Re: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change
Hi Emily, Could you give some more details and/or post this in a separate thread, this seems like a big deal! I mentioned your comment to some folks involved in governance here at the geoengineering group at the IASS and they were very interested / worried! cheers, Pete On Saturday, 6 April 2013 21:46:33 UTC+2, Emily L-B wrote: Hi all, One thing that perturbed me last year was the etc work at the un fao csm conf on food security where they are highly respected in the civil society movement. A move in civil society to oppose Genetic engineering was mutated to a call for a ban on Geo engineering. If this move had been successful, and put to the unfao on behalf of the large and wide group of civil society organisations, it could have precipitated another un body opposing geo engineering, which I don't think had been the intention of most of the organisations being represented. I was glad this move was retracted when I challenged it, but I suppose it will be tried again. It is a shame to me that this kind of tricky tactic is being used. Civil society will need to be vigilant that they do not end up calling for a ban on the wrong thing! In terms of the paper cited below, an EIA of geo-eng would compare the risk of potential impacts from any geo-eng project in the future against the expected status in the future, not the current status. Ie if the Sahel is due to dry with climate change and is also due to dry with a proposed SRM project, this would mean the drying needs to mitigated (ameliorated) whether the SRM takes place or not. In good faith, Emily. Sent from my BlackBerry -- *From: * RAU greg gh...@sbcglobal.net javascript: *Sender: * geoengi...@googlegroups.com javascript: *Date: *Sat, 6 Apr 2013 10:31:59 -0700 (PDT) *To: *omeco...@gmail.com javascript:; geoengi...@googlegroups.comjavascript: *ReplyTo: * gh...@sbcglobal.net javascript: *Cc: *j...@etcgroup.org javascript: *Subject: *Re: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change Thanks Oliver. Just to clarify from the link, ETC's stated Plan A is: pull out and dust off the many practical proposals that have been around for decades that would plant trees, push back the Sahara, and support sustainable agricultural strategies in the region. And, if that’s not enough in a dire emergency, then make sure there is sufficient food aid. I'd also suggest throwing in some significant family planning aid. Apparently sufficient food aid will be required because the planted trees will be occupying otherwise arable land(?) In any case sounds like some serious social, bio, and geo engineering to me, which I'm all for carefully considering. But how is this immune from the same criticism as GE with regard to effectiveness and unintended consequences, and especially what is the likelihood of achieving Plan A goals given African social and political instability, not to mention lack of global will? This is why it's dangerous at this stage to dismiss any Plan B option until it is proven that it is not needed, and why ETC's vehement opposition to such seems so irrational. This is making a big assumption that their true agenda is to maintain earth habitability. -Greg * * * * * * *From:* O Morton omeco...@gmail.com javascript: *To:* geoengi...@googlegroups.com javascript: *Sent:* Sat, April 6, 2013 2:27:49 AM *Subject:* [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change Opps: forgot teh URL of Jim's post http://www.etcgroup.org/content/normalizing-geoengineering-foreign-aid On Monday, 1 April 2013 11:17:28 UTC+1, andrewjlockley wrote: Posters note: a discussion of the policy implications of this paper can be found at http://m.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2013/mar/31/earth- cooling-schemes-global-signoffhttp://m.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/31/earth-cooling-schemes-global-signoff, pasted below. http://www.nature.com/ nclimate/journal/vaop/ ncurrent/full/nclimate1857. htmlhttp://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1857.html Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Nicolas Bellouin David Stephenson Nature Climate Change (2013) doi:10.1038/ nclimate1857 Received 23 October 2012 Accepted 22 February 2013 Published online 31 March 2013 The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees. It has been attributed to natural variability, over-grazing and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation. We suggest that sporadic volcanic
Re: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change
Thanks Oliver. Just to clarify from the link, ETC's stated Plan A is: pull out and dust off the many practical proposals that have been around for decades that would plant trees, push back the Sahara, and support sustainable agricultural strategies in the region. And, if that’s not enough in a dire emergency, then make sure there is sufficient food aid. I'd also suggest throwing in some significant family planning aid. Apparently sufficient food aid will be required because the planted trees will be occupying otherwise arable land(?) In any case sounds like some serious social, bio, and geo engineering to me, which I'm all for carefully considering. But how is this immune from the same criticism as GE with regard to effectiveness and unintended consequences, and especially what is the likelihood of achieving Plan A goals given African social and political instability, not to mention lack of global will? This is why it's dangerous at this stage to dismiss any Plan B option until it is proven that it is not needed, and why ETC's vehement opposition to such seems so irrational. This is making a big assumption that their true agenda is to maintain earth habitability. -Greg From: O Morton omeconom...@gmail.com To: geoengineering@googlegroups.com Sent: Sat, April 6, 2013 2:27:49 AM Subject: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change Opps: forgot teh URL of Jim's post http://www.etcgroup.org/content/normalizing-geoengineering-foreign-aid On Monday, 1 April 2013 11:17:28 UTC+1, andrewjlockley wrote: Posters note: a discussion of the policy implications of this paper can be found at http://m.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2013/mar/31/earth- cooling-schemes-global-signoff , pasted below. http://www.nature.com/ nclimate/journal/vaop/ ncurrent/full/nclimate1857. html Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Nicolas Bellouin David Stephenson Nature Climate Change (2013) doi:10.1038/ nclimate1857 Received 23 October 2012 Accepted 22 February 2013 Published online 31 March 2013 The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees. It has been attributed to natural variability, over-grazing and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere–ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented. Comment piece below, http://m.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2013/mar/31/earth- cooling-schemes-global-signoff Guardian, Sunday 31 March 2013 17.59 BST AIan Sample, science correspondent Earth-cooling schemes need global sign-off, researchers say World's most vulnerable people need protection from huge and unintended impacts of radical geoengineering projects. Controversial geoengineering projects that may be used to cool the planet must be approved by world governments to reduce the danger of catastrophic accidents, British scientists said.Met Office researchers have called for global oversight of the radical schemes after studies showed they could have huge and unintended impacts on some of the world's most vulnerable people.The dangers arose in projects that cooled the planet unevenly. In some cases these caused devastating droughts across Africa; in others they increased rainfall in the region but left huge areas of Brazil parched.The massive complexities associated with geoengineering, and the potential for winners and losers, means that some form of global governance is essential, said Jim Haywood at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter.The warning builds on work by scientists and engineers to agree a regulatory framework that would ban full-scale geoengineering projects, at least temporarily, but allow smaller research projects to go ahead.Geoengineering
Re: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change
Hi all, One thing that perturbed me last year was the etc work at the un fao csm conf on food security where they are highly respected in the civil society movement. A move in civil society to oppose Genetic engineering was mutated to a call for a ban on Geo engineering. If this move had been successful, and put to the unfao on behalf of the large and wide group of civil society organisations, it could have precipitated another un body opposing geo engineering, which I don't think had been the intention of most of the organisations being represented. I was glad this move was retracted when I challenged it, but I suppose it will be tried again. It is a shame to me that this kind of tricky tactic is being used. Civil society will need to be vigilant that they do not end up calling for a ban on the wrong thing! In terms of the paper cited below, an EIA of geo-eng would compare the risk of potential impacts from any geo-eng project in the future against the expected status in the future, not the current status. Ie if the Sahel is due to dry with climate change and is also due to dry with a proposed SRM project, this would mean the drying needs to mitigated (ameliorated) whether the SRM takes place or not. In good faith, Emily. Sent from my BlackBerry -Original Message- From: RAU greg gh...@sbcglobal.net Sender: geoengineering@googlegroups.com Date: Sat, 6 Apr 2013 10:31:59 To: omeconom...@gmail.com; geoengineering@googlegroups.com Reply-To: gh...@sbcglobal.net Cc: j...@etcgroup.org Subject: Re: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change Thanks Oliver. Just to clarify from the link, ETC's stated Plan A is: pull out and dust off the many practical proposals that have been around for decades that would plant trees, push back the Sahara, and support sustainable agricultural strategies in the region. And, if that’s not enough in a dire emergency, then make sure there is sufficient food aid. I'd also suggest throwing in some significant family planning aid. Apparently sufficient food aid will be required because the planted trees will be occupying otherwise arable land(?) In any case sounds like some serious social, bio, and geo engineering to me, which I'm all for carefully considering. But how is this immune from the same criticism as GE with regard to effectiveness and unintended consequences, and especially what is the likelihood of achieving Plan A goals given African social and political instability, not to mention lack of global will? This is why it's dangerous at this stage to dismiss any Plan B option until it is proven that it is not needed, and why ETC's vehement opposition to such seems so irrational. This is making a big assumption that their true agenda is to maintain earth habitability. -Greg From: O Morton omeconom...@gmail.com To: geoengineering@googlegroups.com Sent: Sat, April 6, 2013 2:27:49 AM Subject: [geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change Opps: forgot teh URL of Jim's post http://www.etcgroup.org/content/normalizing-geoengineering-foreign-aid On Monday, 1 April 2013 11:17:28 UTC+1, andrewjlockley wrote: Posters note: a discussion of the policy implications of this paper can be found at http://m.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2013/mar/31/earth- cooling-schemes-global-signoff , pasted below. http://www.nature.com/ nclimate/journal/vaop/ ncurrent/full/nclimate1857. html Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Nicolas Bellouin David Stephenson Nature Climate Change (2013) doi:10.1038/ nclimate1857 Received 23 October 2012 Accepted 22 February 2013 Published online 31 March 2013 The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees. It has been attributed to natural variability, over-grazing and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere–ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies
[geo] Re: Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall : Nature Climate Change
Sorry, Andrew, I seem to have thoughtlessly double threaded -- feel free to put my recent post into this thread if that is within your moderating remit... On Monday, 1 April 2013 11:17:28 UTC+1, andrewjlockley wrote: Posters note: a discussion of the policy implications of this paper can be found at http://m.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/31/earth-cooling-schemes-global-signoff, pasted below. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1857.html Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Nicolas Bellouin David Stephenson Nature Climate Change (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1857 Received 23 October 2012 Accepted 22 February 2013 Published online 31 March 2013 The Sahelian drought of the 1970s–1990s was one of the largest humanitarian disasters of the past 50 years, causing up to 250,000 deaths and creating 10 million refugees. It has been attributed to natural variability, over-grazing and the impact of industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Each mechanism can influence the Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, which is strongly coupled to Sahelian precipitation. We suggest that sporadic volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere also strongly influence this gradient and cause Sahelian drought. Using de-trended observations from 1900 to 2010, we show that three of the four driest Sahelian summers were preceded by substantial Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions. We use a state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere–ocean model to simulate both episodic volcanic eruptions and geoengineering by continuous deliberate injection into the stratosphere. In either case, large asymmetric stratospheric aerosol loadings concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere are a harbinger of Sahelian drought whereas those concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere induce a greening of the Sahel. Further studies of the detailed regional impacts on the Sahel and other vulnerable areas are required to inform policymakers in developing careful consensual global governance before any practical solar radiation management geoengineering scheme is implemented. Comment piece below, http://m.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/31/earth-cooling-schemes-global-signoff Guardian, Sunday 31 March 2013 17.59 BST AIan Sample, science correspondent Earth-cooling schemes need global sign-off, researchers say World's most vulnerable people need protection from huge and unintended impacts of radical geoengineering projects. Controversial geoengineering projects that may be used to cool the planet must be approved by world governments to reduce the danger of catastrophic accidents, British scientists said.Met Office researchers have called for global oversight of the radical schemes after studies showed they could have huge and unintended impacts on some of the world's most vulnerable people.The dangers arose in projects that cooled the planet unevenly. In some cases these caused devastating droughts across Africa; in others they increased rainfall in the region but left huge areas of Brazil parched.The massive complexities associated with geoengineering, and the potential for winners and losers, means that some form of global governance is essential, said Jim Haywood at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter.The warning builds on work by scientists and engineers to agree a regulatory framework that would ban full-scale geoengineering projects, at least temporarily, but allow smaller research projects to go ahead.Geoengineering comes in many flavours, but among the more plausible are solar radiation management (SRM) schemes that would spray huge amounts of sun-reflecting particles high into the atmosphere to simulate the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions.Volcanoes can blast millions of tonnes of sulphate particles into the stratosphere, where they stay aloft for years and cool the planet by reflecting some of the sun's energy back out to space.In 2009, a Royal Society report warned that geoengineering was not an alternative to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, but conceded the technology might be needed in the event of a climate emergency.Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Haywood and others show that moves to cool the climate by spraying sulphate particles into the atmosphere could go spectacularly wrong. They began by looking at the unexpected impacts of volcanic eruptions.In 1912 and 1982, eruptions first at Katmai in Alaska and then at El Chichón in Mexico blasted millions of tonnes of sulphate into northern skies. These eruptions preceded major droughts in the Sahel region of Africa. When the scientists recreated the eruptions in climate models, rainfall across the Sahel all but stopped as moisture-carrying air currents were pushed south.Having established a link between volcanic eruptions in the
