Re: [LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse
Cheer up, By some accounts, there'll probably be nobody around to be bothered by the collapse: http://www.globalresearch.ca/near-term-human-extinction-a-conversation-with-guy-mcpherson/5373909 Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow ... On 7/04/2014 8:12 PM, Stephen Loosley wrote: This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial inequality and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer “a precipitous collapse” within decades. http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf March 19, 2014 Abstract There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff erent natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specifi c collapses, but ageneral explanation remains elusive. In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o er signifi cant implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic Strati cation or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, inagreement with the historical record. The measure Carrying Capacity is developed and its estimation is shown to be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to two types of collapses arediscussed. The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses foundin history. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably. Summary Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past fi ve thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di fferent causes have been o ffered to explain individual collapses, it is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction between population and natural resources ... In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of natural resources and strong economic strati cation) can independently result in a complete collapse. Given economic strati cation, collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of economic strati cation, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is too high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion. In the upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several extensions ... -- David Boxall | Cheer up they said. | Things could be worse. http://david.boxall.id.au| So I cheered up and, | Sure enough, things got worse. | --Murphy's musing ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse
A very old topic. Three great things come to mind in response: 1) http://thoughtmaybe.com/arithmetic-population-and-energy/ (1992) 2) http://thoughtmaybe.com/derrick-jensen-endgame/ (2006) 3) http://thoughtmaybe.com/can-this-current-way-of-life-continue/ (2012) Enjoy, Jore On 7/04/2014 8:12 PM, Stephen Loosley wrote: This recent study, financed by NASA, found that because of financial inequality and environmental problems, the industrial world could suffer a precipitous collapse within decades. http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/files/resources/motesharrei-rivas-kalnay.pdf March 19, 2014 Abstract There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are unsustainable, butpossibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. Collapses have occurred frequently inhistory, often followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Manydiff erent natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specifi c collapses, but ageneral explanation remains elusive. In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding accumulatedwealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans and nature. The modelstructure, and simulated scenarios that o er signifi cant implications, are explained. Fourequations describe the evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The modelshows Economic Strati cation or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, inagreement with the historical record. The measure Carrying Capacity is developed and its estimation is shown to be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to two types of collapses arediscussed. The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses foundin history. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximumcarrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and ifresources are distributed equitably. Summary Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past fi ve thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic regression. Although many di fferent causes have been o ffered to explain individual collapses, it is still necessary to develop a more general explanation. In this paper we attempt to build a mathematical model to explore the essential dynamics of interaction between population and natural resources ... In sum, the results of our experiments indicate that either one of the two features apparent in historical societal collapses (over-exploitation of natural resources and strong economic strati cation) can independently result in a complete collapse. Given economic strati cation, collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes, including major reductions in inequality and population growth rates. Even in the absence of economic strati cation, collapse can still occur if depletion per capita is too high. However, collapse can be avoidedand population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion. In the upcoming generations of HANDY, we plan to develop several extensions ... ___ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
Re: [LINK] O/T: Civilization Collapse
And a specific critique:
http://climateandcapitalism.com/2014/03/31/nasa-collapse-study/
-AA.
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