[geo] Solar radiation management could be a game changer : Nature Climate Change

2014-09-30 Thread Andrew Lockley
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2360.html

Solar radiation management could be a game changer

Peter J. Irvine, Stefan Schäfer  Mark G. Lawrence

Nature Climate Change 4, 842 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2360

25 September 2014

Barrett et al.1 argue that, given the challenges with solar radiation
management (SRM) geoengineering, “when the use of geoengineering is
politically feasible, the intervention may not be effective; and ... when
the use of geoengineering might be effective, its deployment may not be
politically feasible”. We believe… (and that's all you get without paying.
Sorry!)

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[geo] Open : A review of ocean color remote sensing methods and statistical techniques for the detection, mapping and analysis of phytoplankton blooms in coastal and open oceans

2014-09-30 Thread Andrew Lockley
Poster's note : useful for OIF monitoring

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966111420?_rdoc=1_fmt=high_origin=gateway_docanchor=md5=b8429449ccfc9c30159a5f9aeaa92ffbccp=y

Progress in Oceanography
April 2014, Vol.123:123–144, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2013.12.008
Open Access,

A review of ocean color remote sensing methods and statistical techniques
for the detection, mapping and analysis of phytoplankton blooms in coastal
and open oceans

David Blondeau-Patissier
James F.R. Gower
Vittorio E. Brando

Abstract

The need for more effective environmental monitoring of the open and
coastal ocean has recently led to notable advances in satellite ocean color
technology and algorithm research. Satellite ocean color sensors’ data are
widely used for the detection, mapping and monitoring of phytoplankton
blooms because earth observation provides a synoptic view of the ocean,
both spatially and temporally. Algal blooms are indicators of marine
ecosystem health; thus, their monitoring is a key component of effective
management of coastal and oceanic resources. Since the late 1970s, a wide
variety of operational ocean color satellite sensors and algorithms have
been developed. The comprehensive review presented in this article captures
the details of the progress and discusses the advantages and limitations of
the algorithms used with the multi-spectral ocean color sensors CZCS,
SeaWiFS, MODIS and MERIS. Present challenges include overcoming the severe
limitation of these algorithms in coastal waters and refining detection
limits in various oceanic and coastal environments. To understand the
spatio-temporal patterns of algal blooms and their triggering factors, it
is essential to consider the possible effects of environmental parameters,
such as water temperature, turbidity, solar radiation and bathymetry.
Hence, this review will also discuss the use of statistical techniques and
additional datasets derived from ecosystem models or other satellite
sensors to characterize further the factors triggering or limiting the
development of algal blooms in coastal and open ocean waters.

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Re: [geo] Solar radiation management could be a game changer : Nature Climate Change

2014-09-30 Thread Greg Rau
Here's the full wording (letter to editor):
To the Editor— Barrettetal.1 argue that, given the challenges with solar 
radiation management (SRM) geoengineering, “when the use of geoengineering is 
politically feasible, the intervention may not be effective; and… when the use 
of geoengineering might be effective, its deployment may not be politically 
feasible”. We believe the first part of this conclusion depends on a relatively 
narrow definition of efficacy that may not reflect the real concerns that would 
motivate a potential deployment of SRM, whereas the second part of the 
conclusion lacks evidence and therefore is speculative at this stage. Although 
the evidence from model studies about the impacts of SRM geoengineering is, at 
present, limited, the initial evidence broadly indicates that SRM deployed to 
cool the climate could potentially reduce many of the physical impacts of 
climate change as well as the risk of crossing tipping points2–4, as 
Barrettetal.
 acknowledge. This is because many climate impact drivers depend directly on 
temperature, such as high-temperature extremes, the thermal expansion of water, 
the melting of snow and ice and the intensity of 
precipitation2–5.Barrettetal. argue that the potential benefits of SRM could 
not be secured due to political controversy around regionally differentiated 
effects and fears of becoming ‘addicted’ to SRM. While there are undoubtedly 
regional differences in the climate response to SRM, the general reversal of 
temperature increases would be felt worldwide, as would some benefits such as a 
reduction in sea-level rise2,4,6. To argue that SRM deployment is politically 
infeasible due to its differentiated regional effects, which will be 
challenging to predict in detail, it would have to be demonstrated that 
regional considerations would trump the benefits of an overall reduction of 
physical climate impacts in shaping states’ preferences. The
 claim that the fear of becoming addicted to SRM would make SRM politically 
unfeasible would similarly need to be substantiated by theoretical 
considerations and evidence from analogous cases. Barrettetal. claim that as 
a response to crossing a tipping point, SRM would be politically feasible, but 
ineffective. However, they fail to acknowledge that while SRM may not reverse 
the changes following the passing of a tipping point, in many cases it could 
reduce the rate of change and hence reduce some of the harm that the passing of 
a tipping point would cause7. SRM is no panacea; it would introduce new risks 
and would shift the overall burden of risks, which might pose substantial 
political problems, as Barrettetal. indicate. It is also clear that to 
minimize the risks posed by climate change, mitigation will need to be pursued 
vigorously. Although much is uncertain about the potential impacts of SRM, 
should we not at least seriously consider how
 the world would react if SRM eventually proved to be a highly effective means 
of reducing the physical risks of climate change? In this case, SRM 
geoengineering would indeed be a game changer.  ❐References1.  Barrett, S. 
etal. Nature Clim. Change 4, 527–529 (2014).2.  Irvine, P.J., Sriver, R.L.  
Keller, K. Nature Clim. Change 2, 97–100 (2012).3.  Curry, C.L. etal. 
J.Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 3900–3923 (2014).4.  Kravitz, B. etal. 
J.Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 8320–8332 (2013).5.  Smith, J.B. etal. Proc. 
Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 4133–4137 (2009).6.  Irvine, P.J., Ridgwell, A.J.  
Lunt, D.J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L18702 (2010).7.  Irvine, P.J., Lunt, 
D.J., Stone, E.J.  Ridgwell, A.J. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 045109 
(2009).Peter J. Irvine*, Stefan Schäfer and Mark G. LawrenceInstitute for 
Advanced Sustainability Studies, Sustainable Interactions with the Atmosphere, 
Berliner Strasse 130,
 Potsdam 14467, Germany. *e-mail: peter.irv...@iass-potsdam.de




 From: Andrew Lockley andrew.lock...@gmail.com
To: geoengineering geoengineering@googlegroups.com 
Sent: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 1:03 AM
Subject: [geo] Solar radiation management could be a game changer : Nature 
Climate Change
 


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2360.html
Solar radiation management could be a game changer
Peter J. Irvine,   Stefan Schäfer   Mark G. Lawrence
Nature Climate Change 4, 842 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2360
25 September 2014
Barrett et al.1 argue that, given the challenges with solar radiation 
management (SRM) geoengineering, “when the use of geoengineering is 
politically feasible, the intervention may not be effective; and ... when the 
use of geoengineering might be effective, its deployment may not be 
politically feasible”. We believe… (and that's all you get without paying. 
Sorry!) 
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email 

[geo] How we can make good decisions about geoengineering | Carbon Brief

2014-09-30 Thread Andrew Lockley
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/09/how-we-can-make-good-decisions-about-geoengineering/

How we can make good decisions about geoengineering

30 Sep 2014, 15:15

Dr Rob Bellamy NERC

Next month's synthesis report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) is due to give the organisation's verdict on geoengineering,
a radical set of proposals to use large-scale technologies to tackle
climate change.

There are two types of geoengineering. Carbon geoengineering seeks to
remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, for example by capturing it from
the air and storing it underground, or by adding iron to the oceans to
trigger carbon-absorbing algal blooms.

Solar geoengineering is different. It seeks to reflect some sunlight away
from the Earth before it can be trapped by greenhouse gases.This can be
done, for example, by spraying clouds with sea salt to make them more
reflective, or by stratospheric aerosol injection, where reflective
particles are pumped into the atmosphere.My colleagues and I have
been  examining the importance of 'opening up' discussion about
geoengineering to alternative options, different perspectives and real
world complexity.

'Closing down' assessmentOur earlier research has shown that the ways in
which researchers frame assessments of geoengineering have important
effects on the conclusions people come to.It's common for such assessments
to keep framings narrow. For example, researchers might choose to evaluate
one or more geoengineering techniques, but not consider alternative options
for tackling climate change, like renewable power or greener lifestyles.

Such narrow framings typically involve also leaving out public and
stakeholder participation, obscuring social issues under technical
criteria, and mishandling uncertainties by oversimplifying complexity.

  Analysis of the frequency of different geoengineering proposals featured
in standard appraisals shows a closing down particular proposals. Source:
Bellamy et al., (2012)

Take the example of the UK Royal Society's influential 2009 report into
geoengineering. It convened a small group of experts to assess
geoengineering proposals against four technical criteria: effectiveness,
affordability, timeliness and safety.It's perhaps not surprising then that
stratospheric aerosol injection, an apparently cheap, effective and fast
acting proposal, came out of the assessment as the best choice. The
assessment gave only a token nod to the uncertainties by adding arbitrary
error bars.

We've found that this is a common theme. Through narrow framings,
assessments of geoengineering have served to 'close down' on certain
proposals, with stratospheric aerosol injection often coming out
ahead.Stratospheric aerosol injection means releasing small particles into
the stratosphere which will reflect incoming solar radiation, cooling the
Earth.

Another way?

This 'closing down' in assessments of geoengineering is a problem, because
it risks locking us in to decisions that are not adequately informed and
that will engender conflict between different values and interests.

Geoengineering is an issue that is too complex and has too much at stake to
be decided by narrow framings that ignore broader concerns. That's why
we've suggested a new way to perform such assessments, that can help open
up discussion about geoengineering.Developing a technique called
Deliberative Mapping (DM), we have assessed geoengineering proposals
alongside alternative ways of tackling climate change, like low carbon
lifestyles and renewable energy technologies.We convened a small but
diverse international groups of academic experts, civil society, government
and industry stakeholders, alongside members of the public from Norfolk in
the UK. We asked them to come up with a set of criteria that they felt were
important when assessing different options to deal with climate change.The
criteria they came up with went beyond narrow technical criteria to include
social issues such as politics, society and ethics. But they also came up
with more in-depth technical criteria on effectiveness, environmental
impacts, feasibility and economics.

Criteria for assessing geoengineering proposals identified by academic
experts, civil society, government, industry stakeholders and the public.
Source: Bellamy et al., ( 2014)

Where in other research, 'effectiveness' has often been simply equated to
global temperature reduction, and 'affordability' to capital investment,
our assessment broadened out those criteria to account for carbon dioxide
reduction and litigation costs, amongst many other issues.

By expanding the criteria used to judge geoengineering and by measuring
both the optimistic and pessimistic performance of each option, this method
enabled our participants to consider all of the uncertainties in a much
more substantive way.

A remarkable consistency

You might think that adding more options, perspectives, criteria and
uncertainty into the mix in this way would 

[geo] CDR cheaper than CCS

2014-09-30 Thread Rau, Greg
All in all this [CCS] is pretty impressive technology for mitigating CO2 but 
we need to seriously question the rationale for spending so much to justify 
keeping coal-fired power plants in operation. That's because CCS is the most 
expensive approach we can take to CDR, carbon dioxide removal.

http://www.21stcentech.com/cdr-role-mitigating-climate-change/

Confusing CO2 emissions reduction with CDR, but still interesting points.

Greg

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Fwd: [geo] Open : A review of ocean color remote sensing methods and statistical techniques for the detection, mapping and analysis of phytoplankton blooms in coastal and open oceans

2014-09-30 Thread Fred Zimmerman
Many interesting developments in here.

1) We're getting better at real time observation of algal blooms thanks to
multi sensor multi band and multi platform devices (ARGO + satellite is a
potent combination) but not there yet.

2) Of particular note for the geoengineering community is the importance of
supporting long-term decadal planning to ensure continuity of global remote
sensing services:

[there was a]10-year gap between CZCS and SeaWiFS
 (Fig. 4). This lack of data affected the possibility of answering many
 environmental questions, one of which was whether the volcanic
 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 caused large
 phytoplankton blooms. The 10 cubic kilometers of material ejected
 by Mount Pinatubo contained trace metals (Gabrielli et al., 2008),
 especially iron, that were spread by the winds over the world’s
 oceans. These atmospheric depositions are likely to have generated
 large-scale phytoplankton blooms, but no ocean color satellite records
 for those events exist.


Continuity of the global satellite record cannot be taken for granted and
in fact is regularly imperiled everytime a satellite fails or a mission is
delayed or cancelled.  It would be good if some of the visionaries and
venture capitalists who watch this space threw their weight behind backing
civil scientific space missions.  Without the satellite record for climate
science, geoengineering is guessing in the dark.
ᐧ

On Tue, Sep 30, 2014 at 4:33 AM, Andrew Lockley andrew.lock...@gmail.com
wrote:

 Poster's note : useful for OIF monitoring


 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S007966111420?_rdoc=1_fmt=high_origin=gateway_docanchor=md5=b8429449ccfc9c30159a5f9aeaa92ffbccp=y

 Progress in Oceanography
 April 2014, Vol.123:123–144, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2013.12.008
 Open Access,

 A review of ocean color remote sensing methods and statistical techniques
 for the detection, mapping and analysis of phytoplankton blooms in coastal
 and open oceans

 David Blondeau-Patissier
 James F.R. Gower
 Vittorio E. Brando

 Abstract

 The need for more effective environmental monitoring of the open and
 coastal ocean has recently led to notable advances in satellite ocean color
 technology and algorithm research. Satellite ocean color sensors’ data are
 widely used for the detection, mapping and monitoring of phytoplankton
 blooms because earth observation provides a synoptic view of the ocean,
 both spatially and temporally. Algal blooms are indicators of marine
 ecosystem health; thus, their monitoring is a key component of effective
 management of coastal and oceanic resources. Since the late 1970s, a wide
 variety of operational ocean color satellite sensors and algorithms have
 been developed. The comprehensive review presented in this article captures
 the details of the progress and discusses the advantages and limitations of
 the algorithms used with the multi-spectral ocean color sensors CZCS,
 SeaWiFS, MODIS and MERIS. Present challenges include overcoming the severe
 limitation of these algorithms in coastal waters and refining detection
 limits in various oceanic and coastal environments. To understand the
 spatio-temporal patterns of algal blooms and their triggering factors, it
 is essential to consider the possible effects of environmental parameters,
 such as water temperature, turbidity, solar radiation and bathymetry.
 Hence, this review will also discuss the use of statistical techniques and
 additional datasets derived from ecosystem models or other satellite
 sensors to characterize further the factors triggering or limiting the
 development of algal blooms in coastal and open ocean waters.

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[geo] Natural olivine beaches

2014-09-30 Thread Andrew Lockley
Hi

The proposal for olivine weathering on beaches seems to pass a common sense
test.

However, there's been a lack of detailed discussion about the occurrence
and function of natural olivine beaches, as far as I'm aware.

There are a lot of beaches in the world. Olivine is pretty common. How much
of a sink is natural beach chemical and mechanical weathering of olivine?

It should be easy to find at least one location where there's massive
quantities of olivine sand, and take detailed measurements on the carbon
sink.

I know there's at least one such beach in the literature, but I can't
recall discussions of others, nor detailed quantitative research on erosion
and sequestration rates at this site

Can someone enlighten me as to why this has seemingly been overlooked for
detailed study?

A

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