[LU] 7 matches left

[David Smail]

The script is written I think. We may make playoffs but will not gain
promotion. It's been a good season, the best for some years, but we're not a
ready for the Premiership - sadly because of what we do on the pitch. The
support, ground and facilities are all of Premiership standing.  Gary Monk
has done a great job and I salute him - perhaps in a season or two we can
achieve it. 

 

Dave

 

 

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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[{broken-address}]

I was waiting for someone to point that out. I didn't count the Charity Shield 
as nobody really cares about it. It's not considered a "trophy" when most 
people count trophies won, nor do you get anything (like promotion or a place 
in Europe) for winning it.


Cheers!


Sean



-Original Message-
From: David W <davidwool...@gmail.com>
To: {broken-address} <seanscr...@aol.com-is-broken.gn.apc.org>
Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
Sent: Mon, Apr 3, 2017 11:37 am
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

One exception to the rule - 1992 Charity Shield. :)

On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:15 PM, {broken-address} <
seanscr...@aol.com-is-broken.gn.apc.org> wrote:

> Rob,
>
>
> Leeds have failed to win it all in far more than the most recent seven
> "last four" appearances. Since "Clarke... 1-0!" we have made at least the
> last four in the following 15 knock-out/winner-take-all contests, and
> failed to win any of them:
>
>
> FA Cup: 1973, 1977, 1987
> League Cup: 1978, 1979, 1991, 1996
> European Cup/Champions League: 1975, 2001
> UEFA Cup: 2000
> European Cup Winners' Cup: 1973
> Playoffs: 1987, 2006, 2008, 2009
>
>
> Cheers!
>
>
> Sean
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Rob Heath <rhe...@hkis.edu.hk>
> To: nattan <nat...@sky.com>
> Cc: leeds list <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
> Sent: Mon, Apr 3, 2017 10:01 am
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.
>
> I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
> into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
> number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
>
> 1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
> down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
> time are still even.
>
> Or are they?
>
> 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
> if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
> being heads are greater.
>
> Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
> occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
> 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
> the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.
>
> Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
> think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
> from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
> quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
> worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
> have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
> on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
> can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
> would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
> weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
> getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
> vulnerable in recent weeks.
>
> Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com <nat...@sky.com> wrote:
>
> > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) -
> Even
> > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday
> and
> > Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our
> nerve
> > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> > needed.
> > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house.
> This
> > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their
> ground)
> > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> > Real

Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[David W]

One exception to the rule - 1992 Charity Shield. :)

On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:15 PM, {broken-address} <
seanscr...@aol.com-is-broken.gn.apc.org> wrote:

> Rob,
>
>
> Leeds have failed to win it all in far more than the most recent seven
> "last four" appearances. Since "Clarke... 1-0!" we have made at least the
> last four in the following 15 knock-out/winner-take-all contests, and
> failed to win any of them:
>
>
> FA Cup: 1973, 1977, 1987
> League Cup: 1978, 1979, 1991, 1996
> European Cup/Champions League: 1975, 2001
> UEFA Cup: 2000
> European Cup Winners' Cup: 1973
> Playoffs: 1987, 2006, 2008, 2009
>
>
> Cheers!
>
>
> Sean
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Rob Heath <rhe...@hkis.edu.hk>
> To: nattan <nat...@sky.com>
> Cc: leeds list <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
> Sent: Mon, Apr 3, 2017 10:01 am
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.
>
> I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
> into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
> number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
>
> 1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
> down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
> time are still even.
>
> Or are they?
>
> 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
> if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
> being heads are greater.
>
> Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
> occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
> 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
> the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.
>
> Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
> think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
> from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
> quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
> worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
> have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
> on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
> can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
> would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
> weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
> getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
> vulnerable in recent weeks.
>
> Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com <nat...@sky.com> wrote:
>
> > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) -
> Even
> > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday
> and
> > Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our
> nerve
> > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> > needed.
> > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house.
> This
> > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their
> ground)
> > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> > Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
> > pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
> > (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need
> > to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and
> knock
> > us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> > All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> > away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherha

Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Simon Hart]

There was a lot about Leeds that concerned me as a play off club!

Reading are not a good team but they comfortably beat us. Whatever is going
on with Janson needs sorting. We are loosing confidence with Cooper in the
team, he's a liability.


On 3 April 2017 at 16:03, David W  wrote:

> There was nothing about Reading that concerned me as a play off opponent.
> Dull bland little club, who will be excited to just make the play-offs as
> an achievements in itself. They don't strike me as having the hunger and
> drive for it. I think a rabid full house at Elland Road would dispatch
> them.
>
> In a final frankly anything could happen, but we feel like a team with more
> big match personalities / performances in it than in previous years.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 4:00 PM, Rob Heath  wrote:
>
> > If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.
> >
> > I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
> > into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
> > number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
> >
> > 1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
> > down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the
> 100th
> > time are still even.
> >
> > Or are they?
> >
> > 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
> > if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
> > being heads are greater.
> >
> > Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
> > occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out
> of
> > 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe
> that's
> > the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this
> time.
> >
> > Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I
> didn't
> > think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
> > from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
> > quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
> > worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
> > have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them
> 2-1
> > on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
> > can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
> > would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
> > weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
> > getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
> > vulnerable in recent weeks.
> >
> > Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!
> >
> > On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com  wrote:
> >
> > > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15
> points
> > > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) -
> > Even
> > > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday
> > and
> > > Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> > > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> > > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our
> > nerve
> > > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the
> 15
> > > needed.
> > > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton
> and
> > > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> > > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to
> just
> > > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house.
> > This
> > > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very
> good.
> > > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> > > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their
> > ground)
> > > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton
> will
> > > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> > > Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle
> and
> > > pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3
> games
> > > (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday
> need
> > > to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and
> > knock
> > > us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> > > All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> > > away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope
> > > Rotherham do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for
> us
> > > and a draw for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8
> points
> > > above them with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and
> win
> > > for them and the gap is suddenly only 3 points 

Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Jim Moran]

You should get a job at Opta, Sean.

On 3 April 2017 at 16:15, {broken-address} <
seanscr...@aol.com-is-broken.gn.apc.org> wrote:

> Rob,
>
>
> Leeds have failed to win it all in far more than the most recent seven
> "last four" appearances. Since "Clarke... 1-0!" we have made at least the
> last four in the following 15 knock-out/winner-take-all contests, and
> failed to win any of them:
>
>
> FA Cup: 1973, 1977, 1987
> League Cup: 1978, 1979, 1991, 1996
> European Cup/Champions League: 1975, 2001
> UEFA Cup: 2000
> European Cup Winners' Cup: 1973
> Playoffs: 1987, 2006, 2008, 2009
>
>
> Cheers!
>
>
> Sean
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Rob Heath <rhe...@hkis.edu.hk>
> To: nattan <nat...@sky.com>
> Cc: leeds list <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
> Sent: Mon, Apr 3, 2017 10:01 am
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.
>
> I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
> into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
> number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
>
> 1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
> down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
> time are still even.
>
> Or are they?
>
> 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
> if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
> being heads are greater.
>
> Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
> occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
> 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
> the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.
>
> Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
> think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
> from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
> quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
> worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
> have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
> on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
> can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
> would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
> weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
> getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
> vulnerable in recent weeks.
>
> Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com <nat...@sky.com> wrote:
>
> > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) -
> Even
> > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday
> and
> > Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our
> nerve
> > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> > needed.
> > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house.
> This
> > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their
> ground)
> > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> > Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
> > pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
> > (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need
> > to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and
> knock
> > us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> > All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> > away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope
&

Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[{broken-address}]

Rob,


Leeds have failed to win it all in far more than the most recent seven "last 
four" appearances. Since "Clarke... 1-0!" we have made at least the last four 
in the following 15 knock-out/winner-take-all contests, and failed to win any 
of them:


FA Cup: 1973, 1977, 1987
League Cup: 1978, 1979, 1991, 1996
European Cup/Champions League: 1975, 2001
UEFA Cup: 2000
European Cup Winners' Cup: 1973
Playoffs: 1987, 2006, 2008, 2009


Cheers!


Sean



-Original Message-
From: Rob Heath <rhe...@hkis.edu.hk>
To: nattan <nat...@sky.com>
Cc: leeds list <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
Sent: Mon, Apr 3, 2017 10:01 am
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.

I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.

1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
time are still even.

Or are they?

2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
being heads are greater.

Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.

Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
vulnerable in recent weeks.

Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!

On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com <nat...@sky.com> wrote:

> So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) - Even
> better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday and
> Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our nerve
> in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> needed.
> So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house. This
> makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their ground)
> but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
> pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
> (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need
> to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and knock
> us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope
> Rotherham do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us
> and a draw for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points
> above them with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win
> for them and the gap is suddenly only 3 points with 6 to go)
> I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and
> buts' and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !
>
> Dave
>
>
>
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/m

Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[David W]

There was nothing about Reading that concerned me as a play off opponent.
Dull bland little club, who will be excited to just make the play-offs as
an achievements in itself. They don't strike me as having the hunger and
drive for it. I think a rabid full house at Elland Road would dispatch them.

In a final frankly anything could happen, but we feel like a team with more
big match personalities / performances in it than in previous years.



On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 4:00 PM, Rob Heath  wrote:

> If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.
>
> I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
> into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
> number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.
>
> 1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
> down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
> time are still even.
>
> Or are they?
>
> 2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
> if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
> being heads are greater.
>
> Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
> occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
> 10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
> the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.
>
> Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
> think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
> from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
> quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
> worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
> have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
> on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
> can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
> would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
> weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
> getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
> vulnerable in recent weeks.
>
> Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com  wrote:
>
> > So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> > get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) -
> Even
> > better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday
> and
> > Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> > We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> > with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our
> nerve
> > in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> > needed.
> > So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> > Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> > Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> > roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house.
> This
> > makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> > Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> > most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their
> ground)
> > but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> > most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> > Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
> > pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
> > (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need
> > to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and
> knock
> > us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> > All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> > away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope
> > Rotherham do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us
> > and a draw for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points
> > above them with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win
> > for them and the gap is suddenly only 3 points with 6 to go)
> > I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and
> > buts' and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !
> >
> > Dave
> >
> >
> >
> > ___
> > Leedslist mailing list
> > Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> > uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> > To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
> >
> >
> > MARCHING ON TOGETHER
> >
> ___
> 

Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Rob Heath]

If we make the playoffs, I am cautiously optimistic.

I have read comments on various fora about how, historically, once we get
into a "last 4" situation, we never end up winners. However, there are a
number of ways to look at that, not just the "we never do well" approach.

1) The "Rosencrantz & Guildenstern" scenario: if a tossed coin has come
down tails 99  times out of 99, the odds of it coming down tails the 100th
time are still even.

Or are they?

2) If the odds are that 100 tosses will yield 50 tails and 50 heads, then
if there has been no heads in 99 attempts, then the chances of the 100th
being heads are greater.

Or..if you accept that any football club will triumph
occasionally in "last 4" situations, with a probability of perhaps 3 out of
10, then the fact that Leeds have failed in their last 7 (I believe that's
the count) attempts just makes it more likely that we'll succeed this time.

Specifically, I reckon we could get past Reading in a two-legger. I didn't
think we played that badly on saturday. Their goal was a brilliant shot
from Cormorant or whatever he's called...it was way above 2nd Div
quality. I know they had a few other chances, but somehow I never felt
worried by them. If it hadn't been for that one great shot, I think we'd
have got a nice 0-0 out of it. Even with that shot, we still beat them 2-1
on aggregate. I doubt very much if Termite-ant, or whatever he is called,
can produce another shot like that. Then a final v Udders or Fulham? I
would have been very pessimistic about beating the dog botherers a few
weeks ago, but if they continue their recent wobble, they are going to be
getatable. Ditto Fulham, or even Wendiesthey've looked more
vulnerable in recent weeks.

Of course, that is all IF we can get into the bloody playoffs!

On Mon, Apr 3, 2017 at 5:51 PM, nat...@sky.com  wrote:

> So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points
> get us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) - Even
> better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday and
> Fulham cannot both get 21 points
> We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams
> with no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our nerve
> in front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
> needed.
> So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
> Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
> Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
> roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house. This
> makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
> Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will
> most likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their ground)
> but how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will
> most likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
> Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
> pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
> (win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need
> to get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and knock
> us out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
> All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham
> away to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope
> Rotherham do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us
> and a draw for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points
> above them with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win
> for them and the gap is suddenly only 3 points with 6 to go)
> I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and
> buts' and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !
>
> Dave
>
>
>
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
>
>
> MARCHING ON TOGETHER
>
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Peter Castlehouse]

I am so glad you did the maths, cos the whole thing is doing my head in too!
Thanks for putting it into perspective Dave!

OzPete

-Original Message-
From: Leedslist [mailto:leedslist-boun...@gn.apc.org] On Behalf Of
nat...@sky.com
Sent: Monday, 3 April 2017 7:52 PM
To: leeds list
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points get
us promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) - Even
better Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday and
Fulham cannot both get 21 points 
We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams with
no real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our nerve in
front of what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15
needed.
So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and
Wigan - not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable -
Brentford have nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just
roll over, especially at home and especially in front of a full house. This
makes tomorrow a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will most
likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their ground) but
how often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will most
likely fighting for their lives when we play them.
Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and
pick up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games
(win one and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need to
get at least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and knock us
out of play offs - I cannot see this happening
All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham away
to Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope Rotherham
do have that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us and a draw
for Sheff would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points above them
with 6 games to go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win for them and
the gap is suddenly only 3 points with 6 to go)
I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and
buts' and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !

Dave

 
  
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[nat...@sky.com]

So 7 games left and a 6 pt gap over 7th place - mathematically 15 points get us 
promoted (subject to us keeping our superior goal difference) - Even better 
Fulham have to play both Sheff Wed and Huddersfield so Wednesday and Fulham 
cannot both get 21 points 
We have 3 winnable home games - Preston, Wolves and Norwich - all teams with no 
real chance of play offs or relegation- so IF we can keep our nerve in front of 
what should be sell out home games that gives us 9 of the 15 needed.
So at a maximum we need to win two from Brentford, Newcastle, Burton and Wigan 
- not likely to win at Newcastle but the others are winnable - Brentford have 
nothing tangible to play for but no team is likely to just roll over, 
especially at home and especially in front of a full house. This makes tomorrow 
a massive game - 3 points and things will look very good.
Burton and Wigan are both near the bottom for a reason , and Wigan will most 
likely be down by the time we play them ((and take over their ground) but how 
often does a relegated team suddenly start winning ? Burton will most likely 
fighting for their lives when we play them.
Realistically I think we can win the 3 home games, lose at Newcastle and pick 
up between 2 (2 draws and a defeat) or 5 points in the other 3 games (win one 
and draw 2) - so we gain 11-14 points- this means Wednesday need to get at 
least 18 points from their last 7 games to overtake us and knock us out of play 
offs - I cannot see this happening
All makes tomorrow night very important - us away at Brentford, Fulham away to 
Derby , and Sheff Wed away to relegated Rotherham - lets hope Rotherham do have 
that 'bounce' that relegated teams have - a win for us and a draw for Sheff 
would be a massive morale boost and put us 8 points above them with 6 games to 
go - fingers crossed ( a defeat for us and win for them and the gap is suddenly 
only 3 points with 6 to go)
I love the fact that we have something to play for but all these 'ifs and buts' 
and maths just gets inside my head and dominates everything I do !

Dave

 
  
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[{broken-address} Graham White]

Hey the script has been written, we'll get to the playoff finals where we will 
lose to a disputed penalty in the 27th minute of extra-time.

It's what being a Leeds fan is all about!
 Graham White

 

On Sunday, 2 April 2017, 20:09, Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com> wrote:
 

 Okay - I was just counting finals. Phew, my memory isn't as bad as I...

What was the question?

Ted

On 2 Apr 2017 7:04 p.m., "David W" <davidwool...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Not a final but we lost in Semis to Millwall.
>
>
>  Original Message
> From: Ted
> Sent: Sunday, 2 April 2017 20:00
> To: seanscr...@aol.com
> Cc: leedslist
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> On 2 Apr 2017 6:36 p.m., <seanscr...@aol.com> wrote:
>
> 5th time, if you count 1987.
>
>
> I thought I was Sean...
> 87 v Charlton
> 2006 (ish) v Watford
> 2009 (ish) v Donny
>
> My memory's gone - what was the other?
>
> Ted
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> And if I were a betting man (and not an LUFC supporter) I'd bet against us.
> Simple reason: despite making at least the last four more times than I can
> count in any number of knock-out tournaments (and the play-offs are a
> knock-out competition) since I began supporting the club in 1973, we have
> never won one. I do not expect that pattern to change this year.
>
> Cheers!
>
> Sean
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com>
> To: John Boocock <j...@boocock.net>
> Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
> Sent: Sun, Apr 2, 2017 12:30 pm
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.
>
> 4th time lucky?
>
>
>
> On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <j...@boocock.net> wrote:
>
> > So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
> >
> > Betty
> >
> > Sent from the North of England
> > ___
> > Leedslist mailing list
> > Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> > uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> > To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
> >
> >
> > MARCHING ON TOGETHER
> >
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
>
>
> MARCHING ON TOGETHER
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> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
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>
>
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Ted]

Okay - I was just counting finals. Phew, my memory isn't as bad as I...

What was the question?

Ted

On 2 Apr 2017 7:04 p.m., "David W" <davidwool...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Not a final but we lost in Semis to Millwall.
>
>
>   Original Message
> From: Ted
> Sent: Sunday, 2 April 2017 20:00
> To: seanscr...@aol.com
> Cc: leedslist
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> On 2 Apr 2017 6:36 p.m., <seanscr...@aol.com> wrote:
>
> 5th time, if you count 1987.
>
>
> I thought I was Sean...
> 87 v Charlton
> 2006 (ish) v Watford
> 2009 (ish) v Donny
>
> My memory's gone - what was the other?
>
> Ted
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> And if I were a betting man (and not an LUFC supporter) I'd bet against us.
> Simple reason: despite making at least the last four more times than I can
> count in any number of knock-out tournaments (and the play-offs are a
> knock-out competition) since I began supporting the club in 1973, we have
> never won one. I do not expect that pattern to change this year.
>
> Cheers!
>
> Sean
>
>
>
> -Original Message-----
> From: Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com>
> To: John Boocock <j...@boocock.net>
> Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
> Sent: Sun, Apr 2, 2017 12:30 pm
> Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
>
> Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.
>
> 4th time lucky?
>
>
>
> On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <j...@boocock.net> wrote:
>
> > So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
> >
> > Betty
> >
> > Sent from the North of England
> > ___
> > Leedslist mailing list
> > Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> > uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> > To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
> >
> >
> > MARCHING ON TOGETHER
> >
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
>
>
> MARCHING ON TOGETHER
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> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[David W]

Not a final but we lost in Semis to Millwall.


  Original Message  
From: Ted
Sent: Sunday, 2 April 2017 20:00
To: seanscr...@aol.com
Cc: leedslist
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

On 2 Apr 2017 6:36 p.m., <seanscr...@aol.com> wrote:

5th time, if you count 1987.


I thought I was Sean...
87 v Charlton
2006 (ish) v Watford
2009 (ish) v Donny

My memory's gone - what was the other?

Ted













And if I were a betting man (and not an LUFC supporter) I'd bet against us.
Simple reason: despite making at least the last four more times than I can
count in any number of knock-out tournaments (and the play-offs are a
knock-out competition) since I began supporting the club in 1973, we have
never won one. I do not expect that pattern to change this year.

Cheers!

Sean



-Original Message-
From: Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com>
To: John Boocock <j...@boocock.net>
Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
Sent: Sun, Apr 2, 2017 12:30 pm
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.

4th time lucky?



On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <j...@boocock.net> wrote:

> So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
>
> Betty
>
> Sent from the North of England
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
>
>
> MARCHING ON TOGETHER
>
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Ted]

On 2 Apr 2017 6:36 p.m., <seanscr...@aol.com> wrote:

5th time, if you count 1987.


I thought I was Sean...
87 v Charlton
2006 (ish) v Watford
2009 (ish) v Donny

My memory's gone - what was the other?

Ted













And if I were a betting man (and not an LUFC supporter) I'd bet against us.
Simple reason: despite making at least the last four more times than I can
count in any number of knock-out tournaments (and the play-offs are a
knock-out competition) since I began supporting the club in 1973, we have
never won one. I do not expect that pattern to change this year.

Cheers!

Sean



-Original Message-
From: Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com>
To: John Boocock <j...@boocock.net>
Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
Sent: Sun, Apr 2, 2017 12:30 pm
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.

4th time lucky?



On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <j...@boocock.net> wrote:

> So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
>
> Betty
>
> Sent from the North of England
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
>
>
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Dr Michael Benjamin]

I do not think we are ready to go up this year. 
We'd come right back down again. We need shut of Cellino. 

|-Original Message-
|From: Leedslist [mailto:leedslist-boun...@gn.apc.org] On Behalf Of {broken-
|address}
|Sent: Sunday, April 2, 2017 8:36 PM
|To: tedhea...@gmail.com; j...@boocock.net
|Cc: leedslist@gn.apc.org
|Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
|
|5th time, if you count 1987.
|
|
|And if I were a betting man (and not an LUFC supporter) I'd bet against us.
|Simple reason: despite making at least the last four more times than I can
count
|in any number of knock-out tournaments (and the play-offs are a knock-out
|competition) since I began supporting the club in 1973, we have never won
one.
|I do not expect that pattern to change this year.
|
|
|Cheers!
|
|
|Sean
|
|
|
|-Original Message-
|From: Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com>
|To: John Boocock <j...@boocock.net>
|Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
|Sent: Sun, Apr 2, 2017 12:30 pm
|Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left
|
|Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.
|
|4th time lucky?
|
|
|
|On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <j...@boocock.net> wrote:
|
|> So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
|>
|> Betty
|>
|> Sent from the North of England
|> ___
|> Leedslist mailing list
|> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
|> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
|> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
|>
|>
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|>
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[{broken-address}]

5th time, if you count 1987.


And if I were a betting man (and not an LUFC supporter) I'd bet against us. 
Simple reason: despite making at least the last four more times than I can 
count in any number of knock-out tournaments (and the play-offs are a knock-out 
competition) since I began supporting the club in 1973, we have never won one. 
I do not expect that pattern to change this year.


Cheers!


Sean



-Original Message-
From: Ted <tedhea...@gmail.com>
To: John Boocock <j...@boocock.net>
Cc: leedslist <leedslist@gn.apc.org>
Sent: Sun, Apr 2, 2017 12:30 pm
Subject: Re: [LU] 7 matches left

Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.

4th time lucky?



On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <j...@boocock.net> wrote:

> So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
>
> Betty
>
> Sent from the North of England
> ___
> Leedslist mailing list
> Info and options: http://mailman.greennet.org.
> uk/mailman/listinfo/leedslist
> To unsubscribe, email leedslist-unsubscr...@gn.apc.org
>
>
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[John Boocock]

   My thinking exactly

   Sent from the North of England

   On 2 Apr 2017 17:30, Ted  wrote:

   Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.A
   4th time lucky?

   On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock" <[1]j...@boocock.net> wrote:

 So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
 Betty
 Sent from the North of England
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Re: [LU] 7 matches left

[Ted]

Beat Reading in semis, meet Fulham in the final.

4th time lucky?



On 2 Apr 2017 5:25 p.m., "John Boocock"  wrote:

> So what do people think, Wembley or bust?
>
> Betty
>
> Sent from the North of England
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> MARCHING ON TOGETHER
>
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[LU] 7 matches left

[John Boocock]

So what do people think, Wembley or bust?

Betty

Sent from the North of England
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