turn productive.  To get 2 Gt C/yr 
from just 1 Gha of land requires only 2 t C/ha-yr  (same as 200 gms C/sqm-yr).  
Roughly half the carbon in biomass can be turned to char (much of the remainder 
being available as carbon neutral energy to back up solar and wind).  So we 
need an NPP of only 0.4 kg C/sqm-yr (or 4 t C/ha-yr) - just about what we are 
now doing in a global average sense  (using 60 Gt C/yr/13 Gha).  In many places 
we do ten times better today.

  10.  I am not 

[geo] Day of Restitution of the Workshop Reflection Prospective REACT to Paris December 17, 2013 from 9:30 to 17:00 L'Atelier forward thinking on geo-environmental engineering

2013-10-30 Thread Andrew Lockley
Poster's note : This is a Google translate of the text at the bottom, which
for some inexplicable reason was sent in an obsolete European dialect.

L'Atelier forward thinking on geo-environmental engineering REACT launched
its work at the end of 2012. After a year of work that saw the contribution
of many experts, the day of December 17 will enable a broad exchange of
research results around. A final report incorporating all contributions,
including the day of 17 December, will be published in February 2014. We
invite you to participate in this day of restitution including the
provisional program is as follows:

Opening morning of the day the vision of actors on geoengineering
The definition of geo-engineering techniques geoengineering
Afternoon
Global Geo-engineering / local Geoengineering
Nature and Technical Risks
Political Aspects final Roundtable  build expertise in geo-engineering 

The full program of the day will be available on the website
http://arp-reagir.fr in mid-November.

For more information, please contact one of the two coordinators:
Olivier.boucher @ @ lmd.jussieu.fr or benoit.deguillebon apesa.fr
-- Forwarded message --
From: Bénédicte Fisset bfis...@ipsl.jussieu.fr
Date: Oct 30, 2013 4:27 PM
Subject: ARP REAGIR sur la géo-ingénierie de l'environnement: Journée de
restitution le 17 décembre
To: bfis...@ipsl.jussieu.fr
Cc:

*Journée de restitution des travaux de l'Atelier de Réflexion Prospective
 REAGIR*
 *à Paris*
 *le 17 décembre 2013 de 9h30 à 17h00*

 L’Atelier de réflexion prospective sur la géo-ingénierie de
 l’environnement REAGIR a lancé ses travaux à la fin de l'année 2012. Après
 un an de travail qui a vu la contribution de nombreux spécialistes, la
 journée du 17 décembre va permettre un échange large autour des résultats
 des travaux. Un rapport final intégrant l’ensemble des contributions, y
 compris celles de la journée du 17 décembre, sera ensuite publié en février
 2014.
 Nous vous invitons à participer à cette journée de restitution dont le
 programme prévisionnel est le suivant :

 *Matinée  *
 Ouverture de la journée
  La vision des acteurs sur la géo-ingénierie
 La définition de la géo-ingénierie
 Les techniques de la géo-ingénierie
 *Après-midi*
 Géo-ingénierie globale / Géo-ingénierie locale
 Nature et technique
 Aspects politiques
  Risques
 Table ronde finale « construire une expertise sur la géo-ingénierie »

 Le programme complet de la journée sera disponible sur le site
 http://arp-reagir.fr à la mi-novembre.

 Pour en savoir plus, n’hésitez pas à contacter l’un des deux
 coordinateurs:
 olivier.bouc...@lmd.jussieu.fr  ou benoit.deguille...@apesa.fr


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[geo] Re: TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

2013-10-30 Thread Michael Hayes
Albert et. al.,

The degree of negative generalization which Dr. Shiva applies to GE and its 
supporters is troubling. Attacking the supporters, as opposed to the 
science, is simply unprofessional and highly counter productive. Such 
rantings would not be tolerated coming from a freshman in school. She 
devalues her training and maturity through such acts.


It would be interesting to get her views on the use of large scale offshore 
mariculture operations as both a means for climate change mitigation and 
meeting the accelerating need for commodities like food, biofuel, organic 
fertilizer and fresh water. A deep water version of the NASA 
OMEGAhttp://blog.marinexplore.com/nasa-omega-project-the-ocean-as-a-platform-for-biofuel/
 Project, 
which uses nutricline water as the nutrient input, has significant 
potential to address many concerns in this field, as well as, the global 
need for jobs, taxes and living space. 


Yet, to be offhandedly condemned as an evil empire sociopathic plot to rule 
the world, by the highly vocal yet scientifically challenged, would be 
simply childish and distracting. We need long term solution, not school 
yard ad hominem attacks. She needs to focus on the prior.


Best,

Michael 

On Wednesday, October 30, 2013 7:38:10 AM UTC-7, Albert Bates wrote:

 Having seen my name dropped here I thought I might make a small comment. 
 My thoughts are that it would be strategically ill-advised for the 
 geoengineering community to denigrate Dr. Shiva or challenge her to debate. 
 I have read her writings extensively and agree with some of the comments 
 about weak on the science. She is a scientist only at the margins, but she 
 is a public policy advocate of the greatest talent and acuity. Because I 
 admire her I have attempted to better inform her about soil and carbon 
 cycles. Given time I feel she may warm up to recalcitrant carbon and 
 afforestation strategies, although she will never admit to favoring 
 geoengineering, for the reasons she gives in the interview. 

 I agree with Ron that it is unfortunate that biochar, remineralization and 
 reforestation/afforestation have been associated with geoengineering. These 
 are natural processes that have been going on since the dawn of life, and 
 although they are susceptible to human intervention (what isn't?), likely 
 will continue long after we are gone (unless we screw the pooch even 
 worse). 

 Lines are being drawn and sides are being taken in this debate over 
 natural versus engineered remedies and while we can lament the 
 polarization and call it anti-science or pro-science, chances are none 
 of that will change the direction or acceleration of the debate. I lean 
 more towards nature-driven processes as inherently safer, having the 
 benefit of billion-year trials, but cannot exclude the possibility they may 
 not be fast enough to preserve our species, to say nothing of our 
 civilization. We have the examples of post-Colombian encounter 
 reforestation, and post-Mongolian incursion reforestation, lowering 
 atmospheric PgC dramatically on multi-century time scales. Clearly those 
 are sequestration techniques having relative cost and risk advantages over 
 many others and I think even Naomi Klein and Vandana Shiva might buy in to 
 those strategies eventually. The limitation is the multi-century part. 

 Vandana Shiva seems to think that going back to organic farming practices 
 can entirely solve the climate crisis. She has pounded a stake in the 
 ground and tied herself to that. If she is to be countered, it will be on 
 the issues of urgency and degrees of effectiveness, IMHO.



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Re: [geo] TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

2013-10-30 Thread Tom Wigley

Greg,

Thanks for this addition. My carbon cycle model has a convolution model
for the ocean. This does have a long tail, but it is not as large as in 
the papers you cite. So, if these studies are correct, and I do believe 
they are, then my results are indeed optimistic.


The main point is that we cannot get back to 350 ppm by mitigation 
alone. There are still many who think we can, and my simple sums were

presented as a reality check for those people. As your papers and the
others you cite, and papers cited in these, show, this is not new news.

Tom.

+

On 10/30/2013 4:02 PM, Greg Rau wrote:

Tom,
Your CO2 trajectory would seem overly optimistic unless I'm misreading
Archer's treatment:
http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/TXVr5xrStR8vCEuTmECx/full/10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206

Indeed, we can't get to 350 ppm any time soon with anthro emissions
reduction alone. That's why it's worth considering more proactive
measures, e.g., attached and argued here:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/340/6140/1522.2.full

not to mention broached in AR5 and elsewhere. A daunting task to be
sure, but trying would seem better than the alternative.

One piece of encouragement - atmospheric CO2 does intra-annually decline
at most latitudes by as much as 16 ppm via natural air capture, and this
uptake is increasing*. So we are not starting with zero CDR - how tough
would it be to safely enhance/accelerate this uptake? Nor as I argue, do
we need to necessarily enhance air capture.  We can achieve the same
effect by reducing the leakiness of Nature's carbon storage, the largest
emitter on the planet by far.

*
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6150/1085.full?sid=4adfc7d3-e42f-46e4-9f5b-3507b927672e


Greg


*From:* Tom Wigley wig...@ucar.edu
*To:* geoengineering@googlegroups.com
*Sent:* Wednesday, October 30, 2013 12:19 AM
*Subject:* Re: [geo] TERRA FUTURA 2013: INTERVIEW WITH VANDANA SHIVA
ABOUT GEOENGINEERING | NoGeoingegneria

Dear all,

Dropping CO2 concentrations to 350 ppm in 50 years is impossible
unless we can find a cheap way to suck a whole lot of CO2 out of the
atmosphere.

Some simple calculations are attached.

Tom.

=

On 10/29/2013 2:18 PM, Ronal W. Larson wrote:
  List and Brian:
 
 I just noted a mis-statement.  See below.
 
 
  On Oct 29, 2013, at 1:28 PM, Ronal W. Larson
rongretlar...@comcast.net mailto:rongretlar...@comcast.net
  mailto:rongretlar...@comcast.net
mailto:rongretlar...@comcast.net wrote:
 
  Brian (cc list)  This to respond to your three inserts in my
  yesterday’s response to you
 
  BC1: */But that's not very good. Warming-induced feedback loops like
  methane deposits are already very scary. I don't say CO2 levels are
  irreversible; my point is about warming from all causes, and you
need
  methods of cooling that are much quicker than 50 years. /*
 
  *[RWL1:  Brian’s “that” refers to my just previous statement (see
  below) that we could drop to 350 ppm in 50 years.  Brian is NOT
  arguing for SRM here, although it may seem so.  He is arguing for
  increased latent heat transfer - an approach that seems questionable
  at best - given the strong warming potential of increased
atmospheric
  carbon.*
 
 RWL:  The last word was supposed to be “moisture”  - NOT “carbon”.
   Apologies.  I am too used to following “atmospheric” with “carbon”.
 
  Ron
 
snip remainder
 
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